Harald Schutt

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or How to Invest in the the Future for the Investors’ conference 31. 10. 2007: 

or How to Invest in the the Future for the Investors’ conference 31. 10. 2007 by Harald Schütt Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Institute @ Polytechnic of Namibia with the support of the RE community in Namibia Renewable Energy for Namibia

Slide2: 

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Institute @ The Polytechnic of Namibia Tel +264 61 207 2154 reeei@polytechnic.edu.na R E E E I

This Presentation:: 

This Presentation: What’s the Problem ? Energy Efficiency FIRST Renewable Generation Technology: In the box or out of the box? European Solutions for African Problems ? Perspectives What can you do ? What does all that mean for Namibia? What do WE need ?

Current Energy Situation: 

Current Energy Situation MICRO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS Inflated household energy expenditure Decreased household cash flow Increased defaults on municipal debts Increased influence of property speculators through auctioning of houses causes price rise Increasing number of families whose houses are auctioned Decreasing number of people to foot the bill of increasing cost for electricity and other services Decreasing living standard, health, educational standard of citizens Increased homelessness and informal housing

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Current Energy Situation MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS Increased dependency on electricity imports Increased export of money Reduced quality and reliability of supply Increased frequency of rolling blackouts “Power shedding” Limited supply can have negative impact on foreign investment, health care, vital infrastructure Revenue loss due to reduced productivity Very limited economic growth rates, high unemployment Adverse impact on the realisation of Vision2030

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Short-term Solution: Energy Efficiency SOLAR WATER HEATERS = 100-186 million Nam$ annually The new Cabinet directive has made it clear that GRN and Parastatal buildings will ONLY be equipped with SWH. This will increase the market considerably ! Local production shall be encouraged, says Cabinet. We know how to produce them locally. If you build a new house now and include the investment for SHW in the mortgage, you save money from the first day

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LIGHTS In small households, up to half of the electricity cost is on lights. 55% of el.-customers in Windhoek are in arrears with payments. Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) 7 W to 20 W Efficacy: 80% Life time: about 3 years Break even period: 3 months Incandescent Light Bulb 40 W to 100 W Efficacy: 12% Life time: about 6 months Short-term Solution: Energy Efficiency

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BUILDING DESIGNS Habitat Research and Development Centre, Windhoek (project by MRLGHRD) Claudius Kandavazu Street, close to A. Shipena School Short-term Solution: Energy Efficiency

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Energy Efficiency

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Energy Efficiency

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Energy Efficiency

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Energy Efficiency Hot Water Collectors “made in Namibia” can also be used to power you floor heating !!

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SUMMARY Large-scale introduction of Solar Water Heaters would save Namibian household electricity consumers over N$ 150million per annum, which would be available as disposable income A Solar Water Heater saves almost 100% of electricity for hot water Energy Efficient Lights save 80% of electricity for lighting Energy Efficiency in Buildings save 70% of electricity used in buildings New technical solutions must be implemented such as Solar floor heating washing machines using solar heated water “intelligent” fuse boxes and many others These measures collectively save over 80% of household electricity expenses WITHOUT ANY restrictions or compromises on lifestyle, comfort, safety! This means lots of cash to be circulated ! WHAT A MARKET ! Short-term Solution: Energy Efficiency

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Fossil and nuclear Fuels Renwable Energy Sustainable PV cells for Use in Outer Space GROWIAN Wind Generator TODAY Price per kWh Limited, Expensive, fought for, Destructive, unsustainable Year Large Scale Power Generation

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Typical Demand over a day in Namibia - illustrative purpose only Generation Peak energy price = 10 - 20 times the price of Base Load

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Generation

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Generation

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Money makes the world goin‘ round Contracts concerning energy supply are calculated for a time span of 20 years or more and are subject to international conditions: > The price for gas is pegged to the price for crude oil > Cash on the table in hard currency Who knows how much will be the barrel of oil in 2, 4, 6, 8 - 20 years? > Will it probably cost more than now or less ? > Does anyone in Namibia have control over it ? Who knows the exchange rate in 20 years ? Any option for fossil generation will come with an INCREASING bill for fuel, whatever this fuel might be. INVESTMENT IN FOSSILE ENERGY IS A BLANK CHEQUE ! Renewable Energy Technology gets cheaper with time and the very source of power is available in abundance. So, why invest in fossil energy knowing that it will become increasingly expensive ? If Namibia has the courage to go for new solutions NOW, we will be ahead of others and can later on not only sell the power but also the knowledge about how to generate, administer and distribute it.

