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Premium member Presentation Transcript TV IN THE YEAR 2008 Forecasts and Opportunities: TV IN THE YEAR 2008 Forecasts and Opportunities Carla Sarett, Ph.D., Internet Research Group, Wayne PA & Robin Broitman, Interactive Insights Group, Reston VAAgenda for Presentation: Agenda for Presentation FORECAST AREAS OF CHANGE AUDIENCE TRENDS & IMPACT ON AD SALES PROGRAMMING & FORMATS ADVERTISING TRENDS LOCALIZATION IDENTIFY REVENUE OPPORTUNITIES QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008: TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008 AUDIENCE TRENDS & IMPACT ON AD SALESVIEWER LAZINESS PREVAILS: VIEWER LAZINESS PREVAILS IMPULSE VIEWING GROWS AS NUMBER OF CHANNELS INCREASE FEWER VIEWERS BOTHER TO PLAN TV VIEWING WEAK CONSUMER DEMAND FOR TIVO PVRS & VIDEO ON DEMAND LESS IMPACT THAN FORECASTS PREDICT TIVO-PHOBIA: TIVO-PHOBIA ADVERTISER ANXIETY EXCEEDS ACTUAL AUDIENCE IMPACT NEW AD FORMATS EMERGE TO CONFRONT “THREAT” NEW SERVICE EMERGES THAT RATES JUST ADS HDTV SLOW TO GROW: HDTV SLOW TO GROW CONSUMERS SLOW TO REPLACE TV SETS VOTING WITH THEIR WALLETS CONSUMERS WILL GET ANGRY IF BROADCAST PICTURE LOOKS WORSE ON NEW TV SETS POLICY SHIFTS ARE LIKELY Economics 101: LAW OF SCARCITY PREVAILS: Economics 101: LAW OF SCARCITY PREVAILS HH SHARE DROPS & NETWORK CPMS RISE CABLE & WEB FRAGMENT MARKET EVEN MORE DIGITAL CABLE NETS MAY SKIM OFF UPSCALE VIEWERS (“DOWNSCALING” EFFECT) ADVERTISERS NEED NETWORK’S BIG AUDIENCES MORE THAN EVER AUDIENCE GETS OLDER – & BIGGER: AUDIENCE GETS OLDER – & BIGGER AS AUDIENCE AGES, LEVELS OF TV VIEWING GO UP “ANTI-FOX” NETWORK EMERGES ADVERTISERS FLOCK TO SERVE OLDER WEALTHY DEMO, DEFYING ALL ODDS OLDER VIEWERS = HEAVIER NEWS USERS TV & WEB YOUNGER VIEWERS WILL INCREASINGLY BE FOUND ONLINE Revenue Opportunity: Broadband Local News : Revenue Opportunity: Broadband Local News RE-PACKAGE LOCAL NEWS FOR BROADBAND APPLICATIONS STRATEGY WILL VARY BY MARKET VIDEO STREAM OF ENTIRE NEWSCASTS SHORT FORMAT NEWS WRAP-UPS SEGMENTS (WEATHER, SPORTS, TRAFFIC) TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008: TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008 PROGRAMMING & FORMATS JOE BILLIONAIRE MEETS CINDERELLA: JOE BILLIONAIRE MEETS CINDERELLA DEMAND FOR UNSCIPTED SHOWS WILL CONTINUE FROM TWO SOURCES NEED TO CUT PRODUCTION & TALENT COSTS TIVO-PHOBIA INVENTORY SHORTAGE WORSENS MORE SEINFELD RE-RUNS IN 2008? CABLE NETS SOLVE INVENTORY PROBLEM?: CABLE NETS SOLVE INVENTORY PROBLEM? CABLE & BROADCASTING REVERSE ROLES WITH FEWER “SEINFELDS” IN PIPELINE, STATIONS LOOK TO CABLE INSTEAD OF NETWORKS SELLING LAW & ORDER TO A&E, CABLE NETS SELL WINNERS TO STATIONS SOFT CORE: READY FOR PRIME TIME : SOFT CORE: READY FOR PRIME TIME DISTINCTION BETWEEN NETWORK AND CABLE ERODES FURTHER CONTENT STANDARDS DROP ONE NETWORK BROADCASTS SOFT-CORE PORN AUDIENCES DON’T PROTEST, BUT ADVERTISERS WILL INTERACTIVE TV: