lpb CLIVAR SSG15 2

Slide1: 

La Plata Basin (LPB) Regional Hydroclimate Project E. Hugo Berbery, co-chair for CLIVAR M. Assuncao Silva Dias, co-chair for GEWEX http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/lpb

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1997/98 Flood of the Paraná River Mesoscale Convective Systems Trends in annual precipitation (1900-2000) black : 1950-1969 red 1980-1999 Motivation

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Chaotic Atm Dyn SSTs LS-A Koster et al. (2000) Ep/P Source: Marengo Collini et al. (2007)

Slide4: 

Land Cover and Land Use Changes in the La Plata Basin Depending on their physiological properties, crops have different evapotranspiration properties, they reflect and/or absorb radiation differently (changes in albedo), thus affecting the processes that produce precipitation. Likewise, their roots absorb water differently, thus impacting the soil moisture, deep runoff and river flows. Red: decrease (forest to agric.) Blue: increase (grassland to trees) NDVI 1981-2000 trends surrogate for primary production from NOAA-AVHRR images Mean 1969/70 -1973/74 Mean 1998/99 -2002/03

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Scientific Motivations for the LPB Regional Hydroclimate Project Strong interannual and interdecadal climate and streamflow variations and trends Confounding effects of land use change: deforestation, intensive agriculture trends and urbanization Unknown effect of aerosols advection from biomas burning from tropical areas Strong role of MCS in total precipitation Potential for better predictability Vulnerability to climate change

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Main science questions: What climatological and hydrological factors determine the frequency and spatial extent of floods and droughts?  How predictable is the regional weather and climate variability and how predictable are their impacts on the hydrological, agricultural and social systems of the basin? What are the impacts of global climate change and land use change on regional weather, climate, hydrology and agriculture? To what extent can their impacts be predicted?

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Implementation of LPB RHP

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Planning meetings for the field campaign and monitoring activities Sep 2006: First Science and Implementation Steering Group (SISG) meeting (Guaratingueta, BR) Mar 2007: Second SISG meeting joint with IAI (Buenos Aires, AR) Nov 2007: Third SISG meeting (at Itaipu, BR/PY) TBC Selected action items from the meetings 1. Survey for the field experiment 2. Establishing the sites representative of LPB 3. Radar integration 4. Flux Towers 5. Soil moisture measurements 6. Data management

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Plans for the field campaign and monitoring activities The circle represents the primary region of study where precipitation is largest. The square represents a transition region where L-Ai are important. Significant LCLU changes have occurred due to changes in agricultural practices. black : 1950-1969 red 1980-1999

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LPB Funding – (in progress) CLARIS - LPB A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies IAI Ecosystems, Biodiversity, Land Use and Cover, and Water Resources CIC-GEF Framework Program for the sustainable management of the La Plata Basin water resources, in relation to climate variability and change NCAR (NSF) Collaborations during Field Experiment Coordination among many regional projects Projects with support from national agencies NASA Remote Sensing/LDAS Capacity Building

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CLARIS-LPB A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin (Coordinator: Jean-Philippe Boulanger) CLARIS-LPB Overarching Themes ► To provide an ensemble of regional hydroclimate scenarios and their uncertainties for climate impact studies. ► To project possible scenarios in land-use evolution for 2010-2040 and design adaptation strategies in terms of rural development for the most vulnerable areas. ► To design strategies to adapt to the possible hydrological scenarios and their consequences (hydropower, floods, river transportation and ecological systems in wetlands) over 2010-2040.

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CLARIS-LPB Work Packages WP1: CLARIS LPB Project Management WP2: Dissemination activities WP3: Improving our description of recent past climate variability in La Plata Basin (instrumental and proxy data) WP4: Hydroclimate past and future low-frequency variability, trends and shifts WP5: Regional Climate Change assessments for La Plata basin WP6: Processes and future evolution of extreme climate events in La Plata Basin WP7: An interface for improving prediction capability of climate change societal impacts WP8: Land use change, agriculture and socio-economic implications WP9: Water resources in La Plata Basin in the context of climate change

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Useful URLs http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/lpb http://www.cicplata.org http://www.cptec.inpe.br/lpb http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~berbery/lpb

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NASA Water Management Program Capacity Building Activities for Latin America “Initiate capacity building programs to develop tools for using remote sensing data in support of water management, and to show the value of Earth observations generally in water resource management. The program will be initiated in Latin America” The NASA Water Management Program may assist with LPB activities. This may include: Assist with workshop support including the training of students; Assist with access and application of NASA satellite and modeling products; and Travel support to meetings including visits to the US.

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Plans to: Develop 25 year (1980-2005) datasets from a Land Data Assimilation System at adequate resolutions with all possible in situ and remotely sensed observations including land use and land cover changes, useful for agricultural and hydrological assessments and applications. 2. Assess the impact of LCLU changes on the hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin, and the physical mechanisms by which the impacts take effect, by means of regional model simulations employing the lower boundary conditions determined in Objective 1. 3. Investigate the role of LCLU changes in the intensity and length of extreme events (floods and droughts). 4. Investigate the potential changes in the hydrological character (soil moisture, infiltration, and runoff) of the La Plata Basin due to the changes in LCLU.