SustainableUrbanPlan ning K Miyamoto

Sustainable Urban Planning based on Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Models: 

Sustainable Urban Planning based on Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Models Kazuaki MIYAMOTO Professor Musashi Institute of Technology (MI-Tech) at Asian Development Bank 4 September 2006

Slide2: 

What is a problem and the fundamental cause?

Slide3: 

What is the best policy and the measure to relieve the problem?

Interaction between Land Use and Transportation: 

Interaction between Land Use and Transportation Land Use　　　　　　 Travel Demand Location Condition　　　Transportation Condition　　　　 Land Use Transportation

Slide6: 

Land Use, Transport, Environment and the Interactions

Examples of Implementation Measure Elements of Land-Use, Transport and Environmental Policies: 

Examples of Implementation Measure Elements of Land-Use, Transport and Environmental Policies ・Regulations Bus priority / exclusive lanes Unleaded gasoline Land-Use Zoning Building control ・Taxation / Pricing Vehicle import / purchase taxes Fuel taxes Land-Use taxes Development charges ・Investment Development of road network Provision of Mass Rapid Transit Housing Development Land development / Readjustment ・Operation） Mass transit operation Area traffic control Flexible working hours Open hours of shops ・Education / Information Car pooling Safe driving Environmental campaign Hazard map

Basic FrameworkThe Case of Japan: 

Basic Framework The Case of Japan

Basic FrameworkThe Case of a Metropolise in Asia: 

Basic Framework The Case of a Metropolise in Asia Time Population Scenario Urban Form Congestion Emissions 2000 2010 2020 Indicators Financial Capital O&M

What are the issues?: 

What are the issues? Institutional Problems Sectionalism Old fashioned idea Technical Problems Tools

Urban Models: 

Urban Models Transportation Model Land Use Model Integrated Land Use Transportation Model

Slide12: 

[ t ] [ t ] [ t ] Land-Use Condition Transportation Condition Environment Conditions Land-Use Model Transport Model Environment Model Converge? Policy Measures Framework ( Economy Population ) [ t ] Transport (V c ) Land-Use (N is ) Environment (E s ) ( t - 1 ) ( t+1 ) ( t - 1 ) ( t+1 ) Y Y N N ( t+1 ) ( t - 1 ) ( t ) ( t ) From Previous Term To Next Term Time Lead / Lag The Structure of An Integrated Land-Use, Transport and Environment Model [modified from Miyamoto and Udomsri (1995)] Converge?

Twenty Urban Models by Michael Wegener: 

Twenty Urban Models by Michael Wegener BOYCE the combined models of location and travel choice developed by Boyce CUFM the California Urban Futures Model developed at the University of California at Berkeley DELTA the land-use/economic modelling package DELTA by Davids Simmonds Consultancy HUDS the Harvard Urban Development Simulation developed by Kain and Apgar ILUTE the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment modelling system under development at a number of Canadian universities IMREL the Integrated Model of Residential and Employment Location developed by Anderstig and Mattsson IRPUD the model of the Dortmund region by Wegener ITLUP the Integrated Transportation and Land Use Package by Putman KIM the non-linear urban equilibrium model by Kim LILT the Leeds Integrated Land-Use/Transport model by Mackett MEPLAN the integrated modelling package developed by Marcial Echenique & Partners METROSIM the microeconomic land use and transport model developed by Anas MUSSA the '5-Stage Land-Use Transport Model' developed for Santiago de Chile by Martinez POLIS the Projective Optimization Land Use Information System developed by Prastacos for the Association of Bay Area Governments RURBAN the Random-Utility URBAN model developed by Miyamoto STASA the master-equation based itransport and urban/regional model developed by Haag TLUMIP the land-use transport model of the U.S. State of Oregon developed in the Oregon Transport and Land Use Model Integration Program TRANUS the transport and land use model developed by de la Barra TRESIS the Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator by Hensher and Ton URBANSIM the microeconomic model of location choice of households and firms by Waddell

US MANDATES in 1990s: 

US MANDATES in 1990s Federal Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA)　 Transportation Efficiency Act (TEA 21) ISTEA (Intermodal Surface Transport Efficiency Act) Oregon State Oregon Transportation Planning Rule (TPR) Oregon Growth Management and Quality Communities Policies

Land Use Models in USA: 

Land Use Models in USA

RURBAN/Sapporo: 

RURBAN/Sapporo Since 1988 Miyamoto’s Laboratory and Docon

Slide20: 

RURBAN/Sapporo MS-Dos version: 1990 Windows 3.1 Version: 1994 Windows 95 Version:1996

Output Example: 

Output Example

TRANUS/Sapporo: 

TRANUS/Sapporo Since 2001 Miyamoto’s Laboratory, Docon and Modelistica

Slide23: 

Vicinity of Subway Area far away from Subway Sapporo Central Station Subway Project N With-Without Comparison of Toho Line

Vicinity of Subway　Project: 

