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Sustainable Energy: A National and International Security Imperative: 

We’re Out of Time! Sustainable Energy: A National and International Security Imperative L. David Montague

Sustainable Energy: A National and International Security Imperative : 

Sustainable Energy: A National and International Security Imperative A paper to frame the Issues and stimulate discussion of plausible solutions free of energy industry influence. Draws and integrates data from June 2005 NAE sponsored conference on Sustainable Energy, and other DOE EIA sources Proposes a holistic near term solution against a backdrop of national security and global warming concerns. L. David Montague Presented at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University February 2006

Outline of Discussion: 

Outline of Discussion Current and projected US and World energy consumption and supply by sector Carbon emissions and warming The nature of the options Cleaner fossil fuels Hydrogen, Fuel Cells Solar, Wind, Bio-fuels, Nuclear A proposed quantifiable solution set for near and long term mitigation of the threat

Slide4: 

Source: UN and DOE EIA Energy use grows with economic development US Australia Russia Brazil China India S. Korea Mexico Ireland Greece France UK Japan Malaysia energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2002) Steven Koonin

Slide5: 

energy demand – growth projections Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004 Notes: 1. OECD refers to North America, W. Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ 2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and Eastern European nations 3. Developing Countries is all other nations including China, India etc. Global Energy Demand Growth by Region (1971-2030) Energy Demand (Mtoe) Global energy demand is set to grow by over 60% over the next 30 years – 74% of the growth is anticipated to be from non-OECD countries

Slide6: 

N. America, Europe and Asia Pacific are the three largest demand centres But, have a small share of the remaining oil and gas reserves; coal is the exception Their collective shares are: Oil - 80% of demand; 15% of conventional reserves (28% incl. unconventional reserves) Gas – 61% of demand; 32% of reserves Coal – 89% of demand; 69% of reserves growing dislocation of supply & demand Steven Koonin

Slide7: 

Efficiency; Structural Change 1970-2003 Gas 0.7Q RETs 2.1 Nucl 7.7 Oil 9.6 Coal 10.4

Slide8: 

2003 US Energy Consumption by Sector & Source 5 Quads or 5 Trillion ft3

Slide9: 

Saudi Arabia 26% Iraq 11% Kuwait 10% Iran 9% UAE 8% Venezuela 6% Russia 5% Mexico 3% Libya 3% China 3% Nigeria 2% U.S. 2% U.S. 26% Japan 7% China 6% Germany 4% Russia 3% S. Korea 3% France 3% Italy 3% Mexico 3% Brazil 3% Canada 3% India 3% Nations that HAVE oil Nations that NEED oil (% of Global Reserves) (% of Global Consumption) Source: EIA International Energy Annual The Oil Problem

Slide10: 

Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) 60% 71%

Slide11: 

Scale of Challenge

Slide13: 

Oil & Gasoline Market Behavior The oil market is not a free market Demand is inelastic and growing while supply is elastic as long as reserves exist The supply pipeline is easily manipulated There is no incentive for oil companies to put downward pressure on oil prices, because profits rise directly with crude price 1 bbl of crude on average yields 47% or 20 gal of gasoline; Assuming the other 53% has no value (gross underestimate), at $70/bbl the cost of crude per gal of gasoline would be: (20gal gas/42gal crude) x $70/20 =$1.67 while the average price at the pump is $3.00. Other costs are largely fixed. Then there is what I call the “Mysteresis” effect. Pump prices rise instantly with crude increases but lag significantly as crude prices go down. The pipeline is weeks long and refiners rarely contract at the delivery day spot price.

Slide14: 

Total=22 Total=29

Approximate Trade Deficit Contribution of Crude Oil And Natural Gas Imports : 

Approximate Trade Deficit Contribution of Crude Oil And Natural Gas Imports Crude Oil and Natural Gas Imports Now Make Up 32% of The Trade Deficit Sources: Dept of Commerce BEA and Dept of Energy EIA

Slide17: 

Steven Koonin CO2 emissions and GDP per capita (1980-2002) US Australia Russia Brazil China India S. Korea Mexico Ireland Greece France UK Japan Malaysia

Slide18: 

CO2 Emissions and Climate Sam Baldwin

Slide19: 