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Money makes the world goin‘ round At the moment, approx 35 % of the inhabitants of Namibia use electricity, this is just around 650’000 people. Approx half of them is in arrears with payments More and more houses are being auctioned because more and more people can not afford to pay for municipals services any more. Prices for electricity WILL RISE with REDs or without, but there will be fewer people who can afford it. That means, FEWER PEOPLE will have the means to purchase electricity and they will have to foot the HIGHER BILL for electricity since the price for infrastructure remains the same. The solution is to reform the way we use and generate electricity. - when energy gets more precious, we must stop wasting it ! Every house, every farm can be a power station. We must just create a tariff structure that makes this economical so that private capital will invest in it. Large scale generation of electricity through renewable sources is in the long run more economical and will enable Namibia to have real economical growth

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For Namibia it would look like this

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840 MW Total Renewable Generation 100 MW Wood Gas (1000 - 1500 Farmers) (50 - 200 KW) 40 MW Wind Park, used machines 100 MW Wind Parks new (various places along the coast) 100 MW Solar Photovoltaic (PV) feed-in 50 MW Solar Photovoltaic (decentralised systems) 300 MW Solar Thermal feed-in 150 MW Solar Thermal (decentralised in SWH and Heaters) Ambitious Renewable Scenario: Large Scale RE Power Generation This can realistically be implemented within ten years from now

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Rain Patterns in Africa Should Namibians base their National economical future on commercial farming of crops or livestock? Why not farm energy ?

Wind Generation: 

Wind Generation Windmap of Southern Africa

Wind Generation: 

Wind Generation

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Typical Household Consumption/day : 16kWh Energy Average Energy : 16kWh/24h = 0.666kW El. Geyser & Kettle El. Stove El. Stove & el. Heater Evening Noon Morning Wind Generation

Wind Generation: 

Wind Generation

Wind Generation: 

Wind Generation Walvis Bay wind turbine generates enough electricity for 50 to150 households

Slide29: 

Woodgas from Invader Bush

Woodgas from Invader Bush: 

Wood Gasifier Produced in South Africa A Pilot-Scale Woodgas Producer in Namibia Huge gains from increased rangeland. Thousands of jobs to be created Farmers can become energy-farmers Woodgas from Invader Bush

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Woodgas from Invader Bush

Biodiesel: 

Biodiesel Small-scale Biodiesel Production Equipment Medium-scale Equipment for Commercial Production Biodiesel can be produced from all kinds of vegetable oils. Here someone recycles old oil from big kitchens. In Europe there are large plantations to grow plants for oil extraction. - A new source of income for Namibian farmers ? Biodiesel production is an industrialised process. Biodiesel can be mixed in or replace Diesel for many kinds of engines.

Biodiesel: 

Biodiesel Large-Scale Biodiesel Production Plant in Scotland

Solar Generation: 

Solar Generation

Solar Thermal Generation: 

Solar Thermal Generation Solar Trough Technology (SEGS): 345 MW in action TODAY

Photovoltaic Generation: 

Photovoltaic Generation

Other Technologies: 

Other Technologies Natural Gas for Driving (Kudu in the tank) European Solutions for African Problems ? NAMIBIAN SOLUTIONS for NAMIBIAN PROBLEMS ! What, if we don’t burn the gas but bottle it and drive our cars with it ? Namibia would be independent from the international Oil Cartels, fuel would be obtained on Namibian territory by Namibian workers and sold in Namibian Dollars to Namibian Vehicle-owners. The portion of the gas that is not needed for transport, can either remain for future generations or be sold to finance the investment in RE & EE or be used for other industrial purposes. Namibians would benefit from rising oil prices, not pay for them.

