Slide1: World Trade: Driving Forces Dale Andrew OECD Trade Directorate International Union of Marine Insurers Amsterdam 19 September 2005


World trade – driving forces: World trade – driving forces Economic growth Global growth China and India Trade liberalisation The Doha round Regional agreements Unilateral liberalisation Transport and other transaction costs Technology Fuel prices New security measures


Economic Growth: Economic Growth


Trade drives growth: Trade drives growth


Globalisation: Globalisation


World merchandise exports by region: World merchandise exports by region


World merchandise imports by region: World merchandise imports by region


China’s trade-led growth: China’s trade-led growth Share of world exports 1985: 1.2% 2004: 6.5% Share of world imports 1985: 1.7% 2004: 5.9% Share of world GDP 1985: 2.5% 2003: 3.9%


Latest developments: Latest developments GDP growth 9.5% first half of 2005 Exports + 33% Imports + 14% Industrial value added +11.2% Slow-down in investment growth Managed float of the RMB gradual appreciation expected narrowing trade balance expected


Will China’s growth continue?: Will China’s growth continue? Probably a soft landing, but there are risks: Sharp investment slowdown – current investment level is unsustainable New protectionist measures (USA, EU) Long-run adjustments: Private consumption increases share of GDP The current account and capital account surpluses will narrow


China invests in ports & logistics parks: China invests in ports & logistics parks Shenzhen – world’s fourth busiest port -- has 3 projects to increase capacity to > 18 mn TEU (13.7 mn TEU in ’04, up 28% from ‘03) Tianjin is opening 7 key logistics parks (50 logistics centres currently) Liaoning province constructing international shipping centre and new berths


Bottlenecks facing China’s expansion: Bottlenecks facing China’s expansion Shortage of skilled logistics staff Licensing issues Logistics licenses are restricted Hidden costs Levy on vehicles painted with company colours or logos


Will India be the next growth miracle?: Will India be the next growth miracle? Reforms could release formidable potential Infrastructure bottlenecks Policy uncertainty But China faced formidable obstacles too!


Trade drives growth But what drives trade?: Trade drives growth But what drives trade? Lower trade barriers: Tariffs reduced from 40 to 5 per cent since 1948 Transport costs reduced Technology Organisational innovations ICT Increasing role of other trade barriers As tariffs and transport costs come down, Standards, security measures institutions and time become relatively more important Creating need for international co-operation in new areas


Slide15: Only the foolhardy take risks when the rules are unclear Bernstein (1996), p 68


Trade and risks : Trade and risks Political instability, terrorism Policy intervention (e.g. in textiles trade) Fuel price hikes Pandemic diseases, natural disasters Insurance can facilitate trade by sharing risks, but not all types of risks can be insured


Trade is vulnerable to risks: Trade is vulnerable to risks 9/11 Oil price hikes


Trade and rules: Trade and rules WTO and other international organisations promote rules-based trade


State of play in Doha Development Round at the summer break: State of play in Doha Development Round at the summer break Agriculture is stalled and holds up the rest GATS: 68 initial and 24 revised offers had been submitted, but hardly any new market opportunities from them; There is not a crisis, but most important decisions are back-loaded to the autumn


Slide20: Why are services vital to developing countries? Services represent essential inputs in the production of virtually all goods and services. Developing countries have the potential to make significant welfare gains from further services liberalisation.


Slide21: The GATS is an extremely flexible agreement. The flexibility in the GATS extends to all Members. This flexibility has led some to call the GATS the most “development friendly” of the WTO agreements. GATS: a flexible Agreement


Structure of Market Access Commitments by Mode, August 2004: Structure of Market Access Commitments by Mode, August 2004 Source: Marchetti 2004.


GATS Commitments by Country Group,March 2005: GATS Commitments by Country Group, March 2005


Slide24: Technical Assistance in the GATS: Evidence on the Ground Since 2001, the WTO-OECD Doha Development Agenda Trade Capacity Building Database (TCBDB) has tracked services-related TA programmes. Technical assistance is being provided at the national level (e.g. government agencies) as well as through international organisations. The data reveal that much more can be done to increase developing country capacity in services.


The GATS - Insurance: The GATS - Insurance By March 2005, 81% of WTO members had made commitments in financial services Financial services is the GATS sector with the most restrictions per commitment OECD paper: Managing request-offer negotiations of insurance services


OECD Resources on Trade: OECD Resources on Trade http://www.oecd.org/trade Insurance services checklist Policy Briefs on services and other topics for the WTO Hong Kong Ministerial dale.andrew@oecd.org hildegunn.nordas@oecd.org