Climate change and CO2 emissions CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use The global temperature is increasing other indicators of climate change There is a plausible causal connection but the scientific case is not overwhelming (natural variability, forcings) Impacts of higher CO2 quite uncertain ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm) Reached by 2050 under BAU Precautionary action is warranted What could the world do? Will we do it? Steven Koonin

Vectors Are in The Wrong Direction: 

Vectors Are in The Wrong Direction Growing reliance on unreliable foreign supply of energy presents an unacceptable threat to our national security and economic stability China’s projected 8%* annual growth along with other developing countries will worsen the pressures on oil and gas supply and prices. We are increasingly vulnerable to economic disruption due to gas and oil supply interruption The off-shore profits help fund terrorist and fundamentalist regimes that could cause that interruption The much vaunted energy bill does little to alleviate the problem - time line is incompatible with the need There must and can be effective competitive energy sources to oil and gas suppliers * Rand Corp. Projection

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Ever-increasing reliance on foreign energy supply is a real and growing threat to national security The US can be energy independent within 10-15 years and radically reduce greenhouse emissions in the process The solution seems straight forward: Hybrid vehicles that use bio-fuels (ethanol and bio-diesel) for the transportation sector Reliance on new nuclear plants for electric power generation with fuel reprocessing to reduce high level waste by 90% We need to get on with it much more aggressively A major PR campaign will be required The so called hydrogen economy is not a solution

Slide22: 

H2 SUPPLY PATHWAYS Like electricity, hydrogen is an energy carrier that can be produced from widely available primary energy resources Wind Solar Biomass Coal w/CO2 Sequestration Natural Gas Nuclear

Slide23: 

Hydrogen Production Dilemma 13 million barrels crude oil per day used in transportation – equivalent to 1.46 billion pounds per day hydrogen This would require doubling the total US power production (850 GWe to 1780 GWe) if hydrogen were produced by conventional electrolysis. (assume 1 MW per 1000 lbs) OR This would require 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year - approximately 110% of the 2002 total US consumption, nearly doubling the total natural gas requirement. Joan Ogden UC Davis We are already a net importer of natural gas!!

Slide24: 

Fuel Cell System Trends Compared with other Distributed Generation Technologies Copyright  2005 Electric Power Research Institute,Inc All rights reserved

Slide25: 

Sam Baldwin Chief Technology Officer Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 026587136 University Linz Siemens ECN, The Netherlands Princeton UC Berkeley

Bio-fuels & Hybrids in Transportation can eliminate our need for imported oil : 

Bio-fuels & Hybrids in Transportation can eliminate our need for imported oil We grow things better than any nation on earth Biomass (corn, sugar cane and beets, sorgum, fruit, and many other waste products) are ideal feed stock. Arguments over whether the life cycle net energy balance ratio for ethanol is less than or greater than one, are moot if biomass is converted using the sun’s energy, or waste heat from power plants. CO2 is reduced by at least 30% using ethanol and more is adsorbed in growing the biomass.

Slide27: 

1.2 acres of corn yield enough ethanol (385 gal.) to run a full sized hybrid vehicle for 12K mi (the average driven during a year) at 50 mph. 385 m2 of solar collector operating @75% eff. In the SW for 4.4 hrs provides the energy needed to convert corn feedstock to 385 gal of ethanol to run that vehicle for a year.

How Much Ethanol Does it Take to Run Half of all US Cars? : 

How Much Ethanol Does it Take to Run Half of all US Cars? Less than 30 hp needed to maintain a car or light truck at 68 mph against aerodynamic drag and rolling friction; less than 9 hp to maintain it at 40 mph. A 35 hp Ethanol fueled IC engine augmented by battery usage for acceleration with regenerative braking is adequate for hybrid full size family vehicles to run 100 million hybrid cars for 12K miles at 50 mph on ethanol would take 385 gal. X100 X106 or 38.5 billion gallons of ethanol/yr. US today produces about 5 billion gal/yr of ethanol

How Much Biomass and Land to Grow and Transform to Ethanol? : 

How Much Biomass and Land to Grow and Transform to Ethanol? To grow if it all came from corn: Corn Crop yield =122 bushels per acre, and 2.6 gal of ethanol/bushel or 317 gal of Ethanol per acre 38.5 x 109 gal./317 gal./acre = 121million added acres planted in corn compared to about 85 million acres currently in corn for all purposes To transform using solar energy 100,000 acres or 156 sq mi. of solar collector operating 250 days per year @ 6 hrs per day at 75% efficiency transforms enough corn to ethanol for 100 million cars for 12 k miles at 50 mph Includes all conversion steps: milling, cooking, saccharification, fermenting, distilling, and dehydrating Can also transform using waste heat from electric generating power plants

Slide30: 

What Does Ethanol Cost?

