Jeffrey S. Passel Pew Hispanic Center: Jeffrey S. Passel Pew Hispanic Center Latin American Migration to the United States:
Trends and Impacts “Expert Group Meeting on International Migration and”
Development in Latin America and the Caribbean”
CONAPO & UNFPA
Mexico City, DF — November 30–December 2, 2005
Immigration Today: Demographic Background -- Emergence of Latin sources -- How many? When did it start?
What Are They Like? -- Socioeconomic characteristics -- Legal status & Labor force
What Are Their Impacts? -- U.S. population & economy -- Origin & destination impactss Immigration Today
Demographic Trends: Demographic Trends Growing Numbers & Percents -- Mass migrations of ’70s
What Drives the Flow? -- Recent peak or downturn?
Emergence of New Centers -- Spread of unauthorized flows
-- Mexicans and others
Maturation of Some Flows? -- “Californization” spreading?
Slide4: U.S. Population (2004)
Births (annual)
Deaths
Legal Immigration
Undoc. Immigration
Emigration
Growth Rate
(Very Rapid) 293.7 million
4.1 million
- 2.5 million
700,000
750,000
-200,000
1.0 % U.S. Population -- Basics
21st Century: Latin Flows Emerge in’60s: * “Additional” immigrants are mostly unauthorized
and legalized aliens. Europe/Canada (Legal) Additional* All Other (Legal) 0.1 2.8 0.6 2.3 2.6 1.7 0.5 4.1 6.0 9.0 3.7 5.2 7 3.8 1.0 2.5 15+? 10 21st Century: Latin Flows Emerge in’60s
Rise, Peak, Decline, & ??: Rise, Peak, Decline, & ?? Annual Immigration (in 000s) Legal Permanent Residents
(LPRs) Unauthorized
Migrants Legal Temporary
Migrants Note: Unauthorized exceed LPRs after 1997.
Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --: Percent Approaches Historic Highs Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --
Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --: Percent Approaches Historic Highs Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing -- 20 Million
(2005)
Undocumented Clearly at New High -- Trend Uncertain: Undocumented Clearly at New High -- Trend Uncertain Millions of Illegal Aliens Living in the U.S.
Legal Status of Immigrants: Legal Permanent
Resident (LPR)
Aliens
(10.4 million) 29% Temporary Legal
Residents
(1.2 million) 3% Refugee Arrivals-- (Post-’80)
(2.5 million) 7% Unauthorized
Migrants
(10.3 million) 29% 35.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2004
(Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS) Legal Status of Immigrants Naturalized
Citizens (former LPRs)
(11.3 million) 32%
Most Undocumented Arrived Since 1990: Most Undocumented Arrived Since 1990 10.3 Million in March 2004 1995-1999
3.6 million -- 35%
(750,000 per year) 1990-94
2.2 million -- 21%
(450,000 per year) 1980s
1.3 million -- 14%
(130,000 per year) 2000-04
3.1 million – 30%
(700,000 per year)
Latin Americans & Asians Dominate Foreign-Born: Latin Americans & Asians Dominate Foreign-Born Other Latin America -- 23%
8.2 million Africa & Other -- 4%
1.5 million Europe & Canada -- 15%
5.5 million Asia -- 25%
9.0 million Mexico -- 32%
11.2 million 35.3 Million Foreign-Born in 2004
(Adjusted March 2004 CPS)
Undocumented Are Largely Latin American: Undocumented Are Largely Latin American 10.3 Million in March 2004 Other
Latin America -- 24%
2.5 million Africa & Other -- 4%
0.4 million Europe &
Canada -- 6%
0.6 million Asia -- 9%
1.0 million Mexico -- 57%
5.9 million
Rapid Growth of Mexicans Continues: Rapid Growth of Mexicans Continues Millions of Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born 31%
Central America similar to Mexico Caribbean Flows Largely Legal: Central America similar to Mexico Caribbean Flows Largely Legal Foreign-Born Population, 2004
and Percent Unauthorized
South American Flows Smaller Relative to Others: South American Flows Smaller Relative to Others Foreign-Born Population, 2004
and Percent Unauthorized
Immigrants Are Concentrated: Immigrants Are Concentrated 35.3 Million Foreign-Born
(Adjusted March 2004 CPS) Texas – 10%
(3.5 million) New York – 11%
(3.9 million) Florida – 9%
(3.2 million) Arizona – 3%
(970,000) New Jersey – 5%
(1.6 million) All Others – 31%
(11.0 million) California – 28%
(9.8 million) Illinois – 4%
(1.4 million)
Slide18: New Immigration Growth Centers
Unauthorized Concentrated, but Spreading: Unauthorized Concentrated, but Spreading California – 24%
2.4 million 10 Million for 2002-2004 Florida – 9%
850,000 Texas – 14%
1.4 million New York – 7%
650,000 Arizona* – 5%
450,000-500,000 Illinois – 4%
400,000 New Jersey – 4%
350,000 North Carolina* – 3%
300,000 All Others – 32%
3.1 million
Slide20: Size of Undocumented Population, 2003-04
Major Redistribution Away From Big 6 Settlement States: Major Redistribution Away From Big 6 Settlement States Percent of Total Undocumented Immigrant Population 39% --
3.9 Million 12% --
400,000
Slide22: New Growth --> High % Undocumented Note: Revision based on
adjusted March 2004 CPS .
