pathways 2050 cd

Slide1: 

Pathways to Energy & climate change 2050

Pathways to 2050: What it is and what it is not: 

This publication discusses future energy shifts in the context of a long term atmospheric concentration of CO2 of no more than 550 ppm. The options discussed are not a scenario, but an illustrative hypothesis to gauge the extent of change needed in our energy infrastructure and the impact that might have on industry. The publication is not an endorsement of any particular pathway, technology or specific atmospheric concentration target. Pathways to 2050: What it is and what it is not

What is the content?: 

At a glance: the changes needed Sectoral megatrends Power generation Industry & manufacturing Mobility Buildings Consumer choices Economic regions and countries USA & Canada EU-25 China Japan Global trends and pathways What is the content?

What is the content?: 

At a glance: the changes needed Sectoral megatrends Power generation Industry & manufacturing Mobility Buildings Consumer choices Economic regions and countries USA & Canada EU-25 China Japan Global trends and pathways What is the content?

Pathways at a glance…Needed reductions: 

Pathways at a glance… Needed reductions By 2050 we need to have reduced CO2 emissions by 6-7 GtC with 1.3 GtC reduced by 2025, compared with the "BAU" case. 1990 Global Carbon Emissions, GtC

What is the content?: 

At a glance: the changes needed Sectoral megatrends Power generation Industry & manufacturing Mobility Buildings Consumer choices Economic regions and countries USA & Canada EU-25 China Japan Global trends and pathways What is the content?

How does energy flow through our economy?: 

How does energy flow through our economy?

One way of representing the challenge: The Kaya Identity: 

CO2 emissions = people x (GDP/Person) x (energy/unit GDP) x (CO2/unit energy) One way of representing the challenge: The Kaya Identity The Kaya Identity breaks down the main driving forces for CO2 emissions into four factors, such that: X X Only four factors govern the outcome: Population Number of people Economic prosperity GDP per person Energy intensity Energy per unit of GDP (energy efficiency of the economy) Carbon intensity CO2 per unit of energy (reflects the emissions from energy production and use)

Illustration of country pathways: 

Illustration of country pathways

Sectors: The global trends: 

Sectors: The global trends

Where are we?: 

At a glance: the changes needed Sectoral megatrends Power generation Industry & manufacturing Mobility Buildings Consumer choices Economic regions and countries USA & Canada EU-25 China Japan Global trends and pathways Where are we?

What needs to happen in power generation?: 

What needs to happen in power generation? Electricity generation by fuel BAU 2025 Pathways 2025 Pathways 2050

An important role for electricity : 

An important role for electricity Potential role of electricity in a carbon constrained world: Most renewable technologies generate electricity; A flexible energy carrier, which produces no emissions at point of use, and offers additional potential for carbon management if generated from low and zero-carbon sources. Shares of electricity in final energy consumption (%) Electricity use is already growing more quickly relative to other energy carriers due to: Increasing numbers of electrical appliances; Information technology; Improvements in electrical applications and a substitution of fossil fuels in end use.

Industry and manufacturing: Wide portfolio of measures and options: 

Industry and manufacturing: Wide portfolio of measures and options Emissions reduction measures: Increase the deployment of currently best available technologies (BATs) especially to developing countries; Improve energy efficiency and fuel conservation; Develop new low-energy and low-carbon intensive technologies; Shift towards electricity and bio fuels. Energy use and emissions levels are rising in industry and manufacturing due to: Rising population levels; Continuing economic growth (e.g., GDP per capita in China increases by more than a factor of 7 until 2050).

Uneven energy intensity in the world: 

Uneven energy intensity in the world Energy intensity of industry Source: WEC and ADEME, 2004

Developments in the Mobility Sector: 

Developments in the Mobility Sector Trends Shift towards mass transportation, which is about seven times more efficient than a light duty vehicle; Need to significantly increase the deployment of highly efficient and hydrogen vehicles; Growing emissions in the aviation sector due to high demand and absence of a large-scale alternative to current conventional fuels. Energy consumption in the mobility sector (EJ) Marine bunkers Aviation Rail transport Vehicles / Road transport

What has to change in road transport? : 

What has to change in road transport?

Megatrend shifts in buildings: 

Megatrend shifts in buildings Energy consumption increases due to: Rising living standards; A growing service sector; The information economy; A shift from rural to urban living. Energy consumption and emissions can be reduced by: Radical design; Placement; Efficient appliances; New materials; In-situ energy generation.

Towards a zero-energy home: 

Towards a zero-energy home

The power of consumer choices: 

The power of consumer choices Today: Energy characteristics of goods and services hardly affect our consumer choices; Lack of consumer awareness regarding energy and carbon issues. By 2050: Society has understood that their choices affect the energy balance; The energy impacts of our choices become completely transparent; Products will have a low-energy and low-carbon value. Household 4.09 Car travel 2.20 Air travel 3.11 Waste 0.25 Total: 9.65 Two families, two footprints (tons of carbon p.a.) The different choices we make today can significantly affect our carbon footprint Source: BP carbon Calculator Household 0.20 Car travel 0.23 Air travel 0.32 Waste 0.10 Total: 0.85

2050: What has happened?: 

The power sector supplies low-carbon electricity from a wide variety of energy sources. Electricity use has increased significantly; 2050: What has happened?

Where are we?: 

At a glance: the changes needed Sectoral megatrends Power generation Industry & manufacturing Mobility Buildings Consumer choices Economic regions and countries USA & Canada EU-25 China Japan Global trends and pathways Where are we?

USA and Canada: Efficient and growing: 

USA and Canada: Efficient and growing

USA and Canada: Exploring economic trade-offs: 

USA and Canada: Exploring economic trade-offs Energy per GDP, MJ per $ CO2 per unit of energy, t CO2 / terajoule 1990 2002 Two extreme pathways, same carbon curve: Energy efficiency improvements, no decarbonization Decarbonization, no energy efficiency improvements

EU-25:A broad based energy infrastructure: 

EU-25: A broad based energy infrastructure

EU-25: The "decarbonization challenge": 

EU-25: The "decarbonization challenge" 2 EJ per year solar 50,000 5MW wind turbines 100 1GW coal power stations 100 1GW coal stations with sequestration 100 1GW oil power stations 100 1GW gas power stations 100 1GW nuclear plants 100 1GW hydro/ tidal /geothermal 10 EJ direct fuel use 50 million vehicles 50 million efficient vehicles (Zero CO2) 100 1GW biomass or waste stations

China: A low-carbon, coal-based economy: 

China: A low-carbon, coal-based economy Energy per capita, GJ 2002 GDP per capita, $US (1995 ppp) 100 75 50 25 0 $6,000 $4,000 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $0 125 CO2 per energy unit used, t/TJ 1990 $8,000 $2,000 1971

China:Fast evolving energy infrastructure: 

China: Fast evolving energy infrastructure

Japan: A sustainable showcase economy: 

Japan: A sustainable showcase economy

In summary: The features of a 550ppm trajectory: 

In summary: The features of a 550ppm trajectory By 2025: By 2050: Examples

Slide31: 

A range of existing technologies and policies, further developed and deployed can deliver a 550 ppm trajectory, but… . . . the scale of change is immense, . . . . . and we need to act now!