NASA Climate Variability

Slide1: 

Agenda Opening Remarks M. Cleave Program Overview J. Kaye Earth Science Applications R. Birk Science Research and Products for CCRI Carbon, Ecosystem, & Land Cover/Use Sciences D. Wickland Water Cycle J. Entin Climate Variability W. Abdalati Atmospheric Composition P. DeCola Computational Earth System Modeling R. Rood Summary J. Kaye

Science Questions from the Research Strategy: 

Variability Forcing Response Consequence Prediction Precipitation, evaporation & cycling of water changing? Global ocean circulation varying? Global ecosystems changing? Stratospheric ozone changing? Ice cover mass changing? Motions of Earth & interior processes? Atmospheric constituents & solar radiation on climate? Changes in land cover & land use? Surface transformation? Clouds & surface hydrological processes on climate? Ecosystem responses & affects on global carbon cycle? Changes in global ocean circulation? Stratospheric trace constituent responses? Sea level affected by climate change? Pollution effects? Weather variation related to climate variation? Consequences in land cover & land use? Coastal region change? Weather forecasting improvement? Transient climate variations? Trends in long-term climate? Future atmospheric chemical impacts? Future concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane? Science Questions from the Research Strategy Primarily Climate Variability Related to Climate Variability Other Elements of our Program

Slide3: 

Agricultural Competitiveness Air Quality Community Growth Invasive Species Water Management Disaster Preparedness Coastal Management Homeland Security Carbon Management Aviation Safety Energy Forecasting Public Health ESE National Applications

Research Challenges: 

Research Challenges Separating short-term oscillatory processes from long term changes Adequately characterizing and modeling climate feedbacks, especially clouds Achieving adequate representations of ocean and atmospheric processes at resolutions coarse enough to enable their use in climate studies. Establishing how high latitude climate interacts with lower latitude climate (e.g. through thermohaline circulation) Improving the model couplings between ocean, atmosphere, and ice models In order to reduce prediction uncertainty and separate human-induced from natural variability, the following is required:

Major Advances Thus Far: Sea Ice: 

Major Advances Thus Far: Sea Ice Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover Growing Antarctic Sea Ice Cover Arctic ice loss Exceeds natural variability corresponds with submarine measurements of thinning ice Corresponds to observed warm temperatures in Arctic Antarctic ice gain Differences not well understood Potential test parameter for models 1978: NASA 1987: DoD 2002: NASA

Importance of Sustained Global Observations: 

Importance of Sustained Global Observations Yearly Averaged Anomalies of Ocean Surface Topography 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Improvement in orbit accuracy Chelton et al. (2001) el niño Topex el niño

Understanding Seasonal Climate Variability: 

Understanding Seasonal Climate Variability Ocean State Snow/Water Equivalent As we make advances in seasonal prediction, we hope to transition to operational state through the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Jan, 1998 Dec, 1997 Sea Surface Height

22 Years of Earth Radiation Climate Record: 

22 Years of Earth Radiation Climate Record

Changes in the Earth’s Ice Cover: 

Changes in the Earth’s Ice Cover Greenland Ice Sheet Thickness Change Ice masses are changing in response to a changing climate in spatially variable ways Greenland showed shrinking in the late 1990’s Parts of Antarctica are gaining mass, parts are losing ICESat will provide comprehensive assessment ice sheet mass balance in context of a changing climate ICESat NASA P3

Major Advances Thus Far: 

Major Advances Thus Far Discovery of a new class of large-scale intra-seasonal oscillations of the ocean at mid and high latitudes Revolutionizing the understanding of ocean interior mixing and energy dissipation based on satellite sea surface topography observations Completion of 20-year climatology of aerosols and cloud data for use in global circulation models through International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and Global Aerosol Climatology Project. Previously, GCMs had no reliable continuous data sets First high-resolution “Arctic Snapshot” of sea motion and deformation: revolutionizing our understanding of sea ice processes and climate interaction. Detection of Arctic-wide warming, and disappearance of perennial sea ice cover Demonstration of boundary current mass transport calculation capability as well as upper ocean heat transport from satellite altimetry Demonstration of the first operational ocean circulation forecast system in the open ocean.

Interagency Linkages: 

Interagency Linkages NOAA, NSF, DOD, DOE, EPA National Oceanographic Partnership program (NOPP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) National Aerosol Climate Interactions Program (NACIP) Co-funded investigations Operational demonstrations

… A Look Backward: 

… A Look Backward 100 years of salinity measurements by ships

A Look Forward...: 

A Look Forward... One Week of Salinity Measurements from Space

Major Contributions to Come: 

Major Contributions to Come Measurement of vertical cloud structure and properties to determine their characteristics and feedbacks (CloudSat, CALIPSO) Tracking water motions through 30-day gravity variations for hydrologic, climatologic, and terrestrial applications (GRACE) 3-hourly global precipitation measurements for model input and process understanding (GPM) Monitoring of ocean circulation to provide needed climate model input (Aquarius, Aqua, QuikSCAT) Continued observations of global ocean surface winds through transition to operational agency (QuikSCAT) Multi-decadal estimates of global temperatures and radiation (Terra, Aqua, SORCE) First-order estimates of sea ice thickness using remote sensing data, enabling an assessment of its variability in time and an understanding of its ocean/atmosphere interactions (ICESat, AMSR) Multi-decadal estimates of polar ice cover for model input and validation (Aqua, ICESat)

Products for Decision-Makers: 

Products for Decision-Makers Data Observations & Measurements Broad suite of climate parameters from Earth-observing sensors Science Models & Data Assimilation Synthesis and Integration of multiple complex data sets into predictive models.

Products for Decision-Makers: 

Products for Decision-Makers Sustained observations to support decision- making in solar energy projects and forecasting. Data Decision Support Assessment of solar incidence & energy export opportunities Optimal siting of solar array farms for energy production Forecast energy production reductions due to atmospheric dust and clouds Investment plans between solar & traditional energy supply systems Observations & Measurements Solar radiation: CERES, ERB Aerosols: TOMS, SAGE II, Ground networks, Terra, Aqua Meteorology: TRMM, NPOESS Clouds: CloudSat, CALIPSO Optimal integration of traditional and solar energy into electric power grid Improved prediction of electric power need and supply Development of Western power grid Mitigate power shortages & price fluctuations Science Models & Data Assimilation Value & distribution of surface solar insolation; Forecasts of clouds, moisture, winds; Ash, dust, aerosol plume forecasts Value & benefits to citizens and society

Fulfilling CCRI Program Goals: 

Fulfilling CCRI Program Goals Enhance the science base: Feedbacks in climate sensitivity: e.g. cloud studies, ice feedbacks, etc. Natural climate variability: global winds, temperatures, etc. Modeling on global and regional scales: providing necessary input and initialization data Enhance observing & monitoring systems: Systems for global distribution of environmental parameters: global high-frequency coverage of multiple parameters Long-term monitoring systems: Transition of innovative observations to operational agency “climate quality” stability: Transition of observations to operational agency Improve decision support tools: Timely provision of climate data sets: comprehensive data sets Enhance exploratory research: Novel approaches including global observing techniques: leading the way in innovative global observations of important parameters.