NOT SO INTERACTIVE: INTERACTIVE TV: NOT SO INTERACTIVE ATTEMPTS TO TURN SCRIPTED TV INTERACTIVE WILL FLOP WEB ALREADY SATISFIED APPETITE FOR INTERACTIVITY INTERACTIVE NEWS VIA BROADBAND NOT TV TV SHOWS USE TELEPHONE/WEB VOTING & POLLING American Idol GOOGLING OF INTERACTIVE PROGRAM GUIDES: GOOGLING OF INTERACTIVE PROGRAM GUIDES MOST VIEWERS IN 2008 USE SEARCHABLE IPGS TO FIND SHOWS WEB-LIKE SEARCH CAPABILITY MAYBE EVEN SPEECH RECOGNITION STATION BRANDING BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT NEW STRATEGIES TO GAIN VIEWER ATTENTION ON IPGS SCREENS GET LARGER AT HOME & TINIER AWAY FROM HOME: SCREENS GET LARGER AT HOME & TINIER AWAY FROM HOME WIDENING GAP BETWEEN HOME ENTERTAINMENT SYSTEMS & PALM-BASED SCREENS NEED TO CREATE MULTIPLE VERSIONS OF CONTENT ADS AT BOTTOM OF SCREEN WILL BE TOUGH IN PALM-BASED VIEWING LOCAL NEWS GETS PORTABLE : LOCAL NEWS GETS PORTABLE USERS GET NEWS “ON THE GO” PDA’S, WIRELESS, IN CARS & AIRPLANES, WI-FI SHORT FORMAT COST PRESSURE FOR MULTIPLE FORMATS Revenue Opportunity: Mobile News Content: Revenue Opportunity: Mobile News Content DIGITAL SPECTRUM FOR FEE-BASED LOCAL SERVICES VIA MOBILE DEVICES PARTNER WITH TELCOS STATION CREATES & PROGRAMS LOCAL NEWS TELCOS DELIVER BILLING & OPERATIONS TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008: TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008 ADVERTISING TV LOOKS MORE CLUTTEREDTHAN WEB: TV LOOKS MORE CLUTTEREDTHAN WEB PICTURES SHRINK AS MORE ADS & TEXT FLOOD SCREEN VIEWERS PAY COMPANIES TO DELETE “EXTRANEOUS” ADS ON TV SCREEN AS TV LOSERS VISUAL ADVANTAGE, ADVERTISERS TURN TO WEB RICH MEDIA & BROADBAND ADVERTISING GET RESPECTFAST FOOD ADS GET REGULATED : FAST FOOD ADS GET REGULATED BURGERS BECOME NEW TOBACCO PUBLIC SERVICE ADS SHOWING TUBBY KIDS “ACTION GROUPS” FORM TO PREVENT BAD FOOD ADS IN KID AND FAMILY TV ADVERTISING MORPHS INTO INFOTAINMENT: ADVERTISING MORPHS INTO INFOTAINMENT PARADOX: VIEWERS ZAP INTRUSIVE ADS, BUT MORE LIKELY TO SEEK INFO FROM “SPOTS” TO ADVERTISER CREATED PROGRAMS NOT JUST THE PASTA POT! HIGH PRODUCTION VALUES SOCCER TIPS FROM NIKE Revenue Opportunity: Local Infotainment: Revenue Opportunity: Local Infotainment DIGITAL SPECTRUM USED TO DELIVER NEW TYPES OF ADVERTISING LOCAL ADVERTISER-PRODUCED CONTENT LOCAL SPONSORED EVENTS DIRECT MARKETING OFFERS DIRECTORIES TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008: TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008 LOCALIZATION AND HYPER-NICHES LOCAL NEWS GETS MORE LOCAL (HYPER-NICHES): LOCAL NEWS GETS MORE LOCAL (HYPER-NICHES) EDGE CITIES/SUBURBS DRIVE DEMAND FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED NEWS FOCUS ON CITY INCREASINGLY IRRELEVANT TO SUBURBANITES WEATHER, TRAFFIC, HIGH SCHOOL SPORTS NEW CABLE NETS & PRINT MEDIA EMERGE TO MEET DEMANDBROADBAND SERVES HYPER-NICHES: BROADBAND SERVES HYPER-NICHES THE REAL WORLD: FLIP SIDE OF GLOBALIZATION THE WORLD IN WHICH WE REALLY