Global Cities: From Babylon to Exurbia : Global Cities: From Babylon to Exurbia Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Senior Fellow, New America Foundation Global Cities Speaker Program Munk Centre for International Studies University of Toronto March 14, 2005


Rise and Fall of Cities: Rise and Fall of Cities “Human prosperity does not abide long in one place” Herodotus Greek Historian 5th Century BC


Key Factors for Decline: Key Factors for Decline Inability to absorb newcomers Lack of upward mobility Inattention to basic infrastructure and day to day livability Lack of security Loss of Moral Compass


Looking Backward in Urban History: Looking Backward in Urban History Early Cities were places sacred, safe and busy As cities grew, the need to plan and develop green space evolved Cities did best that were cosmopolitan and open to entrepreneurs The industrial revolution leads to the multi-polar, suburbanized city LA as “original in the Xerox machine”


The First Great Metropolis:: The First Great Metropolis: Among world’s largest cities for 1500 years Endured numerous “regime changes” due in part to its “sacred” religious, and cultural role By the time of Herodotus, 5th Century BCE city had estimated population of 250,000 and extended for 14 miles by 6 miles First complex development of “urban gardens” here and in other major Mesopotamian cities Babylon “the Gate of the Gods”


The Early Asian City: Homes to Kings, Bureaucrats, Soldiers : The Early Asian City: Homes to Kings, Bureaucrats, Soldiers Capital cities served as religious, political centers, with outer walls for defense and interior walls around the palace Running of state was primary task “It is the sovereign alone who establishes the capital” --- the Confucian classic, Zhou Li Capitals shifted with each “regime change”


The Islamic City: The Islamic City Religion conceived by urban merchant, Mohammed Islam thinks of urban ideal as “celestial garden” The city central to Islam as “places men pray together”


An Urban Ideal: Delhi in 16th and 17th Centuries: An Urban Ideal: Delhi in 16th and 17th Centuries “A Garden of Eden that is inhabited”


Asia’s Urban Decline: Asia’s Urban Decline Loss of interest in trade and exploration after 1500 Greater wealth among elites made them turn away from seeking contact with outside world for trade or knowledge Autocracy suppressed entrepreneurs in India, the Ottoman Empire, China and elsewhere Seeds of resurgence--- “Queens of the Further East” like Bombay, Calcutta, Hong Kong and Singapore


Slide10: “Attacks on people’s property remove the incentive to acquire and gain property” Ibn Khaldun 14th Century Arab historian


European Re-Urbanization: European Re-Urbanization Less than 5 percent of Europeans lived in towns and cities by 7th Century From meager beginnings in 12th Century, European cities begin to grow Compact, commercially driven cities, with wide latitude for trade Search for spices, silk and other luxuries drives trade east


The Cosmopolitan City: The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened.” The Cosmopolitan City French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and London in the early Modern Period


The Crisis of the Industrial City: The Crisis of the Industrial City Cities grow with enormous rapidity…in 1850 Britain first country with an urban majority Industrialization makes pollution and other health hazards critical Middle Class and aristocrats look for a way out Working Class dissatisfaction rises


Industrial cities boosted crowding dramatically: Industrial cities boosted crowding dramatically Urban Land Use 1400-1850 Square meters/Person


Victorian Industrial City: Victorian Industrial City


Urban Disaster: Urban Disaster “The cottages are very small, old and dirty, while the streets are uneven, party unpaved, not properly drained and full of ruts. Heaps of refuse, offal and sickening filth are everywhere interspersed with pools of stagnant liquid. The atmosphere is polluted by the stench and is darkened by the smoke of a dozen factory chimneys.” Frederick Engels on Manchester in 1844


Bringing Order to the Industrial City: Paris: Bringing Order to the Industrial City: Paris “Let us open new streets, let us clean up the populous streets that lack air and daylight. Let the beneficial light of the sun everywhere penetrate our walls.” Napoleon III,1850


Haussmann’s Paris : Haussmann’s Paris


Slide19: “Town and country must be married and out of this joyous union will spring a new hope, a new life, a new civilization.” Ebenezer Howard The British Alternative: The Garden City


Progressive Reform: Progressive Reform Reformers in Britain, US, Canada and other industrial countries develop new sanitation systems “sewer socialism” Development of parks in cities in Europe, North America and Australia Commuter trains spur development of suburbs to bring people to the countryside


The Evolution of Global Cities: The Evolution of Global Cities London and Paris --- 1750 New York and Chicago --- 1900 Tokyo, Los Angeles, Hong Kong --- 1970s Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Sao Paolo --- 1980s Shanghai, Beijing, Mumbai , Toronto, Houston --- 1990s Many more to come from Phoenix, Bangalore to Kuala Lumpur Declustering: The Revenge of the Smaller Cities?


