seearoundcorners

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See Around Corners, Gaze Beyond the Horizon: Unintended Consequences and the Implications Wheel David Bowers CASE Fundraising for Graduate and Professional Schools January 25-26,2007 The Implications Wheel® A Strategic Exploration Tool by Joel Barker Implications Wheel is a registered trademark, and the Implications Wheel graphic is a trademark, of Joel A. Barker.

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When were you taught to anticipate the future? Implications Wheel, a decision enhancing, NOT decision making, tool– A Map of the future A Combination of Product Process

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Wagon master and Scouts Many Directions Speed Sampling Qualitative NOT Quantitative Not “River moving @ 7MPH,” but “there’s a fast moving river 1 day’s walk from here.”

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Implications Wheel Mapping—lays out geography, is NOT the plan Decision enhancing Wagon master still has decision to make

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Implications Wheel Process A fast Organized Group based Crowd’s wisdom Participation/Buy in

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds Under the right circumstances crowds can be smarter than individual experts Under wrong circumstances crowds can be mobs What’s required for crowds to work well?

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds Francis Galton and the 1906 West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition’s “Guess the weight of a slaughtered and dressed ox” contest.

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds Francis Galton 85 yr old scientist Statistics and Heredity Contest: 800 people paid 6 pence a piece to look and an ox and guess its weight once dressed.

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds Few experts, mostly plain folks After contest, Galton bought the guesses Analyzed them Mean—collective wisdom if the crowd had been 1 person

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds Mean was 1197 Correct answer was 1198 “’The result seems more creditable to the trustworthiness of a democratic judgement than might have been expected,’” he wrote in Nature

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds Economists Angela Hung and Charles Plott University students and marbles 2 urns w/light and dark marbles Urn A: Twice as many light as dark Urn B: Twice as many dark as light Pick a marble, correctly guess which urn it came from, win a couple of dollars

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds Economists Angela Hung and Charles Plott Participants lined up, and in turn picked, looked, guessed. Saw his/her marble and heard others guess Would you guess Urn A when you pulled a light marble when 4 students in front of you had all guessed B? Most wouldn’t and 78% of the time information cascades started.

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds Economists Angela Hung and Charles Plott Changed the rule—no one gets paid unless the majority guesses correctly. Now each person’s private information, his/her marble became quite important—although individual might be wrong, if each voted based on marble in hand, group was likely to be right.

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Surowiecki’s 4 Requirements for Wise Crowds Diversity of Opinion Independence Decentralized knowledge Means of aggregating

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Implications Wheel Answers those requirements All opinions count, rule is: It must be possible Majorities rule, minorities report, no convincing/consensus required Greater breadth of experience/knowledge the better I-Wheel=highly visual report of the group’s wisdom

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Some benefits of Strategic Exploration using the Implications Wheel See and understand what you’re really getting into Anticipate the future by uncovering implications that might otherwise never have been seen Prepare alternative responses in anticipation of negative consequences Involve people with diverse opinions without debate Identify connections between implications Communicate clearly with others to show implications you’ve discovered.

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Who’s used the I-Wheel? Notre Dame Coke NASA North Carolina Electronics and Information Technology Association Planet 2025 Learning Network MI Small Business and Tech Dev Center UT Small Business and Tech Dev Center OK Small Business and Tech Dev Center American Association of School Administrators Black and Decker CA Dept ED City of Carlsbad Elon College Concordia College California Western School of Law

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Break to review posted wheels Orleans Parish Schools Elon University Aging Baby Boomers in the workforce Time for Joel and Implications Writing

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Increased regulation of IP Law WAY TOO GENERAL Better: More lawsuits filed to protect new intellectual property developed by local university.

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Charitable giving goes up from companies STILL GENERAL—Who is giving and why? BETTER: Successful companies increase corporate charitable gifts to gain tax benefits

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Increased demand for housing STILL GENERAL—Where? BETTER: Increased demand for housing near areas of job growth

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Reduced day traffic STILL GENERAL—Why? BETTER: Fewer trucks on city streets at any given hour because they are spread over a 24 hour period. Think about the specific implications you will write based on the second that otherwise wouldn’t be mentioned.

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications May not replace lost jobs STILL GENERAL BETTER: May not replace lost jobs because so much automation is used in new businesses

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Whole new set of scheduling problems Not very easy to understand implication BETTER: May become difficult for terminal staff to anticipate long shore work load for scheduling purposes

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Truckers like added flexibility Better: Truckers able to transport goods to their destinations more quickly Why’s it better? The second lets us know exactly what sort of flexibility the truckers might like

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Employees’ attitudes about the company may change BETTER: Employees’ attitudes about pay practices in the company sour because of wage freeze. We need to know the direction of the change and the reason for it.

Creating Good EnoughImplications: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Food prices rise Consumers see slight increase in food prices using HPP to protect food In the first we don’t know the cause of the increase. In the second, we do, even if we disagree, it is a possibility.

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Now it’s time for some small group work…. Groups discuss/report your thoughts on what’s wrong with these implications and how they can be made “good enough.”

Creating Good EnoughImplications Part 2: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Part 2 Attract and retain persons of intellectual capabilities Two hiding in one BETTER: Attract university professors with innovations to be turned into new businesses

Creating Good EnoughImplications Part 2: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Part 2 Terminals may experience additional costs What’s the source of those costs? BETTER: Terminals experience additional cost for added shifts.

Creating Good EnoughImplications Part 2: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Part 2 Food companies “bad mouth” new sterilization process Why? BETTER: Food companies that don’t want to spend money on HPP badmouth it so that they don’t have to adopt it.

Creating Good EnoughImplications Part 2: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Part 2 Managers may demand training TOO GENERAL BETTER: Managers demand immediate training to deal with employee resistance to quality initiative

Creating Good EnoughImplications Part 2: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Part 2 Access to new electricity in Mexico will change their demand “Change” is not a good word for implications—too vague BETTER: Access to new electricity in Mexico increases demand by 30% in the next year

Creating Good EnoughImplications Part 2: 

Creating Good Enough Implications Part 2 More options Sometimes when working too quickly groups leave things too vague. BETTER: Employees have twice as many options for health care providers under the new plan

Scoring: 

Scoring Score for Desirability and Likelihood Desirability +1 Better than nothing +2 OK +3 Desirable +4 Very Desirable +5 Extremely Desirable

Scoring: 

Scoring Score for Desirability and Likelihood Desirability -1 Negligible problem -2 Something that would bother you -3 Undesirable -4 Very Undesirable -5 Extremely Undesirable

Scoring: 

Scoring Score for Desirability and Likelihood Desirability Two special scores, for implications that may be so good or so horrific that you need to signify something much bigger: +50 -50

Scoring: 

Scoring Minority Reports When someone (or more) doesn’t agree with the majority position , write a minority report. Example majority says it’s a +5 and you think it’s a -4, we want to record Your Score Your Reason Your Name

Scoring: 

Scoring Score for Desirability and Likelihood Likelihood: 1 through 9 1 Highly Unlikely 9 Highly Likely NO 0’s or 10’s--- If it isn’t possible it ought not be on the I Wheel, and no one knows the future!

Scoring: 

Scoring Time Diamonds, Bridges, Barriers Time Diamonds– how long from one implication to its consequence? Bridges—What might be ways to ensure we arrive at a desirable implication? Barriers—How might we ensure that we avoid an undesirable implication?

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Ready, Set, EXPLORE! Implications Wheel is a registered trademark, and the Implications Wheel graphic is a trademark, of Joel A. Barker.