Tue plenary Altalo

Don’t Ask Me What I Want, Ask Me What I Do: The Key To Valid Requirements Documentation: 

Don’t Ask Me What I Want, Ask Me What I Do: The Key To Valid Requirements Documentation Mary Altalo CORE/Ocean.US m.altalo@ocean.us

Understanding How Climate Information is used- Getting to Requirements: 

Understanding How Climate Information is used- Getting to Requirements Climate Information in Federal Resource Management Decisions Setting codes and standards- building safety Management of natural resources-water, forests Regulatory oversight of social systems: energy, transport, water, health Climate Information in International Trade/Aid Decisions Treaty and Trade Agreements –Canada Northern Trade Route Aid priorities and planning- Zimbabwe Power, resettlement issues Climate in Industry Operations and Planning Decisions Tactical Operations Strategic Planning From Mitigation to Adaptation From Way of Life (practice) to Business Process Reengineering (new tools and practices)

Slide3: 

Getting at the Need The “worst nightmare” according to head of the PUC is that the Governor’s office calls and asks “what is going on and when will services be restored?” and they don’t know Thus the need for “Situational Awareness” More than just environmental awareness-It is the status of the operations of power, water, communications, police, pipeline, toxic spill etc. Need probabilities of strikes for action This is where climate information is most useful

Diagnostic Approach to Assessing Vulnerability and Risk: 

Diagnostic Approach to Assessing Vulnerability and Risk From SAIC technical report to NOAA

Who are the users? Why do they use it? How are they organized?How do they use it?: 

Who are the users? Why do they use it? How are they organized? How do they use it?

Slide7: 

Other sectors---other uses

Driving Principles for Managing with Environmental Information: 

Driving Principles for Managing with Environmental Information Regulatory Decision Accountability/Shareholder Value Safety of Life and property Market Economics & Competitive Advantage Risk reduction Reliability, Efficiency, Sustainability Corporate Social Responsibility- Indices

Slide9: 

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Slide11: 

RECREATION & TOURISM INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE METRICS:The Business Models Revenue per available room (RevPar) Accommodation sector Occupancy rates Accommodation sector Occupancy percentage Accommodation sector Average Daily Rates (ADR) Accommodation sector Comparative Operating Rates (COR) Accommodation sector Gross Operating Profit (% before fees) Across the industry Economic Impact Assessment Across the industry Financial rate of Return (FRR) Economic Rate of Return (ERR) International arrivals[1] Travel sector Journeys made Travel sector  

Building Industry Decisions Requiring Environmental Information: 

Building Industry Decisions Requiring Environmental Information Seismic/soil Air/water Quality Sea Level/beach SST Red tides Ppt/temp Climate, ppt, temp, winds Fire risk Storm surge Winds Sea breeze Precipitation T,humidity,cloud cover, ppt Air quality Emissions/air and water

Slide15: 

Critical forecast periods Sub day, 2-4 day, 90 day

Power Industry Decision Aid Architecture: 

Weather Decision Support Analysis Tool Set for Power Management Market Demand Fuel Type Fuel Price Regulatory Constraints Fuel Availability Maintenance Power Pricing Tactical Planning Infrastructure Planning , Design & siting Generation Commitment Dispatch Management Strategic Planning Revenue Forecasting / Stock Pricing Load Balancing Market Demand Regulatory Constraints Equipment Readiness Grid Availability Weather Impacts Emergency Response Market Demand Fuel Type Fuel Price Regulatory Constraints Fuel Availability Market Demand Transmission Constraints Maintenance Availability Congestion Infrastructure Tariff Calling Market Demand Price Options Environmental Constraints Available Generation Power Industry Decision Aid Architecture

Slide17: 

Shareholder Value

Activating the Information: 

Activating the Information Link to an Engineering Requirement “Codifying”

Turning a “Parameter” into a “Factor” in an Engineering Equation The key to “activating” observing system Information: 