The Global City in Modern Times: The Global City in Modern Times Spread of Urbanism Shift from Europe to Asia Technology and de-clustering in western metropolitan areas Rise of smaller hubs (Bangalore,Tel Aviv, Singapore) A new phenomenon: Cities that grow and become less important Prospects for Toronto, Canada and the Aspirational City


An Urbanizing World: An Urbanizing World People in Urban Areas


Growth in Urban Population: Growth in Urban Population


The European Era: The European Era Largest cities1900 London New York Paris Berlin Chicago Vienna Tokyo St. Petersburg Philadelphia Manchester Birmingham Moscow Source: Villes et Campagnes, Paris, 1988


Urbanity Shifts towards Asia: Urbanity Shifts towards Asia Largest Cities 1950 New York London Rhineland (Germany) Tokyo Shanghai Paris Buenas Aires Chicago Moscow Calcutta Los Angeles Osaka Source: Villes et Campagnes, Paris, 1988


European Cities Gone from the Top : European Cities Gone from the Top Largest Cities 1994 Tokyo New York Sao Paulo Mexico City Shanghai Mumbai Los Angeles Beijing Calcutta Seoul Jakarta Source: World Bank


In the United States, Canada and Australia the Single Family Home Predominated as “The Universal Aspiration”: In the United States, Canada and Australia the Single Family Home Predominated as “The Universal Aspiration” “The suburban house is the idealization of every immigrant’s dream--- the vassal’s dream of his own castle. Europeans who come here are delighted by our suburbs. Not to live in an apartment! It is a universal aspiration to own your own home.” —Los Angeles urbanist Edgardo Contini


Paradigm Shift: Median Population Growth By Decade: Paradigm Shift: Median Population Growth By Decade Source: US Census - Rappaport


Declustering in US: 1995-2000 Migration Trends: Declustering in US: 1995-2000 Migration Trends


Domestic Migrationby Population of Area 2000-2004: Domestic Migration by Population of Area 2000-2004 Millions


Despite Some Back-to-the-City Movement, More People Are Still Leaving for the Suburbs: Despite Some Back-to-the-City Movement, More People Are Still Leaving for the Suburbs Source: Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.


Minorities to suburbs: Minorities to suburbs Percentage of Population Residing In Suburbs by Race/Ethnicity 1990-2000


Another Kind of Diversity:Suburb and Central City Household Change by Household Type, 1990-2000: Another Kind of Diversity: Suburb and Central City Household Change by Household Type, 1990-2000 Metro Areas with Population Over 500,000


Declustering: A Global Perspective: Declustering: A Global Perspective Percentage Change in Population 1965 - 2000 Source: Demographia


Vancouver Growth Pattern : Vancouver Growth Pattern Source: Demographia


Montreal Urban/Suburban Balance: Montreal Urban/Suburban Balance Source: Demographia


Toronto: The Los Angeles of the North”: Toronto: The Los Angeles of the North” A vast, sprawling relatively dense region with 20 percent of Canada’s Urban Population (only greater LA is more dense in North America) Metro area growing rapidly Population in suburbs is almost as dense as in the city Immigration key factor in growth Demographer Wendell Cox


Toronto Growth Pattern: Toronto Growth Pattern Source: Demographia


Wide-flung Density: Wide-flung Density People per square km Source: Demographia


Canadian CitiesPopulation Growth (1991-2001): Canadian Cities Population Growth (1991-2001) Source: Demographia


Economic Declustering: US Job Growth Remains Centered in Low- and Moderate-density Areas: Economic Declustering: US Job Growth Remains Centered in Low- and Moderate-density Areas Source; Joint Center Tabulations of the Regional Economic Information System (REIS) database County Population Density Low High Average Employment Growth (%)1990-1998


Changing Economic Order Job Growth by Metro Area 2001-2005: Changing Economic Order Job Growth by Metro Area 2001-2005 Source: Michael Shires for Inc. Magazine


Increasing Insecurity in NYC: Increasing Insecurity in NYC Source: Securities Industry Association


Declustering: Business Service Growth by Metro Region 2002-2005: Declustering: Business Service Growth by Metro Region 2002-2005


Job Growth (Jan 2005-Jan 2006): Job Growth (Jan 2005-Jan 2006) Source: stat can


Canadian Declustering: Canadian Declustering Job Growth Around CBD 1996 - 2001 Source stat.can


Again the LA Pattern: Again the LA Pattern Downtown Jobs as Percent of Region Source: Demographia


Global Perspective Technology Shifts the Locational Paradigm: Global Perspective Technology Shifts the Locational Paradigm New Technology could telescope the distance between communities Corporate functions can be more efficiently dispersed to suburbs Technology turns former backwaters into potential global hubs Bigness less important than efficiency (Rise of Tel Aviv and Singapore)


Telecommunications Changes Everything: Telecommunications Changes Everything Monthly Cost of leasing a line from Bangalore to Los Angeles source:Oncept,Inc.


