Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow (Internet 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0): Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow (Internet 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0) It’s symmetry & bandwidth, stupid! Gordon Bell Internet World ‘95 12 April 1995


Growth in users?: Growth in users? World population@1.6% Internet growth extrapolated@98%


Growth in users?: Growth in users? World population Internet users telephones & tv range


Outline: Outline All the graphs are up Communication, computing, and content (data) create commerce History -- the role of serendipity Peer structures: Why we need symmetry and bandwidth The players and their motivation It’s still all about Bandwidth. It’s free. ...It’s also unavailable. Speculation NOT


Section: All the graphs go to the right and straight up ... after 25 years!: Section: All the graphs go to the right and straight up ... after 25 years!


Qualitative growth : Qualitative growth Countries: 154 Networks: 40 K Computers 4.8 M People: 20 - 40 M... who knows?? Hours per day surfing per person: ?? Home pages: ?? hits per page: ?? Total networks traffic: ??


Growth in thousands of Internet Hosts 4745% growth from 1985 to 1995: Growth in thousands of Internet Hosts 4745% growth from 1985 to 1995 Data from OpenMarket


Growth in thousands of Internet Hosts 198% per year or 6% per month: Growth in thousands of Internet Hosts 198% per year or 6% per month 2x / year


NSF Backbone traffic (GBytes/month): NSF Backbone traffic (GBytes/month) FTP Gopher WWW Total Data from OpenMarket


NSF Backbone traffic (GBytes/month): NSF Backbone traffic (GBytes/month) ftp 2x/yr= 10X/3yr 20x/yr WWW ?? Data from OpenMarket


Growth in world traffic: Growth in world traffic US row UK Japan, France, Sweden UK,Ge,Canada,Austr Data from OpenMarket


Originating Bandwidth (Gb/s)U.S. Interstate Comm. traffic L Roberts ‘92: Originating Bandwidth (Gb/s) U.S. Interstate Comm. traffic L Roberts ‘92 10,000- 1,000- 100- 10- 1- |1990 | |2000 | |2010 | |2020 Broadcast TV Email Voice FAX Video on Demand Video Conf. NSF bb•


Growth in hype vs reality: Growth in hype vs reality Infoway speculation “how great it’ll be” (politicians , telecoms & futurists) Infoway regulation conferences WWW Infoway addiction lawsuits Data from Gordon’s WAG books, newspapers


Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M): Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M) actual commerce articles about risk and NOT doing commerce Data from Gordon’s WAG organized crime on Internet


Articles per newspaper versusorders per second sent via Internet: Articles per newspaper versus orders per second sent via Internet orders per second articles per newspaper Data from Gordon’s WAG


Gamer-age years hours of play vs time for various machines: Gamer-age years hours of play vs time for various machines Nintendo & Sega Computer games Internet Data from Gordon’s WAG Is Internet ­ gameboy for adults without the attendant improvement in hand-eye co-ordination?


Convergence leads to commerce: Convergence leads to commerce Communication (email, ftp,...,voice Content (databases & multi-media) Computation (rpc, parallelism, client-server, distributed proc. Commerce (communication, MM databases, transactions)


Convergence leads to commerce: Convergence leads to commerce Communicatio Bandwidth Explodes Content Databases increase 60%/yr Computation 60%/yr faster & 20%/yr cheaper! Telecomputer Commerce (communication, MM databases, transactions)


Internet affects $240 B industries : Internet affects $240 B industries Media Who When Industry Size Text/www CERN ‘89 -- Graphics NCSA 3/93 print media 153* Audio SoundM 3/93 Telephony >3 cos 3/95 long distance 65 Contin. Prog.Net 4/95 radio, record 21 Video Qtime 3/93 CU-SeeMe 10/93 teleph. video cnf 91 Mbone 7/92 tv,cable,film 78* 3D & animation... 3/95 -- *book 24, newspaper 48, magazine 21, printing 60; tv 28, cable 21, filmed entertainment 29 **from Technologic partners 4/10/95