Turning a “Parameter” into a “Factor” in an Engineering Equation The key to “activating” observing system Information Case study 1: Activating rain and wind data in reservoir management. Improved precipitation, and winds feed into actions for runoff conservation, reservoir management, water quality The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) due to rainfall A=RKLSCP soil erosion the equation due to Wind E = f (I K C L V) Climatic factor C determined by wind velocity and soil surface moisture R rainfall erosion index, which includes the amount as well as the “force” of the precipitation Better ocean observations and Ocean-atmospheric models lead to better precipitation forecasts Better ocean observations and models lead to better wind forecasts

Activating Inundation and Sea Level Information: 

Activating Inundation and Sea Level Information Case Study Two: Wave, sea level, storm surge, wave height and Beach Erosion and sediment transport 4 Affected Hydrodynamic Processes which are measures by GOOS Storm Surge Tidal Ranges and Currents Waves With rising sea level, there is increased impact of coastal storms. Improved wave prediction as well as the “inundation” parameters are required in the mitigation strategies of beach nourishment and armament The relationship between sea level rise and waveheight (Dean,1986) Relationship between wave height and beach erosion Dean (1986)

Link to Decision Support Tools and Management Scenarios: 

Link to Decision Support Tools and Management Scenarios

Linking Forecast Simulation Tools with Emergency Response Simulation Tools can aid in Severe Weather Emergency Energy Management: 

Linking Forecast Simulation Tools with Emergency Response Simulation Tools can aid in Severe Weather Emergency Energy Management Storm Tracking with simulation tool- predict hurricane landfall Emergency preparedness with “CATS” (consequence assessment tool set) Locate critical energy assets, estimate damage and position for relief “Expert Grid” Situational Awareness and Power Restoration Management Decision Tool Data-Information Knowledge Action and Outcomes OMEGA Critical Infrastructure list CATS

Economic Valuations for Risk Reduction: 

Economic Valuations for Risk Reduction

The Value of a Seasonal Seabreeze Forecast to Energy Demand Forecasting: 

The Value of a Seasonal Seabreeze Forecast to Energy Demand Forecasting 2. Major Sea Breeze Events Cause Significant Electricity Demand Error as power demand drops. Savings of up to 2 million per year for increased accuracy of forecast 1. Major sea breeze events (May-September) are not captured adequately in the day ahead temperature forecast 3. Bringing in more wind observation data can enhance forecast accuracy 4. Using ensemble forecasting techniques can enhance information content of the forecast (probabilities) adding “spread” around forecast (LSE/ L. Smith) 5. Improving power management for national grid operators SiteWind

Value of Improved Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts to Agriculture Irrigation Pump Load Forecasting and Power Grid Stability: 

Value of Improved Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts to Agriculture Irrigation Pump Load Forecasting and Power Grid Stability 1. Timing and total irrigation time varies from season to season depending on soil moisture causing unpredicted draw on electricity grid due to start of pumps

Value of Ensemble Forecasting to Electricity Load Forecast Accuracy: 

Value of Ensemble Forecasting to Electricity Load Forecast Accuracy 1. Existing weather error is costly 2. Ensembles have more information- Precision & Probability 4. Saves Utility network operator $15M during summer peak period over present method 3. Works with asymmetric cost curve

Further Thoughts...: 

Further Thoughts... Sustainable development = economic, social and environment prosperity In developing nations its about installing capability, in developed its about performance improvement, efficiency, reliability, risk (vulnerability) reduction, Eliminate the industry bias-Business may go from culprit to saviors through innovation Engage the Business Schools and Schools of Management/ Economics- they are academics training the “informed” CEOs of tomorrow--they are missing!! Develop curricula on using environmental information for operational optimization and competitive advantage, using probabilistic information in Decisions, improving decision support tools, scenarios, BPR, adaptive management practices, “Science to solutions” Make Knowledge Transfer on par with Technology Transfer with performance metrics “Beta test” (industry trial) new environmental Information in business operations Present in their medium-business congresses, trade journals, Follow the business champions from WSSD- Industry and NGOs aligned with action plans, governments did not Follow the regional champions- Western Governors, Drought Information