Introduction to Emerging Markets

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INTRODUCTION TO EMERGING MARKETS Sameer Mathur, Ph.D.

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Sameer Mathur smathur.com Asst. Professor (Marketing) 2009 – 2013 Ph.D. and M.S. (Marketing) 2003 – 2009

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Agenda

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BRIC

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“ Certainly , Mexico, the four BRIC countries and Korea should not be really thought of as emerging markets in the classical sense , as …we regard these countries as a critical part of the modern globalised economy… ” BRIC

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BRIC

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using the A-share market BRIC Growth Since 2001

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World ’ s fifth largest country President Dilma Rousseff Lagging behind growth estimations Brazil

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“ In order for Brazil to raise its growth rates and converge towards its peers in the BRICs, [it] will have to focus on fiscal policy, trade policy, education and modernizing institutions . ” Growth

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Improve savings and investments Lower trade barriers Improve quality of education Introduce structural reforms Brazil’s Underperformance

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2. Lower trade barriers Brazil ’ s trade share = 25% of GDP Russian ’ s trade share: 41% of GDP China ’ s trade share: almost two-thirds of GDP Importance of Trade

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World ’ s second largest population President Pratibha Devisingh Patil India

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6 Major Factors Lowering trade barriers Rise of financial sector Rise of IT sector Golden Quadrilateral Highway Urbanization Land factor Change in India

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4. Golden Quadrilateral

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3,625 miles Four/Six lanes Connects four largest cities : Delhi (N), Kolkata (E), Chennai (S), Mumbai (W) Almost completed… 4. Golden Quadrilateral

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10 of 30 fastest growing cities worldwide Urbanization in India

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Segments in India

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Segments in India

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Consumption in India

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“Share-of-Wallet”

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Income Pyramid

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Consumption Categories

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Attract , educate new consumers. Retain brand loyalty with rising tastes. Offer high-value at accessible (low) price . New Challenges

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World ’ s largest population over 1.3 billion Governed by CPC (Communist Party) China

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“ China ’ s unrivalled economic growth over the past quarter-century has surpassed all records and created a new standard in the history of economic development. ” Annual real GDP growth rate Average of 9.6% from 1978 to 2004 Reference point: Brazil ’ s unattained forecast was 5.0% China’s Growth

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Will China grow old before getting rich? China’s Aging

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China’s Aging

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1978 China’s One-Child Policy

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Economy should continue to grow. Renewed opportunities for China’s neighbors. Aging benefits specific factors ( I nsurance , pharmaceuticals, biotech …). Implications

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Forecast

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Some Numbers

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Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Shenzhen Wuhan Chongqing Chengdu Guangzhou 6 New Megacities

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Migration

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Growth based on industrial development and exports; unsteady, unstable, unsustainable… Increasing private consumption will not only boost GDP, but “ insulate itself from volatility imported from overseas ” Boosting Private Consumption

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% of GDP accounted for by private consumption Boosting Private Consumption

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Three major strategies Expanding availability of products Improving quality of products Increasing availability of consumer credit Boosting Private Consumption

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Three minor strategies 1. Improved social safety-net  would boost health-care and retirement spending 2. Structural reforms  would increase household income 3. Shift towards services  would boost employment, economic growth, consumption Boosting Private Consumption

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By 2015, China will hold the world ’ s fourth-largest concentration of wealthy people. Estimated by McKinsey Quarterly In 2007, there were 421,100 Chinese students ( 15% worldwide ) enrolled in higher educational institutions in overseas countries. - UNESCO Global Education Digest 2009 China

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BRIC

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Summary

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Recommended Reading

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Over 500,000 views from more than 95 countries http://www.slideshare.net/ProfessorMathur/ Sameer Mathur smathur.com http://www.facebook.com/ProfessorSameerMathur/

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