WG2 Prague 111006 Kohlova travel behav mode choice

Travel Behavior and mode choicein the Czech Republic : Travel Behavior and mode choice in the Czech Republic Markéta Braun Kohlová Charles University of Prague, Environment Centre Czech Republic


Structure of the presentation : Structure of the presentation I) CUEC research activities in transport II) Modal choice modelling III) Potential demand for cycling infrastructure IV) Future research


PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport : PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport Estimation of Cost Functions of public transport providers (for welfare analysis of regulation in cities) Quantification of external costs Regulation analysis Analyses of the household demand systems Travel behavior – modal choice


PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport : PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport Ad1. Estimation of Cost Functions of public transport providers (for welfare analysis of regulation in cities) the cost function parameters parameters of scale effects Ad2. Quantification of external costs ExternE methodology Ad3. Regulation analysis air-pollution regulation in Czech cities CBA (cycling infrastructure, Pilsen) Brůhová-Foltýnová, Braun Kohlová, 2006


PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport : PART I - CUEC Research Activities in Transport Ad4. Analyses of the household demand systems The Household Budget Surveys (CSÚ) N=3,000; quota sampling; quazi panel 13 household groups social status> farmers, retired, single or pair with / without children  determining transport use municipality size> (up to 2.000, 2.000-20.000, above 20.000)  determining transport mode availability Estimates: Own-price, cross-price and income elasticities (for fuels consumption, public transport use) Distributional effect assessment for motor fuel taxation Brůha, Ščasný, AERE, 2006


Selected Results – expenditures (%) : Selected Results – expenditures (%) Elasticities for income deciles and 9 social groups - for motor fuels only 1) own price el.: 2) Income el.: - average for deciles: - 0.41 - declines with income - for social group: - 0.65 - average for decile: + 1.07 - the highest for pensioners:- 0.82 - for social group: + 0.6 Ščasný-Brůha (2003) Brůha-Ščasný (2004) Uncompensated price elasticities: Fuel price Public transport fares Fuel use – urban - 1.04 0.28 Fuel use – rural - 0.4 0.03 Public Transport Use 0.3 - 0.65


PART II - Modal choice : PART II - Modal choice


Modal split in Pilsen and other European Cities : Modal split in Pilsen and other European Cities Source: Informace o dopravě v Plzni 1997 - 2003, ECI 2003


Slide9 : Case study: survey City of Pilsen Intra-urban travel only Population: 155 000 Adults (18+) Quota sample: 763 Working days only Year: 2005


Travel behavior– personal (individual) : Travel behavior – personal (individual) Dependent variables: binary choice models 1) Car ownership 2) Modal Choice = a mean chosen on experimental working (included in the chain of the trips) - Car use (driver, passenger) - Bicycle use


Car ownership - logit model : Car ownership - logit model


Attitudes Measurement : Attitudes Measurement General statements (26) Agreement on the 5 point Likert-scale Factor Analysis (4 extracted): I) BIKE – neither convenient nor appropriate II) PUBLIC TRANSPORT – convenient for all the purposes III) CAR – status symbol and necessity IV) SPEED TOLERANCE


ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN INDEX : ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN INDEX Statements (6): reported behaviour seriousness of environmental threat RESULTS: -  - public transport + walk -  - car - Ø - bike


Car choice - logit model : Car choice - logit model


PART III – Estimate of a potential demand for cycling infrastructure : PART III – Estimate of a potential demand for cycling infrastructure For the CBA of cycling infrastructure in Pilsen Stated preferences design = willingness to replace the current means of transport with bicycle


Identification of more frequent cyclists … if cycling infrastructure improved : Identification of more frequent cyclists … if cycling infrastructure improved


Demand for cycling -estimate of its potential change : Demand for cycling - estimate of its potential change Current transportation behavior Diaries: All trips (on previous working day) Purpose, distance, duration, means of transport Demand = aggregate of population preferences stated as a potential choice of means of transport Quantified: persons, kms, minutes For current prices For each trip purpose separately


Change in demand – estimate : Change in demand – estimate


PART IV – Future reasearch : PART IV – Future reasearch Modal choice – data from middle sized and small cities and Prague residential characteristics suburban commuting explain differences in modal split between cities Impact of new constructed infrastructure on modal choice (in-depth interview) Validation of SP method Regulation analysis Economic model of travel behavior (mode specific costs) Analysis of household demand system


Slide21 : The research project has been supported by the grant of the Ministry of Transport No. 1F43E/045/210 „CYCLE 21 – Analysis of Demand for Building of cycling infrastructure“ and the grant of the Ministry of Transport No. 24/2006-430-OPI/3 supported from the Operational Program „Infrastructure“ - Priority 2 (2.4) The support is gratefully acknowledged.


Slide22 : Markéta B R A U N K O H L O V Á marketa.braun.kohlova@czp.cuni.cz +420 251 080 403 http://cozp.cuni.cz Charles university in Prague Environment Center