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Premium member Presentation Transcript Projecting the impact of AIDS on the education system : Projecting the impact of AIDS on the education system Accelerating the education sector response to HIV/AIDS in Africa Sub-regional seminar on HIV/AIDS education, Mombasa, Kenya 12 November, 2002 Kamal Desai, PCD, Imperial College, LondonOverview of this talk: Overview of this talk Introduction Population-level effects of HIV/AIDS Impacts of HIV/AIDS on education systems Need for projection models Situational analysis of HIV/AIDS on the population – example Education sector analysis of HIV/AIDS – example Next steps -- refining estimates and sensitivity analysisIntroduction: Introduction Population level effects of HIV/AIDS: Decline in fertility rates (20% decline TFR) Decline in life expectancy at birth (up to 15 years) Slower population growth Mother-to-child transmission (30-40%) Rise in numbers of orphans Shifting paradigms of new HIV infections . . .Introduction (2): Introduction (2) Decline in life expectancy at birth for 5 eastern/southern African countries (source: UNAIDS 2001)Introduction (3): Introduction (3) The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Education : Supply: in terms of numbers of teachers and the capacity to train them Demand: in terms of numbers and characteristics of the school-age population Introduction (4): Introduction (4) Need for models: Enhance understanding - to understand complex systems by exploring the impact of assumptions which have to be made explicit Estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS on education (teachers and pupils) - predicting the probable present/future impacts of HIV/AIDS (especially in absence of field studies or other data collection) Identify data requirements -- for sensible planning in face of HIV/AIDS Impact of interventions - exploring their potential effectiveness Assist planners to mitigate impact of HIV/AIDS Powerful advocacy toolsIntroduction (5): Introduction (5) Would like to estimate: For country population – absolute numbers of infecteds, HIV prevalence, incident cases by age/sex, AIDS cases, infants born with HIV For education sector – HIV prevalence in teachers, AIDS-related attrition, absenteeism, required recruitment, school-aged children orphaned by AIDS Situational Analysis of HIV/AIDS on populations: Situational Analysis of HIV/AIDS on populations based on SPECTRUM model (USAID, Futures Group) assumes UN Pop Div medium variant demographic assumptions (TFR, country-specific life tables) HIV/AIDS epidemiological assumption (vertical transmission, life expectancy, fertility)Situational Analysis (2) – country A: Situational Analysis (2) – country A Population of 11 million Annual growth rate 2.5% Life expectancy at birth 41 years TFR = 6.0 births per female Adult HIV prevalence (ages 15-49) – 20% in 2001Sentinel surveillance sites in Zambia: Sentinel surveillance sites in Zambia HIV prevalence in Zambia sentinel sites: HIV prevalence in Zambia sentinel sitesPopulation of country A in presence and absence of HIV/AIDS (age groups and for 15-49 year age group): Population of country A in presence and absence of HIV/AIDS (age groups and for 15-49 year age group) By 2015, the actual total population is predicted to be 14.1 million compared to 18.2 million in the absence of HIV/AIDS, a reduction of 22.5% due to the epidemic. The 15-49 year age group will similarly experience 22% reductionThe absolute number infected with HIV and prevalence of HIV by sex : The absolute number infected with HIV and prevalence of HIV by sex Absolute number of HIV positive individuals in all age groups and in both sexes is 1.04 million in 2002, a figure growing to 1.51 million in 2015. Prevalence is estimated at 21.2% in women and 17.7% in men in 2002 and is projected to remain essentially constant at this level to 2015 New HIV infections in men and women by age-group in country A for years 1985, 2000 and 2015 : New HIV infections in men and women by age-group in country A for years 1985, 2000 and 2015 Annual number of infants contracting HIV due to mother-to-child transmission and this number as a percentage of all births : Annual number of infants contracting HIV due to mother-to-child transmission and this number as a percentage of all births In 2002 there were 29 300 infants (6.8% of all births in the year) who were born HIV positive or who contracted HIV through breast feeding, a figure which will rise to 34 300 (6.8%) of infants born, in 2015 Education sector