Ethanol Mythology and Reality: 

Ethanol Mythology and Reality Ethanol takes more energy to make it than it delivers Depends how you allocate energy cost to bi-products The argument is moot since all the energy for production can be power plant waste heat or otherwise wasted incident solar radiation Ethanol has lower energy content than gasoline so it is a poor fuel choice - 125,300 vs 79,000 btu/gal Ethanol burns slower and more efficiently in an IC engine regaining almost half of the difference in energy content. Ethanol costs much more per mile than gasoline A gallon of Ethanol costs about 75% of gasoline in California - about the difference in mileage per gallon Engines require redesign/modification to burn ethanol Many engines in currently produced US cars are flexible fuel engines that can burn any blend from pure gasoline to at least 90% ethanol Other fuel injection engines can be adapted at low cost. Ethanol production and distribution cannot be increased rapidly Existing gasoline distribution can be readily used for ethanol and production facilities can and will grow to meet demand

2nd Generation Hybrid Vehicle Proposed For Long Term: 

2nd Generation Hybrid Vehicle Proposed For Long Term Uses 35 hp flex fuel engine to overcome drag and rolling friction and battery charging relying on battery power for acceleration at highway speeds as well as low speed operation. Requires more batteries with high energy density, high surge current capability, and long cycle life. Lithium Ion nanoelectrode battery technology appears most promising solution with potential for: Many thousands of cycles with electrodes not susceptible to fatigue failure High current capable, fast recharging Good ruggedness and safety But not mature in required sizes for several years

Biofueled Hybrids, Natural Gas and Nuclear Power Inexorably Linked: 

Biofueled Hybrids, Natural Gas and Nuclear Power Inexorably Linked To be energy independent, natural gas fired power plants must eventually be replaced by nuclear or coal fired plants Future fuel efficient hybrids depend on high energy density batteries - Lithium Ion technology. The production and replentishment of such batteries for 100 million vehicles will increase electrical power generation demand Is there enough Lithium? Is it safe enough?

Slide35: 

The 21st Century Reemergence of Nuclear Power Improved nuclear power performance Global climate change and carbon emission constraints Increase in natural gas demand and costs Non-proliferation and arms reduction agreements require the consumption of fissile warhead materials Advanced systems for economic, versatile, sustainable, minimal waste and proliferation resistant nuclear power plants Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

Slide36: 

Current Status: A Dramatic Increase in Output Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

3 Obstacles to Increased Use of Nuclear Power: 

3 Obstacles to Increased Use of Nuclear Power Fear about nuclear energy safety The cost of siting, approval process, & building The disposal of high level waste There are effective solutions to remove these obstacles

A Safety Reliability and Cost Perspective: 

A Safety Reliability and Cost Perspective US Naval Reactor Program has produced and operated well over 100 >50MW output reactors with an impeccable safety record. Operated by 4-5 personnel per shift The Keys: Standard reactor designs and procedures Excellent reactor school and training program Streamlined regulatory processes French commercial reactors used standard designs By comparison most of US commercial reactors are one of a kind with widely different procedures Lots of bugs worked out before potential was realized Even so, the safety record including TMI is good.

