2003 07 11 Sperling PM

Slide 1: 

Transportation and the Hydrogen Economy: Pathways and Strategies Dan Sperling and Anthony Eggert California Energy Commission July 11, 2003 Institute of Transportation StudiesUniversity of California, Davis

Key Insights: 

Key Insights #1: Regional Approach Needed for H2 Transitions #2: For H2 and FCVs to be successful, entirely new ways of thinking about vehicles and fuels are needed. a: Fuel cell vehicles must be viewed as a “new product,” since they won’t be able to compete on cost against ICEs for many years. b: H2 distribution system must have a very different format from today’s petroleum product distribution system.

Hydrogen Pathway Development: 

Hydrogen Pathway Development Future Present Phase I Phase II Phase III Goal: Focus on the “Transitions”! Process/Step Feedstock Production Distribution Storage/Dispensing Application Temporal Development Spatial Development

ITS-Davis StudyTransportation and the Hydrogen Economy: Pathways and Strategies: 

ITS-Davis StudyTransportation and the Hydrogen Economy: Pathways and Strategies Multi-year, multi-disciplinary, collaborative research program (with national labs, UCB, others) Focus on H2 for transportation Regional focus, US context Engage OEMs, energy firms, government, environmental community Initial Corporate Sponsors: BP, ExxonMobil, Shell Hydrogen, ConocoPhillips Nissan, Toyota, Honda

H2 Pathway Program Builds Upon Strong, Expanding Capabilities at UC Davis : 

H2 Pathway Program Builds Upon Strong, Expanding Capabilities at UC Davis Strongest university center in US for study of transport, energy and environment (ITS-Davis) 3 new professors in FCVs and H2 Joan Ogden (from Princeton) Paul Erickson (Mechanical Engineering) Mike Hickner (from Virginia Tech, Chemical Engineer) 45 researchers working on alt fuels, FCVs, and HEVs 15 faculty and senior researchers 30 grad students Several multi-million dollar programs on fuel cells and hydrogen

Toyota FCHV Demonstration: 

Toyota FCHV Demonstration UC Davis and UC Irvine At ITS-Davis: Public education Consumer response Lifecycle costs H2 infrastructure Support safety and permitting education UC Davis Chancellor Accepts FCHV

Fuel Cell Auxiliary Power Unit (APU): 

Fuel Cell Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) Research, develop and evaluate FC APUs for heavy-duty vehicle idling emissions reduction $3 million program Systems: PEM & SOFC Access technical and economic feasibility Partners: US DOE, CARB, South Coast AQMD, Carrier, Freightliner, TIAX, and American Trucking Association Freightliner Truck Arrives at UC Davis

Hydrogen Bus Technology Validation: 

Hydrogen Bus Technology Validation Validate H2/compressed natural gas (HCNG) fuel for buses $3 million program, for first three years (2002-2004) 2+ HCNG buses in full operation Goal: fuel cell bus Research: Evaluate NOx emissions reduction to meet strict 2007 California rules Study role in building H2 infrastructure Launch of Hydrogen Bus Program

Fuel Cell Vehicle Modeling: 

Fuel Cell Vehicle Modeling Five-year research program (1998-2003); 20 members Modeled: Direct Hydrogen, Indirect and Direct Methanol, Indirect Hydrocarbon, Hybridization Components: Emissions Energy consumption Performance Load following FCV Hybrid configurations

H2 Pathways - Program Goals: 

H2 Pathways - Program Goals Research Conduct cross-cutting research that provides foundation to address key issues and strategies. Public Process Engage sponsors and interested parties in developing vehicle and fuel-infrastructure roadmaps for the US – and aggressively disseminate research findings. Build upon and partner with CaFCP, DOE, and other outreach initiatives. Graduate Education - Develop competent engineers, business leaders and policy makers with deep interdisciplinary knowledge of hydrogen as a transportation fuel.

Research Tracks: 

Research Tracks Market Research (Kurani) Energy Infrastructure Systems (Ogden) Energy Station Design and Analysis (Lipman) Lifecycle Costs and Emissions (Delucchi) Demonstration and Pilot Expansion (Eggert)

I. Market Research (Vehicle and Fuel): 

I. Market Research (Vehicle and Fuel) Early Market Opportunities?? H2 Energy Stations (DG) ?? Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS), Peak shaving FC APUs (long haul trucks, refrigeration, cars) ?? H2 ICEs ?? CNG/H2 ICE for heavy-duty bus?? FCVs as “New Products” Onboard electricity, home re-fueling?

