Economic Development of Japan : No.6 WW1 and 1920s Economic Development of Japan 大正時代
Trade Structure in Meiji (incl. colonies) : Trade Structure in Meiji (incl. colonies) Exports to West--silk to US (60-70%) dominated
Imports from West--machinery, steel, US raw cotton
Exports to other areas--cotton products, light industry goods (matches, umbrellas, clocks, glass products, lamp, knitted goods)
Imports from other areas--foodstuff, Indian raw cotton
Trade content with developing areas & with colonies were similar Taiwan, Korea, occupied China Developing areas Europe, US Export Import Source: Y.Yamamoto & K.Oku, “Trade,” JEH vol.5, 1990.
Society, Economy, Diplomacy: 1910s-20s : Society, Economy, Diplomacy: 1910s-20s WW1 brought a huge export-led boom to Japan. This solved fiscal and BOP problems (for the moment).
The bubble burst in 1920 and a recession period began.
FDI and import substitution in heavy industries proceeded, and new zaibatsu emerged.
Taisho Democracy and the rise of social movements (labor, farmers, women, “outcasts,” socialism)
Shidehara Diplomacy—use non-military means (diplomacy) to secure trade benefits, Japan-US friendship and Chinese interests.
World War I and Export-led Boom : World War I and Export-led Boom Export-led demand pushed up prices, profits and production—artificial acceleration of import substitution, esp. in machinery and chemicals.
BoP crisis (gold reserve loss) was solved.
Narikin emerged (Suzuki, Ship Narikins). They spent money on big villas, parties, women. Production Trade (bil yen) Ship Narikin Industrial production Domestic Supply Ratio PP.100-02
Slide5 : 1920s
WW1 Bubble burst and recessionary period begins
Machinery, chemical, heavy industries expands
Electrification (hydraulic power generation) rises WW1 Real GNE Growth (5-year moving average) Estimate by Ohkawa, Takamatsu, Yamamoto
Slide6 : Source: S.J.Bytheway (2005), pp.166-169 Major FDI Firms in 1910s-30s
Slide7 : Source: S.J.Bytheway (2005), pp.166-169 Major FDI Firms in 1910s-30s (contd.) Compared with Meiji Period,
The number of US FDI increases.
FDI in automobile, electrical, machinery.
Zaibatsu plays key role in FDI partnership or subsequent take-over.
At the same time, Japan’s outward FDI begins:
FDI to China: textiles (Shanghai, Qingdao), steel (Anshan)
FDI to Korea: heavy chemical industries
New Zaibatsu (Konzern) : New Zaibatsu (Konzern) Heavy & chemical industries (not banks, textiles, trade)
Backed by political connection and support
Active investment in Korea and Manchuria (NE China) PP.104-5
Slide9 : Pure dictatorship Full democracy Democratic institution (Form) Political competition Constitution Laws Parliament Election Court Party Reform vs conservatism, big vs small government, other policy debates (Content)
Slide10 : Pure dictatorship Full democracy Democratic institution (Form) Political competition Constitution Laws Parliament Election Court Party Reform vs conservatism, big vs small government, other policy debates Edo Meiji Taisho Fascism Constitution Parliament Democracy movement, Party cabinet Democratization New constitution Showa2 War 1937 1945-51 LDP dominance Lack of policy debate Male suffrage 1960 2007 US rule Defeat Showa1 1889 1925 1931 Military rises 1937-45 (Content) Political fights
Slide11 : Early Meiji 1881 1889/90 WW1/Taisho External military
campaign Top-down industrial- ization Top-down democrat-
ization Bottom-up democrat- ization Okubo Kuroda Okuma Saigo Former samurais X 1877 Kido Inoue Itagaki Itagaki Ueki (Liberty Party) Nakae Okuma Fukuzawa Expelled Ito Fiscal activism & war Constitution Parliament Fiscal crisis Opposition Government Taisho Democracy Ito Yamagata Seiyukai Party Export-led boom solves fiscal crisis Spending! Conservatives Military Japan-China War 1894-95 Japan-Russia War 1904-05 Colonize Korea 1910 Big spenders Hoshi Tax cuts!
