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High-definition DVD Format Wars March 14, 2007 Saud Al Shamsi Vikas Bhargava Karen Hsu Josh Palmer Mark Schelbert Edmund Wong Strategic Computing

Introduction Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: 

Introduction Blu-ray vs. HD DVD In recent years, high-definition (HD) television and HD optical discs entered the market Two HD formats have appeared in the DVD market, both claiming to be the rightful successor to the DVD throne: Blu-ray (developed by Sony/Phillips) HD DVD (developed by Toshiba) Measured by most performance metrics these two technologies are the same, except that Blu-ray has significantly larger capacity (66%). However, Blu-ray appears to have greater network support

Blu-ray vs. HD DVD Future: 

Blu-ray vs. HD DVD Future While the format war rages on, entirely different outcomes are possible: LG has introduced a dual-format player and drive Internet may replace the DVD as a movie delivery vehicle International view: Japan (96% Blu-ray), Europe (pushing for open licensing of both formats), China (proprietary HD format), India (small $ market), South America (unknown); Xbox 360 but still no PS3)

History of Format Wars: 

History of Format Wars Before HD, IBM arbitrated a standard DVD format intended to avoid a format war, but the outcome favored Toshiba regarding royalties, leaving Sony unhappy In response, Sony began developing the next generation of high-definition optical media Toshiba followed suit with its own HD technology While there were many “peace talks”, neither party reached agreement Comparison: VHS vs. Betamax War Despite Beta’s superior quality, VHS won the war because of its strong “content” network

Outcomes of Similar Format Wars: 

Outcomes of Similar Format Wars Certain format wars were never won, but instead compromised with the introduction of multi-format technology DVD-R vs. DVD+R Multi-format DVD drives accommodate both CDMA vs. GSM Can make/receive calls regardless of technology Both prevalent around the world Flash Memory Formats Over 50 different kinds of flash memory All-in-one readers handle most types

Tech Comparison: 

Tech Comparison * Sources: ProActionMedia, WesleyTech; single layer. Most performance metrics of these two technologies are the same Blu-ray storage capacity is more practical for HD movies One high-definition movie (~20GB) fits on just one Blu-ray layer (25GB); while HD DVD requires two layers (2x 15GB)

Network Comparison: 

Network Comparison While both formats have support from various large companies, Blu-ray has greater support from content providers that are critical to achieving a network effect Consumers will follow the format of the CONTENT providers

Security, Durability & Other: 

Security, Durability & Other Digital Rights Management Blu-ray promises BD+, which allows encryption keys to be modified when they are hacked AACS is the copy protection scheme used by both HD DVD & Blu-ray. Took years to develop, but broken in weeks Blu-ray more prone to error due to high aperture Without protective hard-coating, Blu-ray is easier to scratch (data layer is closer to surface) Disc Aperture Settings DVD 0.6 HD DVD 0.65 Blu-ray 0.85

Current Market Share: 

Current Market Share Sales trends illustrate Blu-ray gaining dominant market share

Why Blu-ray is On the Rise?: 

Why Blu-ray is On the Rise? Availability of Hardware (players) Blu-ray (with PS3) : HD DVD = 5 : 1 Blu-ray sales up 700% since the launch of PS3 and other players 687,000 PS3 sold in US Availability of Content 19 of the “Top 20” DVDs in 2006 were released by studios supporting Blu-ray

Business Model: 

Business Model HD Optical Disc Format Competitors Complementors Customers Suppliers Disc Replicators / Factories Machinery Providers Entertainment Industry HDTV Media Players Game Consoles Consumers Retailers / Distributors Licensees Internet VHS TV On Demand (VOD) Flash Memory There are several players in determining a dominant network However “Content is King” and will largely determine the victor

Current Marketing Strategies: 

Current Marketing Strategies ESTIMATED ANNUAL REVENUE 2006 IN U.S. $3.6 Billion $12.5 Billion $35 Billion Key players with influence in the format war between HD DVD and Blu-ray: the film industry, the adult film industry, and the video game industry

Current Marketing Strategies: 

Current Marketing Strategies “The Look and Sound of Perfect” $150M advertising campaign Xbox 360 supports external HD DVD player Pornography industry experimenting with HD DVD “War is Over” advertising campaign PS3 internal Blu-ray player Sony cutting player prices from $1K to less than $500 Future Blu-ray car players HD DVD Blu-ray Blu-ray has adopted a “pre-emptive strike” marketing strategy with its “War is Over” advertising campaign

Future Drivers: 

Future Drivers What are the drivers that will determine the future of this format war?

HD vs. Standard: is it worth the hype?: 

HD vs. Standard: is it worth the hype? Resolutions 1920 x 1080p 1920 x 1080i 1280 x 720p Audio - AC-3: 48 kHz sampling rate, up to 8 channels, up to 18 Mbit/s Resolution (NTSC) 640 x 480i pixels Audio – Stereo, 44kHz Standard High Definition TV remains the Limiting Factor for the time being High-definition provides far superior resolution; however, without HD televisions the improvement in quality will go unnoticed.

HDTV Sales Trends: 

HDTV Sales Trends HD TVs expected to increase from 4M HHs in 2006 to 52M HHs in 2009

Has HD Optical Media Crossed the Chasm?: 

Has HD Optical Media Crossed the Chasm? With the PS3, Blu-ray is quickly approaching the chasm… …but HD-DVD is lagging behind.

Possible Compromises: 

Possible Compromises Dual-disc / Dual-player LG Super Multi Blue Player and Drive Supports playback of both formats Available now for $1,199 Warner Bros. Total HD Single disc compatible with both players Available 3Q 2007 Costs marginally more than current discs Internet / Flash Internet/flash memory may replace DVDs as the dominant media delivery vehicle for movies “DVD format will be irrelevant” – Bill Gates … may be replaced by flash memory or Internet

Thank You: 

Thank You Blu-ray is positioned to win the format war because Stronger sales in the US and Japan Larger studio network providing film content (promise of superior security BD+) PS3 integrated Blu-ray players Larger capacity of 25GB (vs 15GB) Questions & Answers