H2FCVs will not compete on cost with ICEVs for decades. To succeed, they must be positioned as a “New Product.”: 

H2FCVs will not compete on cost with ICEVs for decades. To succeed, they must be positioned as a “New Product.” Low emissions, energy use On board electricity and new lifestyle uses Vehicle to grid power Electric-drive feel Mobile electronics, tools & appliances Emergency electricity New vehicle designs

Slide 14: 

New vehicle opportunities and advantages … On-board fridge for champagne – 500 W Power tools – 2kW Power an RV – 5 kW Beach barbecue for daughter’s wedding – roast ox, disco, light, heaters – 15kW Download movies from satellites Power the electrical demand of 5 houses (during blackouts?) Receive payments from grid for electricity Remote cool-down and heating before entering vehicle Power an outdoor play/pop concert Melt snow around your car to get out of driveway Power outdoor hot tub for 12 on skiing holiday Downtown access on ‘bad pollution days’ (Europe, Mexico, etc) “Guilt-free” motoring Source: Adapted from Shell Hydrogen, April 2000

Early insight (from interviews of HEV owners): Purchases of “clean” HEVs are a transforming experience.: 

Early insight (from interviews of HEV owners): Purchases of “clean” HEVs are a transforming experience.

Research Tracks: 

Research Tracks Market Research (Kurani) Energy Infrastructure Systems (Ogden) Energy Station Design and Analysis (Lipman) Lifecycle Costs and Emissions (Delucchi) Demonstration and Pilot Expansion (Eggert)

Key H2 Infrastructure and Distribution Issues : 

Key H2 Infrastructure and Distribution Issues Cost analyses (IHIG, Ogden) show that for centralized production, one half or more of H2 costs are for distribution. Mimicking today’s petroleum system is likely to fail Need entirely new concepts and approaches that acknowledge H2 systems will have very different attributes: Will mobile and stationary energy will be integrated (even at Household level?!) Feedstocks (NG, coal, wind, bio, solar, etc.) can be more diverse, and availability and cost can vary dramatically by time of day and across regions. Energy production sites will be more diffuse (distributed).

H2 Production/Distribution Options: 

H2 Production/Distribution Options Source: Air Products and Chemicals Distributed Centralized

Slide 19: 

Utopian Vision – Renewable H2

The messy reality - H2 economics: 

The messy reality - H2 economics

Onsite vs. Centralized - Electrolyzers: 

Onsite vs. Centralized - Electrolyzers At high electrolyzer capital costs ($1K/kw), it is hard to justify running at lower capacity factors to take advantage of off-peak electricity

Onsite vs. Centralized - Electrolyzers: 

Onsite vs. Centralized - Electrolyzers With lower electrolyzer capital costs ($300/kw), economics improve and off-peak operation could be favored.

Research Tracks: 

Research Tracks Market Research (Kurani) Energy Infrastructure Systems (Ogden) Energy Station Design and Analysis (Lipman) Lifecycle Costs and Emissions (Delucchi) Demonstration and Pilot Expansion (Eggert)

Hydrogen Energy Stations of the Future?: 

Hydrogen Energy Stations of the Future? e-  FCV Comp. Storage Pump Natural Gas Fuel Cell Pure H2 e- Reformer PSA Reformate

Hydrogen Energy Stations of the Future?: 

Hydrogen Energy Stations of the Future? “None of the 40-kW fuel cell “service station” H2E-Stations that support only 5-15 vehicles per day are economically viable, with the exception of the “future low” cost cases with H2 sales prices of over $15/GJ. In the “medium term” cases, the stations lose between $5,000 per year and $40,000 per year, and in the “future high” cost cases, the stations just break even with $20/GJ H2 sales, but lose up to $30,000 per year at $10/GJ of H2 sold.”[1] [1] Lipman and Kammen, (2002)

Hydrogen Energy Station Analysis: 

Hydrogen Energy Station Analysis Issues under investigation Reformer sizing and control strategy Storage and compression options Fuel cell sizing and operation Regional and variable energy pricing Cogeneration (CHP) Additional costs (Standby, Exit, Interconnection, etc.)

Research Tracks: 

Research Tracks Market Research (Kurani) Energy Infrastructure Systems (Ogden) Energy Station Design and Analysis (Lipman) Lifecycle Costs and Emissions (Delucchi) Demonstration and Pilot Expansion (Eggert)

How many stations, where, and when?: 

How many stations, where, and when? When should stations be built? “A day before the cars drive up and pay full price for the fuel” – Energy Industry Rep. Availability is not (yet) the problem. The focus should be on: Research and development of competitive (low-cost) production, distribution, and dispensing options. Establishing policies to enable deployment when the vehicle and fueling technologies are ready Codes and Standards development

How many stations, where and when?: 

How many stations, where and when?

How many stations?: 

How many stations? Source: Nicholas (Pending, EVS20 - 2003)

What California State Gov’t Can Do:: 

What California State Gov’t Can Do: Early customer for vehicles and stations Identify attractive placement opportunities (Govt. and non-Govt.) Lower investment risk w/ policy Fuel subsidy (and/or Fuel tax holiday) Subsidize infrastructure strategically – both DG and Stations (establish requirements) Participate in codes and standards development (DG and Stations) Participate in Kirsch/Lipman meeting (Date) Fund University-based research!

Slide 32: 

Thank You