WORK AND REALLY LIVE EXPLOSION OF HYPER-NICHE LOCAL CONTENT ENHANCED BY BROADBAND COMMUNITY ASSOCIATIONS, HIGH SCHOOL SPORTS GRASS ROOTS ADVERTISING COMES OF AGE Protecting Local Identity: Protecting Local Identity BROADCASTERS NEED TO DEFEND THEIR LOCAL BRAND AS COMPETITION HEATS UP TALENT BASED BRANDING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH STATIONS NEED TO BE LEADERS AT LOCAL LEVEL THROUGH PARTNERSHIPS & PROGRAMS Revenue Opportunity: Broadband Digital Info-Mall: Revenue Opportunity: Broadband Digital Info-Mall STATIONS USE DIGITAL SPECTRUM TO OFFER BROADBAND DIGITAL MALL LOCAL ORGANIZATIONS PROGRAM “CHANNELS” (HYPER-NICHES) HOSPITALS, RETAILERS, SCHOOLS 2-FOLD REVENUE STREAM ADS & SPONSORSHIPS DISTRIBUTION FEES FROM LOCAL ORGANIZATIONSProfiting from Digital : Profiting from Digital Package local content for BROADBAND (full stream & short format) Deliver fee-based local content services via MOBILE devices Think “outside the spot” and create new advertising forms Use BROADBAND to distribute array of hyper-niche local channels Contact Information: Contact Information Carla Sarett, Internet Research Group LLC 351 E. Conestoga Rd, Ste. 208 Wayne PA 19087 Tel: 610.971.2119 E-mail: Cjsarett@internet-researchgroup.com Robin Broitman, Interactive Insights Group, Inc. 1284 Lamplighter Way Reston, VA 20194 Tel: 703-708-7156 Email: Robin@Interactiveinsightsgroup.com You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
clearchannel4 4 Patrizia Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 78 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: January 25, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript TV IN THE YEAR 2008 Forecasts and Opportunities: TV IN THE YEAR 2008 Forecasts and Opportunities Carla Sarett, Ph.D., Internet Research Group, Wayne PA & Robin Broitman, Interactive Insights Group, Reston VAAgenda for Presentation: Agenda for Presentation FORECAST AREAS OF CHANGE AUDIENCE TRENDS & IMPACT ON AD SALES PROGRAMMING & FORMATS ADVERTISING TRENDS LOCALIZATION IDENTIFY REVENUE OPPORTUNITIES QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008: TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008 AUDIENCE TRENDS & IMPACT ON AD SALESVIEWER LAZINESS PREVAILS: VIEWER LAZINESS PREVAILS IMPULSE VIEWING GROWS AS NUMBER OF CHANNELS INCREASE FEWER VIEWERS BOTHER TO PLAN TV VIEWING WEAK CONSUMER DEMAND FOR TIVO PVRS & VIDEO ON DEMAND LESS IMPACT THAN FORECASTS PREDICT TIVO-PHOBIA: TIVO-PHOBIA ADVERTISER ANXIETY EXCEEDS ACTUAL AUDIENCE IMPACT NEW AD FORMATS EMERGE TO CONFRONT “THREAT” NEW SERVICE EMERGES THAT RATES JUST ADS HDTV SLOW TO GROW: HDTV SLOW TO GROW CONSUMERS SLOW TO REPLACE TV SETS VOTING WITH THEIR WALLETS CONSUMERS WILL GET ANGRY IF BROADCAST PICTURE LOOKS WORSE ON NEW TV SETS POLICY SHIFTS ARE LIKELY Economics 101: LAW OF SCARCITY PREVAILS: Economics 101: LAW OF SCARCITY PREVAILS HH SHARE DROPS & NETWORK CPMS RISE CABLE & WEB