Taisho Democracy – Political Development : Taisho Democracy – Political Development Anti-party conservatists genro, military, bureaucrats Seiyukai Party Big spending for securing rural votes Cooperation & fights Alternative governments Yamagata, Katsura Saionji, Hara Popular demonstration surrounding Parliament
to protect constitution Army’s misuse of power, 1913 Navy’s bribery scandal, 1914 Opposed to universal suffrage Rice Riots, 1918 Kenseikai (Minsei Party) Belt-tightening, workers rights 1913 1914 Pro-Constitution 3-Party Cabinet Rikken Seiyukai Party X Reform Club 1924 -Universal suffrage, 1925 -Army budget cuts -Shidehara Diplomacy
Democracy Theory under Meiji Constitution : Democracy Theory under Meiji Constitution Article 4—The Emperor is the head of the Empire, combining in Himself the rights of sovereignty, and exercises them, according to the provisions of the present Constitution.
Article 55--The respective Ministers of State shall give their advice to the Emperor, and be responsible for it. PP.226-7 Emperor Army Navy Emperor decides Individual ministers Individual advice Emperor Cabinet PM Cabinet decides Collective advice & responsibility -Appointed by Genro?
-Party with largest parliament seats? (1) Can Emperor really make decisions or just follow advice? (2) Is party cabinet (“parliamentary system”) possible? ？ ？
Slide14 : Prof. Tatsukichi Minobe (1873-1948), Tokyo Univ.
-The state, as a legal entity, has the sovereignty. -The emperor is the highest organ of the state, and operates under Constitution (not unlimited power) (Article 55) -Cabinet must take collective responsibility Same political party -Imperial edicts must have Minister’s signature Cabinet’s power Prof. Sakuzo Yoshino (1878-1933), Tokyo Univ.
Democracy develops in 3 steps to achieve results: (1) Party cabinet where the largest party forms government (2) Universal suffrage, to expand voter base (3) Social policies, to directly improve people’s lives
Yoshino proposed minpon shugi民本主義 to promote democracy under Meiji Constitution where Emperor had sovereignty.
Other Movements in Taisho Democracy : Other Movements in Taisho Democracy Emergence of new middle mass (professionals, salaried workers)
Universal (male) election (1925)
Labor movement and May Day (1920)
Landless farmers’ riots and formation of farmers’ union (1922)
Women’s movement--Seitosha (Blue Stockings Society, 1912), New Women’s Society (1920)
Zenkoku Suiheisha (National Level Society, 1922) to fight discrimination against “outcast” people
Rise of socialism and Marxism Universal suffrage movement Voters/Population
Shidehara Diplomacy : Shidehara Diplomacy His policy was more moderate than before or after
Respect Washington Naval Disarmament Treaty (1921-22)
Maintain good relations with US and UK
No military intervention in China; secure Japan’s interest through diplomacy
Hamaguchi Cabinet signs London Naval Disarmament Treaty despite objection from military (1930)
Criticized as Coward Diplomacy
Fail to stop Manchurian Incident (1931) started by Kantogun (Japanese Army stationed in China) PP.106-9 Kijuro Shidehara, 1872-1951 Foreign Minister, 1924-27, 1929-31 Prime Minister 1945-46
Japan-US Relationship : Japan-US Relationship Largest trading partner: US share in Japan’s trade—export 44%, import 26% (in 1925)
In China--Japan asserts its “special interests” in China, US wants open door policy (esp. for bank loans)
Immigration Problem
1890s Japanese economic immigrants to US West Coast; Anti-Japanese movement begins
1907 Gentlemen’s Agreement to curb Japanese immigration
1913 Anti-Japanese legislations in California
1924 Ban on Japanese immigration
1942 Japanese Americans are sent to
concentration camps Manzanar Camp, California