Annual Arrivals of Unauthorized Exceed Legals Since ~1995: Annual Arrivals of Unauthorized Exceed Legals Since ~1995 Average Annual Arrivals of 2004 Population by Legal Status in 2004
Mexicans Diversify, Too: Mexicans Diversify, Too Percent of U.S. Mexicans 58% -- 2.5 million 38% -- 4.1 million 29% -- 3.1 million 12% -- 0.5 million
Slide25: Many Mexicans/Salvadorans in US Percent of County and Country’s
Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of
“Central American”
Population in U.S. —
9% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
Slide26: Larger Share of West Indians in US Percent of County and Country’s
Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of
“Caribbean”
Population in U.S. —
15% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
Slide27: Only Guyana Sends Large Share Percent of County and Country’s
Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of
“South American`”
Population in U.S. —
1% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.
Characteristics of Unauthorized: Characteristics of Unauthorized Who Are They? -- Mainly in Families -- Relatively Young -- Almost All Work
What Are They Like? -- Low Education -- Jobs reflect Skills -- Low Education -- Lack of Insurance
Unauthorized Families Mixed Composition: Unauthorized Families Mixed Composition 13.9 million in
Unauthorized Families (2004) Unauthorized
Children
1.6 million
14% of all
unauthorized Other Adults
400,000 U.S. Citizen
Children
3.1 million
67% of kids Adult Women
3.9 million
44% of Adults Adult Men
4.9 million
56% of Adults
“Mixed Status” Families Common Among Unauthorized: “Mixed Status” Families Common Among Unauthorized 6.3 Million Unauthorized Families
(Estimated with March 2004 CPS) No Children
59%
3.7 million
families With
Non-Citizen
Children
10%
630,000 families With
US Citizen &
Non-Citizen Children
7% -- 460,000 families (“Mixed”) With
US Citizen Children
24%
1.5 million families
“Mixed” Solo Men
36%
2.3 million Solo Women
12% -- 740,000 Couples
9% -- 540,000 Other
3% -- 160,000
Children of Unauthorized Mostly in “Mixed Status” Families: Children of Unauthorized Mostly in “Mixed Status” Families 4.7 Million Children of Unauthorized
(Estimated with March 2004 CPS) US Citizen Children
with
Unauthorized Siblings
13% -- 620,000 children
“Mixed” Unauthorized Children Only
20%
920,000 children
Not “Mixed” Unauthorized Children
with
US Citizen Siblings
12%
580,000 children
“Mixed” US Citizen
Children
(Only)
55%
2.6 million children
“Mixed”
Slide32: Natives Education “Hourglass” & “Diamond” Less than High School
Graduate College Degree or Beyond Share of Each Group’s 25-64 Population, 2004 Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
Slide33: Natives Men more likely to work; Women less Males Females Labor Force Participation, Ages 18-64, 2004 Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations: Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations Service Occupations
33% – (15%) 6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004 Transportation &
Material Moving
8% – (6%) Management, Business, &
Professional 10% – (35%) Production,
Installation, &
Repair
16% – (10%) Construction & Extractive
17% – (6%) Farming, etc. 3% – (1%) Sales & Admin. Support
13% – (27%) Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” occupation group
is shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
Slide35: Overall Proportion
Of Workers Who Are
Unauthorized —
4.3% Most Concentrated Occupations Percent Unauthorized within Occupation Group, 2004 Farming Cleaning Construction Food Prep. Production Transport Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries: Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries Construction
17% – (7%) All Other
Industries
17% – (43%) Leisure & Hospitality
18% – (8%) Other Services
6% – (5%) Wholesale & Retail Trade
12% – (15%) Professional & Business Services 12% – (15%) Manufacturing
15% – (12%) 6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004 Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” industry group
is shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
Slide37: Most Concentrated Industries Percent Unauthorized within Industry, 2004 Overall Proportion
Of Workers Who Are
Unauthorized —
4.3% Private HH’s Hotels Food Mfg. Admin. Farming Food Service Textiles Construction Mfg. Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS
Incomes Increase with Time in US: Incomes Increase with Time in US Natives $47,800 Average Family Income, 2003
Immigrant Families Larger: Immigrant Families Larger Natives 1.98 Average Family Size, 2004
Income per Person Suffers: Income per Person Suffers Average Family Income per Person, 2003
Immigration Drives Growth: Immigration Drives Growth Population in millions
Immigration Critical for Hispanics: Immigration Critical for Hispanics Population in millions
Projected Role of Immigrants in Work Force: Projected Role of Immigrants in Work Force Immigration Drives Growth
Education Upgrading of LF -- Better Education -- “Aging Out” of Low Education
Aging Population, 2010-2030
Immigrants Help Social Security -- Relatively Small Impact -- Offsets from More Children
Labor Force Grows in Future Driven by Immigration (esp. after 2015): Labor Force Grows in Future Driven by Immigration (esp. after 2015) Labor Force (in millions)
Slide45: Low Education LF Shrinks -- College Degree LF Explodes Less than High School
Graduate College Degree or Beyond Labor Force by Education (in millions) Percent Foreign-Born of Labor Force
Migration Flows to U.S.: Large, Increasing Flows Overall
Increases Due to Unauthorized
Responsive to Origin & Destination -- Job Availability in U.S. -- Conditions in Mexico & Elsewhere
New Destinations Emerge
Decrease from Peak in Response to Economic Decline Migration Flows to U.S.
Impact of New Programs: Large Numbers (10+ million)
Scattered Around Country
Mixed, Young Families
Significant “Investments”
Potential Economic Mobility
Continued High Demand (?)
Opening Up to New Flows (?) Impact of New Programs
For more information, contact:: For more information, contact: Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.
Pew Hispanic Center
Pew Research Center
1615 L St., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 (202) 419-3625 jpassel@pewhispanic.org
www.pewhispanic.org