Other Technologies: 

Other Technologies Stirling Motor (can be manufactured in Namibia) Should be explored and adapted to Namibian conditions Dish-Stirling technology, 30 to 50 kW per unit No water needed Must follow the sun precisely Can use ANY source of heat: Sun - charcoal Veg oil - gas Geotherm. - etc.

Green Tower-Demo, Manzanares, Spain, 50kW: : 

Green Tower-Demo, Manzanares, Spain, 50kW: Other Technologies Should be explored and adapted to Namibian conditions

Green Tower in Namibia ? 370 MW for 160 years: 

Green Tower in Namibia ? 370 MW for 160 years Other Technologies

Green Tower:: 

Green Tower: Does not use water for operation Can be designed to run at night time Artist’s impression Up to 7 km diameter, 1500m high Other Technologies

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Other Technologies

Other Technologies: 

Other Technologies Ocean stream generation Should be explored and adapted to Namibian conditions

Other Technologies: 

Other Technologies Wave energy Should be explored and adapted to Namibian conditions

Large Scale RE Power Generation: 

What must happen to make this happen? CLEAR COMMITMENT FROM GRN FOR RE & EE Introduction of “life-cycle-costing” instead of “cheapest offer” and “never mind the running cost”. Reliable, guaranteed feed-in tariff for energy farmers and other producers Start Solar Thermal NOW SWH for All Large Scale Generation of Electricity European Solutions for African Problems ? Large Scale RE Power Generation

Central Energy Supply Today: 

ANGOLA ZAMBIA BOTSWANA REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA Legend 400 kV 330 kV 220 kV 132 kV Atlantic Ocean Gerus Otjikoto Rössing Walmund Omburu O. R. Kokerboom Hardap 2 2 2 2 Ruacana van Eck Auas Aggeneis Aries to Hydra To Koeberg Harib Otjikoto Namib Rundu Otjikoto Etosha Kokerboom Central Energy Supply Today

Caprivi Link Interconnector 200/400MW: 

Caprivi Link Interconnector 200/400MW Hwange (Zimbabwe)

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Current generation by fuel source 74.3% coal 20.1% hydro 4.0% nuclear 1.6% gas/diesel Current generation by country 80.4% South Africa 5.0% Mozambique 4.1% Zimbabwe 3.6% Zambia 2.6% DRC 4.4% rest European Solutions for African Problems ?

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Central Energy Supply Today

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Why not like this:

Slide52: 

Or even like this

Why not:: 

Why not: Become the first Country that lives 100% on renewable, sustainable energy Aim to export the power of electricity and the power of brain activity by becoming the Centre of Competency with regard to RE & EE ? Develop Walvis Bay to be a Centre of Excellence for Wind Power-Generators ? First refurbish old ones later manufacture new ones Re-open the Module Factory in Tsumeb ?

Why not:: 

Why not: Have Solar Street Lights ?

Why not:: 

Why not: Build our houses in a way, that they don’t get hot instead of saving a few Dollars for the construction but pay huge amounts every month for cooling and heating in the winter months Implement future oriented, new technical concepts that attract developers from all over the world ? Put Namibia on the world map of future generation(s). Rather invest in energy farmers who feed in the grid and create many jobs than erecting expensive, big and vulnerable grey elephants or kudus?

How not to manage the Future: 

How not to manage the Future We can not solve the problems we have today, when we apply the same way of thinking that has caused them. (Albert Einstein)

We need:: 

We need: Some real entrepreneurs who want to co-operate with the REEEI @ Polytechnic Banks who want to develop their strategies along the lines of future perspectives instead of ploughing old soils. European Solutions for African Problems ? Namibia is the land of the wide open spaces, we need you as investors to help explore them. You are welcome !

Is this really necessary ? Don’t you agree that we can do better ?: 

Is this really necessary ? Don’t you agree that we can do better ?

Slide59: 

The Future Has Already Started Our Generation Has Created the Problem Let‘s Make a Decision! Our Children Expect a Solution

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THANK YOU Harald Schütt AMUSHA Consultancy Services for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Institute @ Polytechnic of Namibia Tel 061 207 2154 / 232 333 cell 0811 291 223 reeei@polytechnic.edu.na

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