Slide39: 

Nuclear Safety Perspective: TMI and Chernobyl Status Today Worldwide: 441 Reactors, 2574 terawatt hours 31 Reactors under construction (several more ordered) 17% of world’s electricity North America: 118 Reactors, 118 Gigawatts (103 in U.S. = 20% of electricity 15 in Canada = 12% of electricity) Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

Reducing The Cost of Siting, Construction and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants: 

Reducing The Cost of Siting, Construction and Operation of Nuclear Power Plants Standardization of plant design Streamlining regulatory requirements and approval process for siting of nuclear power plants Using the Naval Reactor model for standardization, design, construction, training and operating procedures Rethinking the waste problem

Slide41: 

Nuclear Wastes All nuclear fuel cycle waste (except HLW) has been safely and reliably disposed of through DOE and NRC regulations (milling, enrichment, fabrication) Since 1982, US law ‘defines’ spent nuclear fuel as HLW, since reprocessing has not occurred since 1976 Spent fuel is currently stored at >100 nuclear power plant sites with eventual storage/burial at Yucca Mt. All nuclear electricity is taxed at 1 mill/kwhr for a HLW fund (>$20 billion) HLW radiation exposure at disposal site less than natural background radiation levels in that region Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

Slide42: 

Nuclear Proliferation: Myths and Realities The US adopted a “once through” fuel cycle to minimize proliferation In fact, the “unintended consequence” has been the development of fuel reprocessing elsewhere to meet nuclear fuel needs The separation of uranium, actinides and fission products would reduce the requirements for long term geologic storage Advanced fuel cycles take all of this into account Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC

Slide43: 

Spent Fuel From Commercial Plants Direct Disposal Conventional Reprocessing PUREX Spent Fuel Pu Uranium MOX LWRs/ALWRs U and Pu Actinides Fission Products Repository Interim Storage Less U and Pu (More Actinides Fission Products) Advanced, Proliferation-Resistant Recycling + ADS Transmuter? Trace U and Pu Trace Actinides Less Fission Products Repository Gen IV Fast Reactors Once Through Fuel Cycle Current European/Japanese Fuel Cycle Advanced Proliferation Resistant Fuel Cycle Gen IV Fuel Fabrication LWR/ALWR/HTGR AFCI Approach to Spent Fuel Management Advanced Separations Technologies

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Ever-increasing reliance on foreign energy supply is a real and growing threat to national security The US can be energy independent within 10-15 years and radically reduce greenhouse emissions in the process The solution seems straight forward: Hybrid vehicles that use bio-fuels (ethanol and bio-diesel) for the transportation sector Reliance on new nuclear plants for electric power generation with fuel reprocessing to reduce high level waste by 90% We need to get on with it much more aggressively A major PR campaign will be required The so called hydrogen economy is not a solution

Policy Recommendations: 

Policy Recommendations Sustainable Energy Independence is a National Imperative US policy should mandate the following vehicle and fuel requirements: All cars and light trucks sold after 2007 in the US to be flexible fuel capable. No exceptions, no excuses, no postponements Pollution standards and mileage requirements that preclude non-commercial vehicles sold after 2010 other than hybrids that use flexible fuel plus batteries (or fuel cells) with all service stations required to pump at least 85% ethanol fuel in addition to petrol. Eliminate corn subsidies and instead provide incentives for production of ethanol and other biofuels with a strategic reserve Mandate a study -- overseen by the National Academies to provide, within one year, a national standard for new generation nuclear fired power plants and fuel reprocessing with training and operation based on the Naval reactor program. A streamlined siting, construction approval, and regulatory process. Immediate implementation of fuel reprocessing to reduce high level waste by 90% starting immediately and by 98-99% by 2015 Retention of closed military bases adjacent to water for plant siting

Slide46: 

Back Up Data (See Note Pages)

Slide47: 

Hybrid Auto Horsepower Calculations (See Note Pages)

Slide48: 

Ethanol Fuel Usage per Auto (See Note Pages)

Slide49: 

Fuel Energy Content and Conversion Energy (See Note Pages)

Slide50: 

How Ethanol is made – Western Plains Energy LLC http://westernplainsenergy.biz/ethanol.html Science Daily Article on Patzek/Pimentel New Study http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329132436.htm "The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update", by Hosein Shapouri and James A. Duffield, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of Energy Policy and New Uses, and Michael Wang of the Center for Transportation Research, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory. Agricultural Economic Report No. 813: "Corn ethanol is energy efficient... www.usda.gov/oce/oepnu/aer-814.pdf Various DOE EIA Reports including the 2005 World Energy Outlook Presentations at the 2 June 2005 NAE Regional Conference at Case Western Reserve on “Energy: A 21st Century Perspective” Key References

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