Vast Differences on a Global LevelInternet Users per 10,000: Vast Differences on a Global Level Internet Users per 10,000 Source: Nationmaster, Inc.


Cities with an Obscured Future: Cities with an Obscured Future “She knew neither the sea or the mountains, mustard bloom, the meeting of sun and horizon, ripeness of medlar trees, nor any simple loveliness.” Carlos Fuentes, describing a resident of Mexico City’s slums, in Where the Air is Clear


A Regional Tragedy: A Regional Tragedy The whole Middle East stands in danger of being “left behind again” in the information age just as had occurred in the industrial era. --- Syrian scholar Sami Khiyami, 2003


In Asia, The Vertical City: One Possible Urban Future: In Asia, The Vertical City: One Possible Urban Future “glass skyscrapers would rise like crystals, clean and transparent in the midst of the foliage of trees”. -Le Corbusier


Is the Future of the Vertical Cityin East Asia?: Is the Future of the Vertical City in East Asia? Taipei 101 (2004) Petronas Tower1 Kuala Lumpur (1998) Petronas Tower2 Kuala Lumpur (1998) Sears Tower, Chicago (1974) Jin Mao Building, Shanghai (1999) Civic Plaza, Guangzhou (1996) Shun Hing Square, Shenzen (1996) Empire State Building, New York (1931) Central Plaza, Hong Kong, 1996 The Tallest Buildings, 2006


The Problem with Verticality and Ultra-High Prices Plunging Birthrates/Aging Populations: The Problem with Verticality and Ultra-High Prices Plunging Birthrates/Aging Populations Source – indexmundi.com Birth Rates per 1000


The Ephemeral City: The Future of the Core in the West?: The Ephemeral City: The Future of the Core in the West? “a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of concourse and rendezvous.” H.G. Wells ---description of urban centers in the future,


The Ephemeral City: The Ephemeral City Cities with low percentages of Children Lifestyle Orientation Declining Economic Role Examples: San Francisco Berlin Vienna Portland Amsterdam


Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities: Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin Kevin Starr on San Francisco “Poor but sexy." “A cross between Carmel and Calcutta”


Demographics – U.S. Cohort Changes: Demographics – U.S. Cohort Changes Percent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S. Cities


Population Trends Selected Cities: Trend towards Sprawling, Multipolar Cities 2000-2004: Population Trends Selected Cities: Trend towards Sprawling, Multipolar Cities 2000-2004


Toronto and the Future of Cities in the Countries of Aspiration : Toronto and the Future of Cities in the Countries of Aspiration Younger Demographics Evolving successful multi-ethnic societies Greater Land Mass/Ability to spread Great Resource Base Anglo-Saxon Political System


Countries of Aspiration: The Immigrant Factor: Countries of Aspiration: The Immigrant Factor Source: UN, Nationmaster.com (percent foreign population)


World-Nations: New Citizens, 2000: World-Nations: New Citizens, 2000 898,000 214,600 #1 in world Source: Nationmaster.com, UN per thousand 70000


Making Babies, Fertility Rates: Making Babies, Fertility Rates Source: CIA


Healthier Long Term Demographics—a Younger Future Population Growth Rates, 2004: Healthier Long Term Demographics— a Younger Future Population Growth Rates, 2004


Getting Older Slower: Getting Older Slower Population Over 65 Source: CIA


Room to Grow Total Arable Land: Room to Grow Total Arable Land


Arable Land Per Capita: Arable Land Per Capita Hectares


Economic Dynamism: Countries of OpportunityInflation-adjusted GDP growth 2002- 2005: Economic Dynamism: Countries of Opportunity Inflation-adjusted GDP growth 2002- 2005 Source: CIA


Best Course for Metropolitan Areas: Getting Back to Basics: Build on advantages of urban life such as culture, shorter commutes, religious institutions Stress basic improvements in schools, neighborhoods, infrastructure, business climate, preserve some economic function Address middle class flight and keep families around as long as possible Building an Archipelago of Villages Best Course for Metropolitan Areas: Getting Back to Basics


The New Suburbanism: Learning to Live with Sprawl: The New Suburbanism: Learning to Live with Sprawl Housing near jobs Emphasis on families Strong role for village shopping streets and markets Provision of open space around the village core and housing estates Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl


The Big Trend: Digital Impact: The Big Trend: Digital Impact Source: US Decennial Census Percent change by mode, journey to work 1980-2000


The Future Beckons: Towards an Archipelago of Villages : The Future Beckons: Towards an Archipelago of Villages The dispersed, multi-polar city is here to stay The biggest opportunity for community building and economic growth will lie in suburban in-fill and the periphery Time to stop complaining about historical trends, and learn to adapt to them Digital technology offers huge, long-term opportunities for dispersed, livable cities The goal remains: making places sacred, safe and busy whether in city, suburb or exurb