So who does it affect?: So who does it affect? communication: snail mail, radio...video substitution telestuff: medicine, science , government, work content: accessing Intellectual Property, dbases reports & papers, SW, backup, ... catalogues : order goods & services recreation: games, groups, mousing around, up and down the trees computing and content: education


What info comes via the post office that could come Internetted?: What info comes via the post office that could come Internetted? catalogues , direct mail, letters to buy things periodicals, newspapers, newsletters, magazines personal purchases including goods personal bills personal finances: reports, transactions personal and formal letters


Section: Where we’ve come from-- serendipity ; ARPAnet, NREN, 3.0: Section: Where we’ve come from-- serendipity ; ARPAnet, NREN, 3.0


History: Story of Serendipity : History: Story of Serendipity Internet 1.0 aka ARPAnet goals: rlogin; load, program, and data sharing Got: rlogin, mail, plus as a service carrier.... bbs/news/chat/muds/moos ftp, and rpc to enable network computing


FCCSET Report on NREN: FCCSET Report on NREN Responded to “Gore Bill” study 8/86 NSF (GB) led the study for agencies need 100K capacity growth (50K- 5G) over 15 years ‘87-’2002 universal service for research & educ. three step plan for bandwidth Goals access to common facilities & supers stimulate communication & dbases images & video require Gbps backbone build on a network hierarchy of backbone, regionals, to campus


FCCSET NREN Plan 11/1987: FCCSET NREN Plan 11/1987 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 10G- 1G- 100M- 10M- 1M- 100K- 10K- 56K 1.5 M Phase 1 45 M Phase 2 3 G Optical a factor of 1000 makes a difference


Internet 2.0 (now)... serendipity : Internet 2.0 (now)... serendipity Internet 2.0 aka NREN aka NII aka GII goals: provide high bandwidth for access to supers & common facilities , visualization, images and video Got: WWW, HTML, Gopher, and Mosaic. Hyper-text links, mousing, slow graphics Bill boards & catalogues to advertise Bit warehouses for text, simple images, voice, and soon RealAudio™ NOT RealTV CU Seeme -- now they’ll know you’re a dog


Internet Structure : Internet Structure Internet WEB Servers Various data servers Thing servers Internet Clients (CATS) 12,000 mile diameter The network (of thousands of networks)


Internet 3.0 goals & vision? : Internet 3.0 goals & vision? dial tone for hi speed, symmetrical links bit warehouses for audio, nice images, 3D (x,y,t), and 4D (3D+z = VR) tele-stuff: remote conferencing, remote work and business universal digital dial tone scaleable & symmetrical: 25 Mbps (not 0.01 -0.1) fungible bits: phone, datacom, 2 & 3d video cost of 2x telephones (telephone & cable)


An architect’s view of Internet: An architect’s view of Internet It’s general, symmetric, a network ...no trees Control and operation of the network fully distributed, size, geography, & bandwidth scaleable It’s like the world-wide phone system...(1920 - Theodore Vail: One system, universal service for connecting anything, anywhere It’s like UNIBUS (c1970 -1985) for connecting computer components It’s like Ethernet (c1978 - ??) for connecting computers in a place It enables SNAP--a world, scaleable computer


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 10. ATT runs “you will” ads not “you can” on Internet


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 9. telcos covet Cable’s couch potatoes, yet can’t service or charge for Internet 10. ATT runs “you will” ads not “you can” on Internet


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 8. you chase a mouse and can’t sit on the couch to buy stuff 9. telcos covet Cable’s couch potatoes, yet can’t service or charge for Internet 10. ATT runs “you will” ads not “you can” on Internet


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 7. more articles on it than home page hits 8. you chase a mouse and can’t sit on the couch to buy stuff 9. telcos covet Cable’s couch potatoes, yet can’t service or charge for Internet 10. ATT runs “you will” ads not “you can” on Internet


