cronqvist

Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties: 

Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties Lasse Cronqvist Institute of Political Science University of Marburg (Germany)

This presentation : 

This presentation This presentation will ... use QCA style analysis to find conditions of success of green parties in the 80s ... use a modification of QCA which allows the use of multi-valued conditions ... start with a few conditions and add further conditions after the study of contradicting configurations

Why Multi-Value QCA: 

Why Multi-Value QCA QCA uses dichotomized values Some data can only be dichotomized with a substancial loss of data + nominal data might be better operationalized with non-dichotomized conditions (e.g. G. Esping-Andersens „Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism“)

Example: 

Example

Example: 

Example

MVQCA: 

MVQCA The use of multi-value scales may result in configurations closer to original data and be used to reduce contradictions in the truth table But: Do not overdo: Using too many categories will „individualize“ the configurations Few minimisations possible

MVQCA: 

MVQCA MVQCA works exactly like QCA, except: 1. Use of set notation (A{0}, B{1}, C{2}, etc.) 2. Minimisation is only possible if all values combined with the shorter expression share the outcome value QCA: ab + Ab  b with A dichotomous MVQCA: A{0}B{0} + A{1}B{0} + A{2}B{0}  B{0} possible values for A: {0,1,2}

Success : 

Success Intention: Determination of conditions of success of Green Parties in the 80s So far: No coherent explanations on varying success of Green Parties But how to code „Success“?

Success (2) : 

Success (2) Some authors: 4% Threshold Above: Success, Below: No success But: If the electoral threshold is set at 5%, a party winning 4.9% of votes will not consider itself as „successful“ Here: Success if party was elected into parliament on a sustainable basis winning more than just one or two seats.

Success (3): 

Success (3) Success = 1 Success = 0

Possible Conditions: 

Possible Conditions Well known statements on the success of Green Parties New parties are disadvantaged in majority vote systems Postmaterialism

Possible Conditions (2): 

Possible Conditions (2) Elec = 1 Elec = 0 GNP = 2 GNP = 1 GNP = 0

Truth Table: 

Truth Table Sufficient causes for the outcome 0 are found, but: Not all cases with outcome 0 are explained No case with outcome 1 is explained

Further Conditions?: 

Further Conditions? Cleavage-Theory by Stein Rokkan. Political conflicts are found in every society, but special circumstances are needed to create a cleavage with influence on the party system Is there an ecological cleavage? If yes: Which ecological questions are strong enough to found this cleavage? Casestudies on Germany & Sweden: Maybe nuclear policy?

Nuclear Power Policy: 

Nuclear Power Policy

Population density: 

Population density

MVQCA Solutions: 

MVQCA Solutions Green parties were successful where necessary institutional (proportional elections) and socio-economical (medium or high GNP per capita) conditions were met and where conflicts over ecological issues were strong enough to found an ecological cleavage (active nuclear energy policy and/or high population density).

MVQCA Solutions: 

MVQCA Solutions 1. a majority vote system 2. low GNP / cap. 3. low or medium population density combined with the absence of nuclear power plants ... are all sufficient conditions for the absence of successful green parties

Remarks: 

Remarks Things to remember... Iceland: No successful Green Party, but: „Womens alliance“ France: EP elections

MVQCA  QCA: 

MVQCA  QCA Green parties were successful where necessery institutional (proportional elections) and socio-economical (medium or high GNP per capita) conditions were met and where conflicts over ecological issues were strong enough to found an ecological cleavage (active nuclear energy policy and/or high population density). Using this information we can convert the solution to a purely dichotomous QCA solution

Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties: 

Using (MV-)QCA to determine the conditions of success of Green Parties More Information: http://www.tosmana.org/oxford2006