1413 1415 6% 10% 11% 1% -7% 43% 29% 16% 7% -4% 1414 -8% 19% 36% 11% 9% 1km w/o w/ Real PT Real Pop. HH Legend 79% 112% 99% 20% 24% 1416 地下鉄東豊線 栄町 新道東 元町 Vicinity of Subway　Project 環状通東 東区役所前 1417

Area far from Subway Line: 

1619 -4% 20% 24% 5% 1% 1617 18% 3% 33% 43% 47% 1616 23% 12% 76% 62% 64% 59% 43% 167% 121% 123% Area far from Subway Line 1km w/o w/ Real PT Real Pop HH Legend 1615

Sustainable City Analysis: 

Sustainable City Analysis

Sustainability and A Compact City: 

”Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of the future generation to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987)” Sustainability and A Compact City Population Environment Social Economic Consequences and Considerations t t+1 t+2 Sustainable Urban Form: Compact City Development Inter-generational

TRANUS & Quasi-Dynamic Evaluation: 

TRANUS & Quasi-Dynamic Evaluation An integrated urban model (comprehensiveness) Covers all subsystems in urban system Quasi-dynamics spatial allocation model Capacity for large variety of case studies and applications Land Use Transport Land Use Transport Land Use Transport Time t1 Time t3 Time t2 Compact Development Policy

Indicators: 

Indicators

Policy Alternatives Tested: 

Policy Alternatives Tested

Combination Policies Effects: CL + PTP: 

Combination Policies Effects: CL + PTP

Land Use/Transportation Interaction in Bangkok: Impact of Urban Rail Transit and Pilot Model Development: 

Land Use/Transportation Interaction in Bangkok: Impact of Urban Rail Transit and Pilot Model Development Varameth Vichiensan, Kasetsart University Kazuaki Miyamoto, Musashi Institute of Technology - TRANUS/Bangkok-

Impact of Railway to Land Price : 

Impact of Railway to Land Price

Transportation Network: 

Transportation Network

Option: Road Pricing : 

Option: Road Pricing

Option: Transit Oriented Development: 

Option: Transit Oriented Development

Household Density in 2025: 

Household Density in 2025 Base Case Road Pricing TOD

Slide38: 

Nominal Coordination of Land Use and Transportation Substantial Integration of Land Use and Transportation

Quantitative Risk Analysis of Road Projects Based on Empirical Data in Japan: 

Quantitative Risk Analysis of Road Projects Based on Empirical Data in Japan

How to grasp risk: 

How to grasp risk Factor Event Impact Phenomena which are potential causes of impeding the achievement of a goal. - economic changes - natural disasters Direct causes of impeding the achievement of a goal - difficulties in land acquisition negotiations - increased volume of maintenance work results of event 　- increase of the project cost - prolongment of the project period

Correlation Diagramme of Three Elements of Risk: 

Correlation Diagramme of Three Elements of Risk F ：Factor I E ：Event ：Impact Fb Fa Ia Ea Time Ib Eb Fc Ic1 Ec1 Ic2 Ec2 Fd1 Id Ed Fd2

Risks by Different Project Stage: 

Risks by Different Project Stage Surveying and Designing Design Consultation Land Aquisition Construction Work Post-Opening Social Consensus Social Administrative Economical Consensus Technical Consensus Administrative Consensus

Difference Between Plan and Actual Construction Periods: 

Difference Between Plan and Actual Construction Periods

Quantification of Risks by Simulation: 

Quantification of Risks by Simulation 1. Typical project implementation processes. 2. Establishment of Distributions 3. Monte Carlo Simulation

Project Flow: 

Project Flow

Probability Distribution of Impacts: 

Probability Distribution of Impacts Land purchase negotiation Repeated work due to change of the structure

Simulation and Critical Path: 

Simulation and Critical Path A B C D G H J K L M N O P Q R The changes of the critical path can be estimated.

Economic and Financial Impacts ofPrivate-Sector Participation in Infrastructure Projects and Value for Money  : 

Economic and Financial Impacts of Private-Sector Participation in Infrastructure Projects and Value for Money 

The Structure of VFM Evaluation Model: Conventional Scheme: 

The Structure of VFM Evaluation Model: Conventional Scheme

The Structure of VFM Evaluation Model: PFI: 

The Structure of VFM Evaluation Model: PFI

VFM Evaluation System: 

All the Financial Flows are included. VFM Evaluation System Scope of the System Multiplier Effects Forward Linkage Effects Risk Payment - Economic derivative effects by construction investment and the related Taxes. - Economic effects caused by the public service and the related taxes. Insurance only Risk management is not well considered yet.　 Expenditure share among the Public sectors is given to the system. (following the present situation as a default.)

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Results Further Studies (1) To have built a comprehensive evaluation system of VFM which can be applied to various purposes. (2) To have demonstrated the sensitivities of several cases. (1) Some of the tools in the system are still primitive. (2) To investigate the applicability of the system to other countries.