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 6. fax lives and we can’t work at home using it 7. more articles on it than home page hits 8. you chase a mouse and can’t sit on the couch to buy stuff 9. telcos covet Cable’s couch potatoes, yet can’t service or charge for Internet 10. ATT runs “you will” ads not “you can” on Internet


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 5. you can order CDs & videos, but Internet can’t deliver them


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 4. you get carpal tunnel from mousing around, trying to find stuff 5. you can order CDs & videos, but Internet can’t deliver them


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 3. this conference isn’t on it 4. you get carpal tunnel from mousing around, trying to find stuff 5. you can order CDs & videos, but Internet can’t deliver them


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 2. congress is regulating it, and there’s more traffic than lawsuits 3. this conference isn’t on it 4. you get carpal tunnel from mousing around trying to find stuff 5. you can order CDs & videos, but Internet can’t deliver them


Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway: Top 10 Why Internet 2.0 is almost the infoway 1. Microsoft hasn’t reinvented it yet 2. congress is regulating it, and there’s more traffic than lawsuits 3. this conference isn’t on it 4. you get carpal tunnel from mousing around trying to find stuff 5. you can order CDs & videos, but Internet can’t deliver them


Section: Players and their motivation: Section: Players and their motivation


Players who’d like to define infoway, cyberspace, etc....: Players who’d like to define infoway, cyberspace, etc.... CATV industry to deliver VOD and phones, paid for by company’s debt Telecoms to deliver CATV for VOD, paid for by our phone bills Long distance carriers who are beginning to see Internet as a market Congress or whoever buys them US... Internet 2.0 users: mousing around and evolving WWW/HTML/Mosaic etc.


The information superhighway is Internet 2.0, NOT: The information superhighway is Internet 2.0, NOT a legislated design what happens when CATV and Telco suppliers propose to Congress and gerrymander the market one-way, slow, asymmetrical , built as hybrid fiber-coax


CATV : Internet= mainframes & SNA : dist. process. =client-server : peer-peer: CATV : Internet = mainframes & SNA : dist. process. = client-server : peer-peer Head end Video Sources Couch Potatoes Sysplexed Mainframes or UNIX Servers 3270 terminals or Clients SNA/LAN Networks CATV Network


Building Internet with 1-way streets, just like cable... stop the backhoes!: Building Internet with 1-way streets, just like cable ... stop the backhoes! Telcos have adopted the CATV and mainframe/SNA model of centrality Their basic idea: skim from our phone bills and fund a CATV network... CATV was legislated to be two way, but has nil backchannel Enables: click to buy, start movie, or make a bet


Merge CATV & Telcos?: Merge CATV & Telcos? Central Office ATM Analog or ATM ATM CABLE TV Analog > ATM Fiber Telephone CATV (ATM Hybrid Fiber) ??


Why we need symmetry:Anyone can be a Producer or Consumer!: Why we need symmetry: Anyone can be a Producer or Consumer! Small difference between homes & offices Computers send & receive equally People (video, virtual reality, etc.) send and receive equally Opportunities for businesses favor scale Video warehouses versus video rental stores Computer apps will move to centralized versus distributed No serendipity headroom ... or new apps


Internet 3.0 : Internet 3.0 universal digital dial tone scaleable symmetrical service: 25 Mbps -- not 0.0144 or .128 Mbps fungible bits: datacom, images, and video-like RealAudio™ 2d & 3d video, phone? cost of telephone & cable


Section: Why we need BW. Bandwidth isn’t free ...but should be: Section: Why we need BW. Bandwidth isn’t free ...but should be


Installed vs laboratory fiber Gbps(it just doesn’t ring true): Installed vs laboratory fiber Gbps (it just doesn’t ring true) 45 Mb 2.5 Gb Installed 43% /yr Laboratory 62% /yr


LAN & WAN Converge?Useful without adequate POTS?: LAN & WAN Converge? Useful without adequate POTS? 1Kb 1 Mb Video ISDN ADSL, etc. ATM @??


