3 SchoolDistrictBudget Votes2006

School Budgets Win Better Grades: 

School Budgets Win Better Grades Preliminary Analysis of May 16, 2006 School District Budget Votes New York State Council of School Superintendents

The passage rate for school budgets rebounded after two years of declines: 

The passage rate for school budgets rebounded after two years of declines

Long Island led the rebound with more than a 20 point gain in budgets passing: 

Long Island led the rebound with more than a 20 point gain in budgets passing

Pass rates in much of economically troubled upstate have remained in the 90% range for the past 4 years*: 

Pass rates in much of economically troubled upstate have remained in the 90% range for the past 4 years* *see next to last slide for how regions are defined

Pass rates have been falling in the Lower Hudson Valley and the Mid-Hudson has lagged for 3 years: 

Pass rates have been falling in the Lower Hudson Valley and the Mid-Hudson has lagged for 3 years Lower Hudson: Putnam, Rockland and Westchester Counties Mid-Hudson: Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan, and Ulster Counties

There are big swings in turnout from year to year: 

There are big swings in turnout from year to year 2004: Drop in pass rate due chiefly to decline in “yes” voters. 2005: 16% jump in “no” voters 2006: 7% drop in “no” voters – impact of Legislature’s favorable school aid.

There are wide swings within regions –change in “yes” votes: 

There are wide swings within regions – change in “yes” votes

Swings within regions – “No” votes: 

Swings within regions – “No” votes

Regional Highlights – Long Island: 

Regional Highlights – Long Island “Yes” votes +19% over 2005 “Yes” votes up +35% from 2 years ago Impressive “get-out-the vote” efforts “No” votes down 10% from 2005 - Impact of favorable state aid Long Island districts proposed second lowest increase in per pupil tax levy of any region – 5.3%; state average: 6.0%. Observation: 35% increase in yes voters impressive and heroic given negative forces; should dispel thoughts that there are points to be scored by beating up on public schools.

Regional Highlights – Lower and Mid-Hudson Valley: 

Regional Highlights – Lower and Mid-Hudson Valley Proposed 2006 Per Pupil Tax Levy Increases Lower Hudson: 7.0% -- 2nd highest region Mid-Hudson: 7.1% -- highest region

Regional Highlights – Western New York: 

Regional Highlights – Western New York Pass rate: 99% Yes votes: Down 15% from 2005 No votes: Down 23% from 2005 Proposed spending and tax increases: Spending: +4.9% (2nd lowest region) Tax Levy: +4.2% (lowest region)

Regional Highlights – Several Upstate regions able to sustain high pass rates despite drop in yes turnout: 

Regional Highlights – Several Upstate regions able to sustain high pass rates despite drop in yes turnout How? Regions started with very high “yes” margins (64% in 2003, compared to 60% for rest of state). In some regions, no votes have declined as much or more.

Differences – Passing and Failing: 

Differences – Passing and Failing Nearly a 50% swing in turnout of “no” voters between districts with passing and failing budgets.

Observations: 

Observations On average, Legislature’s school aid kept pace with costs, helped reduce property tax pressures Per pupil spending up by same percent as in 2005 (6.2%); but tax levy increase down by 1.1% (from 7.1% to 6.0%). Reduced property tax pressure helped bring down no votes (by 7% statewide).

Observations, cont.: 

Observations, cont. Long Island has made impressive get-out-the-vote efforts, increasing yes votes by 35% over 2 years. Could help dispel thoughts that political points can be scored by beating up on schools. Mid-Hudson Valley has struggled for 3 years, has lowest pass rate of any region this year. Upstate has generally maintained high pass rates despite declines in yes turnout. Caution: regions may be caught flat if fiscal conditions worsen, provoking “no” vote surges.

The regions:: 

The regions: Long Island: Nassau, Suffolk Lower Hudson Valley: Putnam, Rockland, Westchester Mid-Hudson Valley: Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan, Ulster Capital Region: Albany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Warren, Washington Mohawk Valley: Fulton, Herkimer, Montgomery, Oneida, Schoharie Central New York: Cayuga, Cortland, Madison, Onondaga, Oswego, Tompkins North Country: Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lewis, St. Lawrence Southern Tier: Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Schuyler, Steuben, Tioga Finger Lakes: Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Orleans, Seneca, Wayne, Wyoming, Yates Western New York: Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Niagara Only school districts that receive regular school aid are included in this analysis

Slide17: 

New York State Council of School Superintendents 7 Elk Street  Albany, New York 12210 (518) 449-1063 www.nyscosss.org