analysis of HIV/AIDS: Education sector analysis of HIV/AIDS Projections based on Ed-Sida model Developed by Dfid, IIEP, World Bank, PCD Previously employed in Burkina-Faso, Benin, Togo, Niger, Nigeria, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Senegal, Zambia Data requirements (I provide): Data requirements (I provide) Country-specific mortality rates not due to AIDS Mortality rates due to AIDS Age and sex stratified HIV prevalence and incidence Data requirements (you provide): Data requirements (you provide) Total annual teacher numbers (by age and sex) Annual number of new teachers recruited (by age / sex) Total attrition rate Primary school-age population (past and projected) GER (past and projected EFA target) Pupil-teacher ratio (past and projected EFA target)Data for Country A (UNESCO, UN Pop Div): Data for Country A (UNESCO, UN Pop Div) Current number of teachers in active service-37000 in 2002 Current annual teacher recruitment-3600 new teachers in 2002 Age and sex of newly recruited teachers to 2015-95% are of ages 20-29; 50% are women Attrition rate of teachers not due to AIDS or other mortality-1.0% HIV prevalence --19.5% in adult population (ages 15-49) School-aged population (ages 6-14)-2.68 million in 2000, rising to 3.62 million in 2015. Target gross enrolment rate-81.7% in 2002, rising to 95% in 2015. Target pupil teacher ratio-60:1 in 2002, declining to 45:1 in 2015.Introduction (5): Introduction (5) Would like to estimate: For country population – absolute numbers of infecteds, HIV prevalence, incident cases by age/sex, AIDS cases, infants born with HIV For education sector – HIV prevalence in teachers, AIDS-related attrition, absenteeism, required recruitment, school-aged children orphaned by AIDS Slide21: The total teaching population will have to rise to 75 500 teachers by 2015 in order to achieve a pupil-teacher ratio of 45:1, and to meet 95% gross enrolment rates. For 2002, 8400 teachers are estimated HIV positive (prevalence of 22.6% in teachers). By 2015, the number of teachers infected with HIV will grow to 17 000 (22.75%) of teachers. Teacher attrition due to AIDS mortality and other causes : Teacher attrition due to AIDS mortality and other causes In 2002 the total annual attrition in the teaching population was 1 900 teachers (all causes), while attrition due to AIDS deaths is 820 (43%). These figures will grow to 3 500 total annual attrition in 2015, of which 1600 are due to AIDS mortality (46%).Teacher absenteeism due to AIDS under medium, low and high rates of HIV infection: Teacher absenteeism due to AIDS under medium, low and high rates of HIV infection 840 teacher-years of absenteeism will be incurred in 2002 alone. This figure will grow to 1720 teacher-years lost through absenteeism in 2015 Required annual teacher recruitment to meet EFA targets under medium, low and high rates of HIV infection in teachers : Required annual teacher recruitment to meet EFA targets under medium, low and high rates of HIV infection in teachers The total annual recruitment will have to have an annual increase of 6.5% in order to reach 8300 new recruits in 2015, from 3600 in 2002, in order to achieve a 45:1 pupil teacher ratio 17% of total annual recruitment is required to replace teacher attritions due to HIV/AIDSNumbers of AIDS orphans (maternal, paternal and dual) of ages 6-14 and this number as a percentage of the total primary school aged population : Numbers of AIDS orphans (maternal, paternal and dual) of ages 6-14 and this number as a percentage of the total primary school aged population 990 000 children of primary school age (6-14 years) in 2002. who have lost one or both parents to AIDS. This qualifies as 36% of all children in this age group. 1.28 million children orphaned due to AIDS in 2015 (36%)of all school age children. Future Steps: Future Steps Collect required data from MoE to refine projections in line with EFA targets Examine robustness of conclusions under range of assumptions / scenarios (sensitivity analysis) Estimate financial impacts of HIV/AIDS (optional) Use of projections for advocacy / planning / policy formulation Economic costs for Zambia: Economic costs for Zambia The major projected financial impact to 2010 associated with HIV/AIDS on educational supply occurs at the level of: teacher training ($15,045,000; 61%), absenteeism ($8,097,000; 33%) teacher funerals ($1,450,000; 6%) Combined the figures imply a total projected cost of $24,592,000. Orphans ($280,000,000). You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.