FRAGMENT MARKET EVEN MORE DIGITAL CABLE NETS MAY SKIM OFF UPSCALE VIEWERS (“DOWNSCALING” EFFECT) ADVERTISERS NEED NETWORK’S BIG AUDIENCES MORE THAN EVER AUDIENCE GETS OLDER – & BIGGER: AUDIENCE GETS OLDER – & BIGGER AS AUDIENCE AGES, LEVELS OF TV VIEWING GO UP “ANTI-FOX” NETWORK EMERGES ADVERTISERS FLOCK TO SERVE OLDER WEALTHY DEMO, DEFYING ALL ODDS OLDER VIEWERS = HEAVIER NEWS USERS TV & WEB YOUNGER VIEWERS WILL INCREASINGLY BE FOUND ONLINE Revenue Opportunity: Broadband Local News : Revenue Opportunity: Broadband Local News RE-PACKAGE LOCAL NEWS FOR BROADBAND APPLICATIONS STRATEGY WILL VARY BY MARKET VIDEO STREAM OF ENTIRE NEWSCASTS SHORT FORMAT NEWS WRAP-UPS SEGMENTS (WEATHER, SPORTS, TRAFFIC) TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008: TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008 PROGRAMMING & FORMATS JOE BILLIONAIRE MEETS CINDERELLA: JOE BILLIONAIRE MEETS CINDERELLA DEMAND FOR UNSCIPTED SHOWS WILL CONTINUE FROM TWO SOURCES NEED TO CUT PRODUCTION & TALENT COSTS TIVO-PHOBIA INVENTORY SHORTAGE WORSENS MORE SEINFELD RE-RUNS IN 2008? CABLE NETS SOLVE INVENTORY PROBLEM?: CABLE NETS SOLVE INVENTORY PROBLEM? CABLE & BROADCASTING REVERSE ROLES WITH FEWER “SEINFELDS” IN PIPELINE, STATIONS LOOK TO CABLE INSTEAD OF NETWORKS SELLING LAW & ORDER TO A&E, CABLE NETS SELL WINNERS TO STATIONS SOFT CORE: READY FOR PRIME TIME : SOFT CORE: READY FOR PRIME TIME DISTINCTION BETWEEN NETWORK AND CABLE ERODES FURTHER CONTENT STANDARDS DROP ONE NETWORK BROADCASTS SOFT-CORE PORN AUDIENCES DON’T PROTEST, BUT ADVERTISERS WILL INTERACTIVE TV: NOT SO INTERACTIVE: INTERACTIVE TV: NOT SO INTERACTIVE ATTEMPTS TO TURN SCRIPTED TV INTERACTIVE WILL FLOP WEB ALREADY SATISFIED APPETITE FOR INTERACTIVITY INTERACTIVE NEWS VIA BROADBAND NOT TV TV SHOWS USE TELEPHONE/WEB VOTING & POLLING American Idol GOOGLING OF INTERACTIVE PROGRAM GUIDES: GOOGLING OF INTERACTIVE PROGRAM GUIDES MOST VIEWERS IN 2008 USE SEARCHABLE IPGS TO FIND SHOWS WEB-LIKE SEARCH CAPABILITY MAYBE EVEN SPEECH RECOGNITION STATION BRANDING BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT NEW STRATEGIES TO GAIN VIEWER ATTENTION ON IPGS SCREENS GET LARGER AT HOME & TINIER AWAY FROM HOME: SCREENS GET LARGER AT HOME & TINIER AWAY FROM HOME WIDENING GAP BETWEEN HOME ENTERTAINMENT SYSTEMS & PALM-BASED SCREENS NEED TO CREATE MULTIPLE VERSIONS OF CONTENT ADS AT BOTTOM OF SCREEN WILL BE TOUGH IN PALM-BASED VIEWING LOCAL NEWS GETS PORTABLE : LOCAL NEWS GETS PORTABLE USERS GET NEWS “ON THE GO” PDA’S, WIRELESS, IN CARS & AIRPLANES, WI-FI SHORT FORMAT COST PRESSURE FOR MULTIPLE FORMATS Revenue Opportunity: Mobile News Content: Revenue Opportunity: Mobile News Content DIGITAL SPECTRUM FOR FEE-BASED LOCAL SERVICES VIA MOBILE DEVICES PARTNER WITH TELCOS STATION CREATES & PROGRAMS LOCAL NEWS TELCOS DELIVER BILLING & OPERATIONS TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008: TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008 