CANSEE Conference OCT 2005 updated version

Slide1: 

Modeling Long Term Economic and Environmental Impacts of Potato Production in Canada Mohammad Khakbazan1, Cliff Hamilton2, Ken Belcher3 and Karl Volkmar4 1Research Economist, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Brandon MB 2Research Assistant, University of Saskatchewan Centre for Studies in Agriculture, Law and the Environment 3Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Saskatchewan 4Research Scientist, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Brandon MB CANSEE Conference York University, Toronto October 27-29, 2005

Introduction: 

Introduction Rapid expansion of potato production in Manitoba and Alberta Statistics Canada

Objectives of the project: 

Objectives of the project To develop a dynamic model that integrates environmental and economic components of potato production To use this model to estimate the long-term viability of some of the agricultural practices To use this model to investigate where potential yield and environmental improvement exist

Cropping Systems/Rotations Studied: 

Cropping Systems/Rotations Studied Rotations of 2 to 4 years in length Rotations of potato with a combination of cereal, oilseed and legume crop Potato-Wheat Potato-Oat-Wheat Potato-Canola Potato-Wheat-Canola-Wheat Potato-Corn-Wheat Potato-Canola-Wheat Potato-Canola(alfafla)-Alfalfa-Alfalfa Rotation determined tillage practices implemented

Integrated Crop Growth/Economic Model: 

Integrated Crop Growth/Economic Model Crop growth model Modules interact to develop a simple crop growth concept with a resultant yield Developed based upon literature review Economic Model Uses standard benefit/cost techniques combined with parameters calculated in the crop growth model Costs split into yield dependent and non-yield dependent costs

Integrated Environmental/Economic Model: 

Integrated Environmental/Economic Model

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling Yield Maximum yield based upon optimal growth under optimal conditions Calculated yield based on the maximum yield and changes to the optimal conditions Conditions included in the model are: Moisture Nitrogen Disease Phosphorus Weeds Temperature

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling Theoretical response curves Nutrient and moisture responses for crops of the study found from in-depth literature review

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling Moisture Components include: Precipitation (growing season and snow water equivalent) Irrigation Infiltration (based on soil type and surface cover) Ability of the soil to store moisture (soil type and composition)

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling Nitrogen Components include: Growing season mineralization (based on solum depth, soil moisture, temperature) Total soil organic nitrogen (based on soil organic matter) Applied nitrogen fertilizer (based on an economically practical determination from available moisture)

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling Phosphorus Components include: Soil phosphorus (based on soil texture, soil organic matter and the quantity of phosphorus removed by the previous crop) Applied fertilizer phosphorus Available fertilizer phosphorus (10 to 30%) Moisture based phosphorus uptake

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling Soil Erosion Soil loss based on the rotation system in question Generalized soil formation value Soil Organic Matter Carbon Changes in SOMC due to: Surface residue Residue decomposition Mineralization losses Losses through erosion

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling

Crop Growth Modeling: 

Crop Growth Modeling Yield losses due to weeds and disease Complicated formula for weeds which would entail modeling weed growth Limited information on disease losses Random selection of losses based on treated extremes found in literature Doesn’t account for the benefits of crop rotation in reducing these losses

Economic Modeling : 

Economic Modeling Uses standard budgeting techniques Some costs were determined to be yield dependent or irrigation dependent Components drawn upon from the crop growth model: Irrigation Nitrogen application Phosphorus application Yield Farming operations

Economic Modeling : 

Economic Modeling

Economic Modeling : 

Economic Modeling

Environmental Changes: 

Environmental Changes Environmental changes are estimated in the environmental component of the model Environmental changes are monitored under the following categories: Solum depth Soil organic matter carbon Soil organic matter carbon lost to erosion CO2-C lost to the atmosphere through mineralization and decomposition processes

Environmental ChangesChange in solum depth: 

Environmental Changes Change in solum depth

Environmental ChangesChange in SOMC: 

Environmental Changes Change in SOMC

Environmental ChangesErosion losses of SOMC: 

Environmental Changes Erosion losses of SOMC

Environmental ChangesCO2-C release: 

Environmental Changes CO2-C release

Simulated Results: 

Simulated Results Average net revenue from experimental crop rotations (1999 to 2001) compared with simulated data

Simulated Results: 

Simulated Results Potato Wheat Rotation Simulated model results Experimental results

Next Steps: 

Next Steps Yield response based on other factors such as pH and other nutrients Expanding on the moisture aspect Moisture stress in the middle of the growing season Rotational effects on weed and disease losses Inclusion of additional crops Improved user interface Further evaluation of the model once more experimental data is made available

Acknowledgements: 

Acknowledgements Financial support from Manitoba Rural Adaptation Council (MRAC) In-kind contributions from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), Centre for Studies in Agriculture, Law and Environment (CSALE) at the University of Saskatchewan, Manitoba Crop Diversification Centre (MCDC), and Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation (MCIC).