cole

 Surveying the Digital Future:The Impact of the Internet: 

Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet Lessons Learned from Six Years in the Field Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg School United Nations November 21, 2006 New York, NY

Lost Research Opportunity: 

Lost Research Opportunity A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in 1948 could have found Where the time for television came from How it affected … consumer behavior, connection to the civic process, desire to travel, career goals and much else

We are undertaking the study of the Internet that should have been conducted on television in the late 1940s: 

We are undertaking the study of the Internet that should have been conducted on television in the late 1940s

Countries and Regions in World Internet Project: 

Countries and Regions in World Internet Project United States Singapore Italy Sweden Japan Great Britain India Iran Australia Bolivia Hong Kong Canada New Zealand Columbia Mainland China* Macao South Korea Germany Hungary Spain Chile Argentina Estonia Portugal Nigeria South Africa Czech Republic Mexico France

Slide5: 

Lessons from Six Years in the Field

Trend #1: 

Trend #1 Internet has become an essential part of everyday life and moved power (real and perceived) into the hands of individuals

Do you keep a personal BLOG, display photos on the web, or maintain your own website?: 

Do you keep a personal BLOG, display photos on the web, or maintain your own website? Q711 (M-3)

By using the Internet, people like you can have more political power?: 

By using the Internet, people like you can have more political power? Q190a (W-3)

How useful and important is your online community / communities to you?: 

How useful and important is your online community / communities to you? Q1202B (H-2)

What do you do when you are logged into your online community?: 

What do you do when you are logged into your online community? Q1205 (H-1)

How often do you interact with other members of your online community?: 

How often do you interact with other members of your online community? Q1206 (H-1)

Trend #2: 

Trend #2 Media use transformed by Internet

Offline Media Use Continues to Change: 

Offline Media Use Continues to Change Internet no longer a threat to television Newspaper and magazine use continues to drop among users Radio use beginning to drop (I-Pod?)

During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities not online? : 

During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities not online? Q690 (B-2)

Online Media making a Real Impact: 

Online Media making a Real Impact Online newspaper, magazines and radio climbing Online books, telephone and television use still very low Online game use very high For young, some online media use VERY high

During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online? : 

During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online? Q700 (B-3)

Trend #3 : 

Trend #3 Reliability and credibility of media varies greatly based on source of the information

Reliability and Credibility of Media: 

Reliability and Credibility of Media Continuing to drop—a healthy trend Credibility high in much of the world Trust in information varies widely depending on familiarity with the source

How much of the information on the World Wide Web overall do you think is reliable and accurate? (Users): 

How much of the information on the World Wide Web overall do you think is reliable and accurate? (Users) Q160 (ML-1)

Information on the Internet: Is it Reliable and Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above): 

Information on the Internet: Is it Reliable and Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above) Stage 5 – RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03)

How much of the information on the World Wide Web sites that you visit regularly do you think is reliable and accurate?: 

How much of the information on the World Wide Web sites that you visit regularly do you think is reliable and accurate? Q170 (ML-1)

How much of the information on news pages posted by establishment media (New York Times, CNN, etc) is generally reliable and accurate?: 

How much of the information on news pages posted by establishment media (New York Times, CNN, etc) is generally reliable and accurate? Q173_1 (ML-1)

How much of the information on Government Websites is generally reliable and accurate?: 

How much of the information on Government Websites is generally reliable and accurate? Q173_3 (ML-1)

How much of the information on information pages posted by individuals is generally reliable and accurate?: 

How much of the information on information pages posted by individuals is generally reliable and accurate? Q173_2 (ML-1)

Life of a 12-24: 

Life of a 12-24 Will never read a newspaper but attracted to some magazines Will never own a land-line phone Will not watch television on someone else’s schedule much longer Trust unknown peers more than experts For first time willing (2005) to pay for digital content. Never before. Little interest in the source of information and most information aggregated. Community at the center of Internet experience Everything will move to mobile Less interested in television than any generation before Want to move content freely from platform to platform with no restrictions Want to be heard (user generated) Use IM. Think e-mail is for their parents

Life of a 25-54 : 

Life of a 25-54 Read off-line newspapers and magazines Like mobile for voice (and a few for data) but do not see their world on mobile phones Aggregate information on-line and use RSS (though few know the term) Community important for tasks, much less so for social. Will stay put. Trust experts on factual information but rely heavily on reviews of peers on hotels, electronics, etc When they create content it is to share reviews and experiences (not diaries or intimacies) Rely heavy on personalized portals for news and financials Care GREATLY about sources of news and information on-line Heavy into e-mail

CONTACT INFORMATION: 

CONTACT INFORMATION Web: http:/digitalcenter.org E-mail: cole@digitalcenter.org Phone: (213) 437-4433