ADVERTISING TV LOOKS MORE CLUTTEREDTHAN WEB: TV LOOKS MORE CLUTTEREDTHAN WEB PICTURES SHRINK AS MORE ADS & TEXT FLOOD SCREEN VIEWERS PAY COMPANIES TO DELETE “EXTRANEOUS” ADS ON TV SCREEN AS TV LOSERS VISUAL ADVANTAGE, ADVERTISERS TURN TO WEB RICH MEDIA & BROADBAND ADVERTISING GET RESPECTFAST FOOD ADS GET REGULATED : FAST FOOD ADS GET REGULATED BURGERS BECOME NEW TOBACCO PUBLIC SERVICE ADS SHOWING TUBBY KIDS “ACTION GROUPS” FORM TO PREVENT BAD FOOD ADS IN KID AND FAMILY TV ADVERTISING MORPHS INTO INFOTAINMENT: ADVERTISING MORPHS INTO INFOTAINMENT PARADOX: VIEWERS ZAP INTRUSIVE ADS, BUT MORE LIKELY TO SEEK INFO FROM “SPOTS” TO ADVERTISER CREATED PROGRAMS NOT JUST THE PASTA POT! HIGH PRODUCTION VALUES SOCCER TIPS FROM NIKE Revenue Opportunity: Local Infotainment: Revenue Opportunity: Local Infotainment DIGITAL SPECTRUM USED TO DELIVER NEW TYPES OF ADVERTISING LOCAL ADVERTISER-PRODUCED CONTENT LOCAL SPONSORED EVENTS DIRECT MARKETING OFFERS DIRECTORIES TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008: TELEVISION IN THE YEAR 2008 LOCALIZATION AND HYPER-NICHES LOCAL NEWS GETS MORE LOCAL (HYPER-NICHES): LOCAL NEWS GETS MORE LOCAL (HYPER-NICHES) EDGE CITIES/SUBURBS DRIVE DEMAND FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED NEWS FOCUS ON CITY INCREASINGLY IRRELEVANT TO SUBURBANITES WEATHER, TRAFFIC, HIGH SCHOOL SPORTS NEW CABLE NETS & PRINT MEDIA EMERGE TO MEET DEMANDBROADBAND SERVES HYPER-NICHES: BROADBAND SERVES HYPER-NICHES THE REAL WORLD: FLIP SIDE OF GLOBALIZATION THE WORLD IN WHICH WE REALLY WORK AND REALLY LIVE EXPLOSION OF HYPER-NICHE LOCAL CONTENT ENHANCED BY BROADBAND COMMUNITY ASSOCIATIONS, HIGH SCHOOL SPORTS GRASS ROOTS ADVERTISING COMES OF AGE Protecting Local Identity: Protecting Local Identity BROADCASTERS NEED TO DEFEND THEIR LOCAL BRAND AS COMPETITION HEATS UP TALENT BASED BRANDING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH STATIONS NEED TO BE LEADERS AT LOCAL LEVEL THROUGH PARTNERSHIPS & PROGRAMS Revenue Opportunity: Broadband Digital Info-Mall: Revenue Opportunity: Broadband Digital Info-Mall STATIONS USE DIGITAL SPECTRUM TO OFFER BROADBAND DIGITAL MALL LOCAL ORGANIZATIONS PROGRAM “CHANNELS” (HYPER-NICHES) HOSPITALS, RETAILERS, SCHOOLS 2-FOLD REVENUE STREAM ADS & SPONSORSHIPS DISTRIBUTION FEES FROM LOCAL ORGANIZATIONSProfiting from Digital : Profiting from Digital Package local content for BROADBAND (full stream & short format) Deliver fee-based local content services via MOBILE devices Think “outside the spot” and create new advertising forms Use BROADBAND to distribute array of hyper-niche local channels Contact Information: Contact Information Carla Sarett, Internet Research Group LLC 351 E. Conestoga Rd, Ste. 208 Wayne PA 19087 Tel: 610.971.2119 E-mail: Cjsarett@internet-researchgroup.com Robin Broitman, Interactive Insights Group, Inc. 1284 Lamplighter Way Reston, VA 20194 Tel: 703-708-7156 Email: Robin@Interactiveinsightsgroup.com