FAQS final report briefing to Columbus Environment

Fall line Air Quality Study: 

Fall line Air Quality Study Final Report: An analysis of air quality and options for managing it in Middle Georgia Briefing to the Columbus Environmental Task Force March 2, 2005

About the FAQS: 

About the FAQS Goal: to provide all stakeholders with an objective and unbiased evaluation of air quality in Middle Georgia that they may use to develop an effective and efficient plan for improving it. Objectives: to assess urban and regional air pollution, identify the sources of pollutants and pollutant precursors, and evaluate potential solutions to realized and potential poor air quality in the Augusta, Macon, and Columbus metropolitan areas. Methodology: Field Studies, Modeling Studies, and Cost Studies Duration: 44 months (May 2000 – December 2004) Cost: $2.8 million sponsored by GA EPD and GA DOT

Slide3: 

Principal Investigator: Dr. Michael E. Chang Co-Principal Investigators: Dr. Armistead Russell Dr. Karsten Baumann Investigators: Dr. Yongtao Hu Dr. Dan Cohan Ms. Di Tian Ms. Rosa Chi Dr. Rodney Weber Dr. Michael Bergin Dr. Doug Worsnop Dr. Carlos Cardelino Senior Advisors: Dr. C. S. Kiang Dr. William Chameides FAQS: A Mammoth Team Effort! + many more!!

Slide5: 

Ground-level Ozone Formation Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Fuels, Paints, Solvents, & Vegetation Combustion Processes Ozone (O3) Smog +

Slide6: 

Summary of FAQS NOx and VOC emissions inventories for the year 2000: daily totals (in tons/day) a. Includes: Richmond, Columbia, & Mc Duffie counties of GA, and Aiken and Edgefield counties of SC. b. Includes: Muscogee, Chattahoochee, and Harris of GA and Russell county of AL. c. Includes: Bibb, Houston, Jones, Peach, and Twiggs counties of GA.

Slide7: 

Daily maximum ozone on August 17, 2000 in the 12-km grid (on the left) and in the 4-km grid (on the right)

Slide8: 

Summary of FAQS NOx and VOC emissions inventories for the year 2007: daily totals (in tons/day) a. Includes: Richmond, Columbia, & Mc Duffie counties of GA, and Aiken and Edgefield counties of SC. b. Includes: Muscogee, Chattahoochee, and Harris of GA and Russell county of AL. c. Includes: Bibb, Houston, Jones, Peach, and Twiggs counties of GA.

Slide9: 

Daily maximum ozone on August 17, 2000 in the 12-km grid (on the left) and in the 4-km grid (on the right) Daily maximum ozone concentrations in the 12-km grid (on the left) and in the 4-km grid (on the right) on August 17 when FAQS2007 emissions are used

Slide10: 

Estimated Change in Region Maximum of Peak 8-hour Surface Ozone from August 17th, 2000 to 2007 under the Existing Federal Control Strategies (ppbv) Results shown for FAQS 4km grid

Slide11: 

Current Projected (assumes ~10% benefit due to full implementation of existing control strategy for Atlanta and the region)

Slide12: 

Daily maximum ozone on August 17, 2000 in the 12-km grid for FAQS2000, FAQS2007, and FAQS2012 Emissions 2000 2007 2012

Slide13: 

Estimated Change in Region Maximum of Peak 8-hour Surface Ozone from August 17th, 2000 to 2007 to 2012 under the Existing Federal Control Strategies (ppbv) Results shown for FAQS 12km grid

About Ozone Nonattainment in the Columbus Area: 

About Ozone Nonattainment in the Columbus Area By virtue of monitored ozone concentrations (2002-2004 design value = 0.072 ppm), the Columbus area is currently meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (0.085 ppm). FAQS modeling suggests that the Columbus area will continue to attain the standard through 2012 assuming that existing control strategies are fully implemented and that growth projections are reasonable.

But what if Columbus desired to “build in” a greater margin of safety?: 

But what if Columbus desired to “build in” a greater margin of safety? What are the most cost effective means to reduce ozone concentrations?

Slide16: 

Potential Controls for Point Sources in the Columbus Area

Slide17: 

Potential Controls for Additional Sources in the Columbus / Middle GA Area

Slide18: 

Taken together, the menu of measures represents the potential to control 20-35% of NOx and VOC (not shown) in Georgia regions, but with marginal costs increasing rapidly beyond 15-20% reductions

Slide19: 

Emissions and Sensitivity of Ozone to those Emissions in Columbus in 2007 * Negative or Negligible

Slide20: 

Total annual cost (millions of Year 2000 U.S. $) of the least-cost strategy for each monitor as a function of the amount of ozone reduced, based on sensitivity analysis of the August 1999 and August 2000 meteorological episodes, with Year 2007 projected emissions. For each monitor, the curve represents the aggregate cost of implementing measures from any of the regions in order of cost-effectiveness until each level of ozone reduction is attained.

Slide21: 

To Reduce Ozone by 1 ppb Columbus Only: $8.95 million Least-cost: $3.14 million Note: The sensitivity of ozone in Columbus to emissions in Columbus are likely understated. This leads to costs that are overstated as more controls are required to meet objectives.

Slide22: 

 To Reduce Ozone by 2 ppb Least-cost: $58.45 million

Slide23: 

To Reduce Ozone by 3 ppb… …can’t do it.

A Few Words about PM2.5: 

A Few Words about PM2.5 On 17 December 2004, the US EPA designated “nonattainment” areas of the country that failed to meet the fine particulate matter NAAQS including Russell (AL) and Muscogee counties in the Columbus area, and other counties in or near Atlanta, Macon, Athens, Rome, and Chattanooga, TN.

Q: Will the Existing Atlanta/Regional ozone strategy, which helps Columbus with ozone, also help Columbus with PM2.5? : 

Ozone PM2.5 2000 2007 Q: Will the Existing Atlanta/Regional ozone strategy, which helps Columbus with ozone, also help Columbus with PM2.5? A: Not likely. FAQS modeling shows little change in PM2.5 concentrations resulting from existing state and regional controls enacted for ozone.

Fall line Air Quality Study: 

Fall line Air Quality Study Final Report: An analysis of air quality and options for managing it in Middle Georgia Complete Report and Executive Summary Available at: http://cure.eas.gatech.edu/faqs/finalreport Send Questions and Comments to: chang@eas.gatech.edu