Presentation Transcript
1992 Presidential Election : 1992 Presidential Election By Viky, John, Brad
Context : Context Economy
Shift from Foreign Policy to Domestic Policy Debate
Economy : Economy 1990-1991 Recession
Middle Managers Laid Off
Bush Seen As Out of Touch With Ordinary Families
Too Focused on Foreign Affairs Bush Accepted A Tax Increase
“Read my lips…No New Taxes”
Shift From Foreign to Domestic Policy : Shift From Foreign to Domestic Policy End of Cold War
Malta Summit
Bush and Gorbachev Declare US-Soviet Strategic Partnership
End of Gulf War
US Satisfied with the Way Operation Carried Out
Public Perception of Failure to End the War Properly
Shift From Foreign to Domestic Policy : Shift From Foreign to Domestic Policy Domestic Policy Became the Primary Focus
Reintroduced Divide Amongst Conservatives Regarding Social Issues
Bush Was a Social and Fiscal Moderate
Democratic Primary : Democratic Primary Jerry Brown, Former California Governor
Bill Clinton, Arkansas Governor
Tom Harkin, Iowa Senator
Paul Tsongas, Former Massachusetts Senator
Bob Kerrey, Nebraska Senator
Tom Laughlin, Actor/Director from California
Eugene McCarthy, Former Minnesota Senator/1968 & 1972 Democratic Nominee
Douglas Wilder, Virginia Governor
Charles Woods, Alabama Millionaire
Larry Agran, Mayor of Irvine
Democratic Primary : Democratic Primary Many Well Known Democrats Did Not Bother to Run
Believed Bush to be Unbeatable in Wake of Gulf War
Democratic Nomination : Democratic Nomination Clinton Earns Name “Comeback Kid”
Gennifer Flowers Reveals Adulterous Affair
Bill and Hillary Go On 60 Minutes
Loses New Hampshire by 8 points
Supposed to Lose by at least Double Digits
Labels Himself, “Comeback Kid”
Builds Momentum Going Into Southern Primaries
Democratic Nomination : Democratic Nomination Jerry Brown Makes A Push
Uses Grassroots Strategy via 1-800 Fundraising Technique
Wins Colorado and Connecticut
Still Not Enough to Win Democratic Nomination
Democratic Nomination : Democratic Nomination Results of Democratic Primary
Bill Clinton 3372
Jerry Brown 596
Paul Tsongas 289
Republican Primary : Republican Primary George H.W. Bush
Incumbent US President
Pat Buchanan
Reagan Speechwriter/Advisor
Results of the Republican Primary : Results of the Republican Primary George H.W. Bush: 2166
Patrick J. Buchanan: 18
Alan Keyes: 1
Former ambassador
Republican National Convention : Republican National Convention Bush Wins Nomination Easily
Buchanan’s Successful Opposition Forced Bush to Move Further Right
Adopts Socially Conservative Platform
A Bigger Problem: Pat Buchanan’s “Culture Wars” : A Bigger Problem: Pat Buchanan’s “Culture Wars” “The agenda [Bill] Clinton & [Hillary] Clinton would impose on America -- abortion on demand, a litmus test for the Supreme Court, homosexual rights, discrimination against religious schools, women in combat -- that's change, all right. But it is not the kind of change America wants. It is not the kind of change America needs. And it is not the kind of change we can tolerate in a nation that we still call God's country” Alienates Moderate Republicans
Other Party Nominations : Other Party Nominations Ross Perot, Texas Billionaire
Runs Under Independent Party
The Candidates : The Candidates George H.W. Bush
Incumbent President
Republican
Bill Clinton
Governor of Arkansas
Democrat
Ross Perot
Texas Business Man
Independent
George H.W. Bush : Conservative Republican Platform:
Lower Taxes
Cuts in Government Spending
Strong Foreign Policy
Ran on Prior Experience George H.W. Bush Foreign Policy
President’s best perceived strength was regarded as less important following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East following the defeat of Iraq in the First Gulf War A Significant Problem:
Bush alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes
Infamous phrase at 1988 Republican National Convention
“Read My Lips: No New Taxes”
Sound bite cemented in the public consciousness
Bill Clinton - The Man of Change : “New Democrat”
Higher taxes for the wealthy
Increased spending on education, transportation, and communication
Plan to provide national health care Bill Clinton pledged to conduct "the most ethical administration in the history of the Republic." Bill Clinton - The Man of Change
Henry Ross Perot : Henry Ross Perot Policies:
Balancing the federal budget
Firm pro-abortion stance
Expansion on the war on drugs
Ending outsourcing of jobs
Belief in protectionism on trade
Advocate of eDemocracy to increase citizen participation in public policy decision-making
Increasing transparency and accountability Billionaire American Businessman
Outsider candidate for the office of the President
Warned of national debt
Used own money to advertise
General Election : General Election Bush Ran on Experience and Trust
Prior Military Experience
Former CIA Director
Handled Gulf War Efficiently
Clinton Had No Military Experience
Allegations of Draft Dodging
Seen As Potentially Soft
Went Back to Arkansas to Oversee Execution of Inmate
General Election : General Election Clinton Followed JFK’s Model of Running for Change
Clinton Used Experience in Dealing with Social Issues As Governor
Economic Growth/Job Creation
Education
Healthcare
Represented Bush’s Primary Weaknesses in Policy
Clinton Proposed Increased Government Spending
Enhance Productivity and Growth
Lower the Deficit
General Election : General Election Clinton Character Debate
Allegations
Smoked Pot
But “Didn’t Inhale”
Extra-Marital Affairs
General Election : General Election Perot Led in Polls through July
Dropped Out
Claimed Republican Operatives Were Trying to Disrupt His Daughter’s Wedding
Re-Entered a Couple Weeks Later
Damaged Image
Lost Momentum
General Election : General Election Perot Constantly Reminded Voters of National Debt
Took Away Crucial Moderate and Conservative Votes from Bush
Results : Results Clinton
43% of Popular Vote
370 Electoral Votes
Bush
37.4% of Popular Vote
168 Electoral Votes
Perot
18.9% of Popular Votes
No Electoral Votes
Analysis : Analysis Clinton 1st Democratic President in 12 Years
Democrats Take Control of Both Houses
First Time Since Jimmy Carter Was Elected
Clinton Wins With the Smallest Plurality in History
Perot Garnered Largest Percentage of Popular Vote for 3rd Party Candidate in 80 Years
Analysis : Analysis Perot’s Success
Perot Voters Would Have Been Split Evenly Between Bush and Clinton
However, Bush Would Have Won More Electoral Votes
Issue of Abortion Not Discussed
Exit Polls Indicated Pro-Choice Republicans Defected from Bush
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