Cost (time) for 1 hour of video c1995: Cost (time) for 1 hour of video c1995 5 Mbits/s * 60s/min * 50 min = 15,000 Mbits (1.875 Gbytes) 15,000 Mbits @ 28.8 Kbits / s = 520,833.3 s = 144.7 hours At 128 Kbits/ sec = 32 hours At 1.5 Mbits/sec = 2.7 hours


Time (min.) to transfer some data: Time (min.) to transfer some data


Internet 2.0: symmetry & bandwidth: Internet 2.0: symmetry & bandwidth backbone @Gbps POTS (retail) .03-.13 Mpbs Private nets @1.5-155Mbps plain cats home pages corporate, large organizations worker cats third world home pages POPS Third World (me) CATV Infrastructure people trying to work at home


Internet 3.0: symmetry & bandwidth: Internet 3.0: symmetry & bandwidth backbone @Gbps POTS (retail) .03-.13 Mbps Private nets @1.5-155Mbps plain cats VOD home pages corporate, large organizations couch potatoes CATV third world home pages POPS Third World CATV Infrastructure (3-9 Mbps /channel) work at home ? ATM??


Speculation NOTI don’t see it helping our economy...: Speculation NOT I don’t see it helping our economy... Necessity of bit police since bits is bits and bits are free, but carry intellectual property? Why do we need much of the post office? Can U.S. software engineers compete? what about other knowledge workers?


Internet & the Telecomputer replace the telephone: Internet & the Telecomputer replace the telephone Affordable network access & bandwidth must become available Telecomputers come in various sizes: 1995 prices decline 3x, 9x in 2000, 2005 $1,500 (1995) > $500(2000) >$160 (2005)


Summary: Summary Internet 1.0 laid the foundation ... it gave us mail Internet 2.0 is great ... allows for all kinds of commerce & interaction Internet 3.0 is needed if we want video & “being there” Let’s get the Telcos & Cable folks to build what we need. ... We’re paying for it anyway!


No bit wasting gifs... they waste time & bandwidth: No bit wasting gifs... they waste time & bandwidth Bit wasting gifs


Spares: Spares


Unibus: for building block computers 1970s-1990s: Unibus: for building block computers 1970s-1990s Processors if any, I/O Memories comm 15 m > 1 m. > 10cm.


Ethernet: The Unibus of the 80s (UART of the 90s): Ethernet: The Unibus of the 80s (UART of the 90s) compute server print server file server comm server Clients 2Km


How Will Future Computers Be Built?: How Will Future Computers Be Built? Thesis: SNAP: Scaleable Networks and Platforms upsize from desktop to world-scale computer based on a few standard components Because: Moore’s law: 2x /18 mos. Standards & commodities Stratification & competition When: Sooner than you think! massive standardization gives massive use economic forces are enormous Internet 3.0 Could be the driver!!!!


Unibus: for building block computers 1970s-1990s: Unibus: for building block computers 1970s-1990s Elegance - One, general purpose switch to connect: processor and memory i/o and memory processor and i/o even i/o and i/o Longevity i/o communication remained for 15 years processor and memory links became specialized Progenitor of Nearly all computers, e.g. “multis” 15 m> 1 m > .20cm.


Ethernet: The Unibus of the 80s (UART of the 90s): Ethernet: The Unibus of the 80s (UART of the 90s) Ethernet designed for DEC: Interconnect VAXen, terminals Xerox: enable distributed computing (SUN Micro) Ethernet evolved into a hodge podge of nets and boxes Distributed computing was very hard, evolving into expensive, assymmetric, hard to maintain, client server for a VendorIX apps are bound to a configuration & VendorIX! network is NOT the computer Internet model is less hierarchical, more democratic 2Km