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Premium member Presentation Transcript Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe: Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute (AEI) eberstadt@aei.org “Advancing Economic Growth: Investing In Health” Chatham House, London June 22-23, 2005Health and Demography Limit The Development Possibilities for Post-Socialist Europe Today:: Health and Demography Limit The Development Possibilities for Post-Socialist Europe Today: Inter-Linked Development-Impeding Characteristics Include: Pervasive Population Decline (Driven by Sharp Imbalance between Births and Deaths) Fertility Collapse (Portending “Youth Drought” and Rapid Ageing) Extreme and Rapid Population Ageing at Low Levels of GDP/Capita Serious and Enduring Health Problems, Concentrated in Economically Active Age Groups—Problems Resistant to Rapid Melioration Post-Socialist Europe’s Demography: When “Abnormal” Becomes The Norm: Post-Socialist Europe’s Demography: When “Abnormal” Becomes The Norm Post-Socialist Europe’s Health and Demographic Challenges are without Historical Precedent They characterize the Whole Region (not just some States) These Dem/Health Problems are “Deeply Embedded”: i.e., Policy Interventions to address them may result in unusually Slow and Limited Gains Slide4: Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database FemaleSlide5: Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database, (medium variant projection) NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Population Profiles, Post-Socialist Europe vs. Western Europe:: Population Profiles, Post-Socialist Europe vs. Western Europe: Fundamental Differences TodayBasic Demographic Indicators For Europe By Region (UNPD Projections): Basic Demographic Indicators For Europe By Region (UNPD Projections) W.Europe Russia E.Europe (w/o Russia) Population (million) 2005 431 145 143 Pop Growth %/yr 2000/2005 0.33 -0.46 -0.52 Net Reproduction Rate 2000/2005 0.72 0.62 0.58 Life Expectancy 2000/2005 (Years) 77.6 65.4 70.5 NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Slide8: Source: Calculated from Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005. Projected Population Change, 2000-2025: Russia, Rest of Eastern Europe, and West. Europe: Projected Population Change, 2000-2025: Russia, Rest of Eastern Europe, and West. Europe Russia Rest E.Eur. W.Eur Total Population -11.8% -12.7% + 3.8% Population 15-64 -15.4% -15.1% - 2.3% (Population 15-24) (-36.3%) (-45.3%) (-12.7%) Population 65+ +25.7% +30.4% +44.0% Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2004 Revisions, www.unpopulation.org. NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Extreme Sub-Replacement Fertility:: Extreme Sub-Replacement Fertility: Status and Future Implications For Post-Socialist EuropeTotal Fertility Rate: U.S. (by state), Russia, and Europe, 2000: Total Fertility Rate: U.S. (by state), Russia, and Europe, 2000 Notes: U.S. TFR includes the 50 and the District of Columbia; blue bars indicate TFRs for European countries outside of the EU-15. Sources: Institut National d'etudes demographiques, "Population en chiffres," available at http://www.ined.fr/population-en-chiffres/pays-developpes/index.html (accessed August 4, 2004); National Vital Statistics Report Vol 52, No. 19 (May 10, 2004).Slide12: Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision.Slide13: Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former YugoslaviaRapid Population Ageing for Low-Income Populations:: Rapid Population Ageing for Low-Income Populations: Post-Socialist Europe’s Unstoppable WaveChanges in 65+ Population As Percentage of Total Population: 2000 vs. 2025 (US Census Bureau Projections): Changes in 65+ Population As Percentage of Total Population: 2000 vs. 2025 (US Census Bureau Projections) 2000 2025 Difference Western Europe 16.3 22.7 + 6.4 Bulgaria 16.6 23.2 + 6.6 Czech Republic 13.8 22.9 + 9.1 Estonia 15.0 22.7 + 7.7 Hungary 14.6 21.3 + 6.7 Latvia 14.7 20.7 + 6.0 Lithuania 13.7 21.0 + 7.3 Poland 12.3 21.6 + 9.3 Romania 13.3 19.0 + 5.7 Russian Federation 12.5 19.8 + 7.3 Slovakia 11.4 19.3 + 7.9 Ukraine 14.1 20.6 + 6.5 Percentage of the Population Aged 65+ vs. GDP per Capita: Developed Countries 1950-2000 vs. Emerging Economies 2000: Percentage of the Population Aged 65+ vs. GDP per Capita: Developed Countries 1950-2000 vs. Emerging Economies 2000Slide17: Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2004 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp. Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. (Development Centre Studies, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Paris, 2003), pp. 110-111.Premature Mortality and Allied Health Problems:: Premature Mortality and Allied Health Problems: An Anchor on Economic Development in Post-Socialist EuropeSlide19: Source: World Development Indicators, 2003Slide20: Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth in Europe, by Region: 1960/65 to 2000/2005 (years) Overall LE Male LE Western Europe +7.3 +6.8 Eastern Europe (without Russia) +1.1 -0.8 Russian Federation -2.5 -4.2 Note: UN definition of "Eastern Europe" excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of the former Yugoslavia. Source: Derived from UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, available electronically at <http:www.unpopulation.org>.Slide21: Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005. Slide22: Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005. Slide23: Source:www.mortality.orgSlide24: Source: www.mortality.orgChanges in Life Expectancy at Age 30: 1970 vs. 2000, Male plus Female (Years): Changes in Life Expectancy at Age 30: 1970 vs. 2000, Male plus Female (Years) Italy +5.59 East Germany* +4.62 Czech Republic +3.77 Lithuania -0.21 Latvia -0.87 Hungary* -1.01 Bulgaria -1.02 Russian Federation* -3.06 Source: www.mortality.org; *=1970-1999 Slide26: Note: Calculations based upon current "life tables" for the year 2000. "Europe" includes countries outside of the EU-15. Source: World Health Organization Life Tables, 2000, available at http://www3.who.int/whosis/life_tables/life_tables.cfm?path=evidence,life_tables&language=english (accessed on September 20, 2004).Slide27: Source:www.mortality.orgDeaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries: Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf Post-communist countries Countries which have never been communistDeaths from external causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries: Deaths from external causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf Post-communist countries Countries which have never been communistSlide30: Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005Slide31: Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005Slide32: Source:www.mortality.orgSlide33: Source:www.mortality.orgSlide34: Source:www.mortality.orgSlide35: Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data BaseWhat Is To Be Done?: What Is To Be Done? You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
NicholasEberstadt Peppar Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 42 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: October 15, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe: Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute (AEI) eberstadt@aei.org “Advancing Economic Growth: Investing In Health” Chatham House, London June 22-23, 2005Health and Demography Limit The Development Possibilities for Post-Socialist Europe Today:: Health and Demography Limit The Development Possibilities for Post-Socialist Europe Today: Inter-Linked Development-Impeding Characteristics Include: Pervasive Population Decline (Driven by Sharp Imbalance between Births and Deaths) Fertility Collapse (Portending “Youth Drought” and Rapid Ageing) Extreme and Rapid Population Ageing at Low Levels of GDP/Capita Serious and Enduring Health Problems, Concentrated in Economically Active Age Groups—Problems Resistant to Rapid Melioration Post-Socialist Europe’s Demography: When “Abnormal” Becomes The Norm: Post-Socialist Europe’s Demography: When “Abnormal” Becomes The Norm Post-Socialist Europe’s Health and Demographic Challenges are without Historical Precedent They characterize the Whole Region (not just some States) These Dem/Health Problems are “Deeply Embedded”: i.e., Policy Interventions to address them may result in unusually Slow and Limited Gains Slide4: Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database FemaleSlide5: Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database, (medium variant projection) NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Population Profiles, Post-Socialist Europe vs. Western Europe:: Population Profiles, Post-Socialist Europe vs. Western Europe: Fundamental Differences TodayBasic Demographic Indicators For Europe By Region (UNPD Projections): Basic Demographic Indicators For Europe By Region (UNPD Projections) W.Europe Russia E.Europe (w/o Russia) Population (million) 2005 431 145 143 Pop Growth %/yr 2000/2005 0.33 -0.46 -0.52 Net Reproduction Rate 2000/2005 0.72 0.62 0.58 Life Expectancy 2000/2005 (Years) 77.6 65.4 70.5 NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Slide8: Source: Calculated from Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005. Projected Population Change, 2000-2025: Russia, Rest of Eastern Europe, and West. Europe: Projected Population Change, 2000-2025: Russia, Rest of Eastern Europe, and West. Europe Russia Rest E.Eur. W.Eur Total Population -11.8% -12.7% + 3.8% Population 15-64 -15.4% -15.1% - 2.3% (Population 15-24) (-36.3%) (-45.3%) (-12.7%) Population 65+ +25.7% +30.4% +44.0% Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2004 Revisions, www.unpopulation.org. NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia Extreme Sub-Replacement Fertility:: Extreme Sub-Replacement Fertility: Status and Future Implications For Post-Socialist EuropeTotal Fertility Rate: U.S. (by state), Russia, and Europe, 2000: Total Fertility Rate: U.S. (by state), Russia, and Europe, 2000 Notes: U.S. TFR includes the 50 and the District of Columbia; blue bars indicate TFRs for European countries outside of the EU-15. Sources: Institut National d'etudes demographiques, "Population en chiffres," available at http://www.ined.fr/population-en-chiffres/pays-developpes/index.html (accessed August 4, 2004); National Vital Statistics Report Vol 52, No. 19 (May 10, 2004).Slide12: Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision.Slide13: Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision NOTE: UNDP’s definition of “Eastern Europe” excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former YugoslaviaRapid Population Ageing for Low-Income Populations:: Rapid Population Ageing for Low-Income Populations: Post-Socialist Europe’s Unstoppable WaveChanges in 65+ Population As Percentage of Total Population: 2000 vs. 2025 (US Census Bureau Projections): Changes in 65+ Population As Percentage of Total Population: 2000 vs. 2025 (US Census Bureau Projections) 2000 2025 Difference Western Europe 16.3 22.7 + 6.4 Bulgaria 16.6 23.2 + 6.6 Czech Republic 13.8 22.9 + 9.1 Estonia 15.0 22.7 + 7.7 Hungary 14.6 21.3 + 6.7 Latvia 14.7 20.7 + 6.0 Lithuania 13.7 21.0 + 7.3 Poland 12.3 21.6 + 9.3 Romania 13.3 19.0 + 5.7 Russian Federation 12.5 19.8 + 7.3 Slovakia 11.4 19.3 + 7.9 Ukraine 14.1 20.6 + 6.5 Percentage of the Population Aged 65+ vs. GDP per Capita: Developed Countries 1950-2000 vs. Emerging Economies 2000: Percentage of the Population Aged 65+ vs. GDP per Capita: Developed Countries 1950-2000 vs. Emerging Economies 2000Slide17: Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2004 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp. Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. (Development Centre Studies, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Paris, 2003), pp. 110-111.Premature Mortality and Allied Health Problems:: Premature Mortality and Allied Health Problems: An Anchor on Economic Development in Post-Socialist EuropeSlide19: Source: World Development Indicators, 2003Slide20: Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy at Birth in Europe, by Region: 1960/65 to 2000/2005 (years) Overall LE Male LE Western Europe +7.3 +6.8 Eastern Europe (without Russia) +1.1 -0.8 Russian Federation -2.5 -4.2 Note: UN definition of "Eastern Europe" excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of the former Yugoslavia. Source: Derived from UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, available electronically at <http:www.unpopulation.org>.Slide21: Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005. Slide22: Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5; The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.6; Human Mortality Database, available online at www.mortality.org, accessed January 20, 2005. Slide23: Source:www.mortality.orgSlide24: Source: www.mortality.orgChanges in Life Expectancy at Age 30: 1970 vs. 2000, Male plus Female (Years): Changes in Life Expectancy at Age 30: 1970 vs. 2000, Male plus Female (Years) Italy +5.59 East Germany* +4.62 Czech Republic +3.77 Lithuania -0.21 Latvia -0.87 Hungary* -1.01 Bulgaria -1.02 Russian Federation* -3.06 Source: www.mortality.org; *=1970-1999 Slide26: Note: Calculations based upon current "life tables" for the year 2000. "Europe" includes countries outside of the EU-15. Source: World Health Organization Life Tables, 2000, available at http://www3.who.int/whosis/life_tables/life_tables.cfm?path=evidence,life_tables&language=english (accessed on September 20, 2004).Slide27: Source:www.mortality.orgDeaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries: Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf Post-communist countries Countries which have never been communistDeaths from external causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries: Deaths from external causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years: Russia and Selected European Countries Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf Post-communist countries Countries which have never been communistSlide30: Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005Slide31: Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on 11 April 2005Slide32: Source:www.mortality.orgSlide33: Source:www.mortality.orgSlide34: Source:www.mortality.orgSlide35: Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data BaseWhat Is To Be Done?: What Is To Be Done?