cmp schafer2 0601

Global Change: Technological Alternatives: 

Global Change: Technological Alternatives Andreas Schafer MIT CMP Sponsor-Researcher Meeting, June 11, 2001 University Park Hotel, Cambridge, MA

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EXAMINED TECHNOLOGIES Automobiles, personal trucks, passenger aircraft, and freight trucks together account for more than 95% of total transport energy use, and their traffic share is rising  concentrate on these modes only

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AUTOMOBILES Best studied transportation technology, starting already in the 1970s Own activities: Dietrich/Amstutz/Schafer 1998 paper on “Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Automobiles” Visited 3 U.S. and 5 European car manufacturers in 1999 Revised paper (Dietrich/Heywood/Schafer) to be distributed to CMP sponsors in fall 2001 After receiving comments Publication in peer-reviewed journal and Use technology and cost data for final model runs

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AUTOMOBILES Distinguish between car size classes (U.S. and Western European reference vehicle) Technology simulations for 2010 and 2030 Five different families of vehicles (1) Baseline vehicle with evolutionary changes (2) Such as (1), however, aluminum-intensive body (3) Hybrid drive train vehicle w. high-strength steel body (4) Hybrid drive train vehicle w. aluminum-intensive body (5) Fuel cell vehicle w. aluminum-intensive body

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AUTOMOBILES Four different fuels per vehicle family Gasoline Methanol Compressed natural gas Compressed hydrogen Critical assumptions Technology improvements will be used for economy gains in future and not for increasing vehicle performance Vehicle size and other attributes remain constant Tailpipe emission standard: Tier 2 (reflected through additional costs for all vehicles fuel combinations except for hydrogen)

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AUTOMOBILE VEHICLE PERFORMANCE

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AUTOMOBILE COST CURVE

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WHICH TRUCKS COUNT?

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LIGHT TRUCKS Source: Truck Inventory and Use Survey, various volumes

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WHICH TRUCKS COUNT?

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LIGHT TRUCKS (here: SUVs)

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HEAVY TRUCKS Comparatively few technology/cost studies available 21st Century Truck program Announced in April 2000: Improve fuel efficiency by 2010 Doubling fuel efficiency of Class 8 trucks Tripling fuel efficiency of Class 2b and 6 Other goals related to emissions and safety DOE + additional 5 federal agencies, 18 industry participants Own effort underway to analyze costs for reducing fuel consumption of light and heavy trucks, examining different combinations of Bodies Drivetrains Fuels

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AIRCRAFT Lee et al. (2001) study: Analysis of determinants for aircraft fuel efficiency Cruise specific fuel consumption Lift-to-drag ratio Structural efficiency Other factors Continuation of historical trends leads to a 30-50% reduction in energy intensity (MJ/pkm) of new aircraft through 2025