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Jeffrey S. PasselPew Hispanic Center: 

Jeffrey S. Passel Pew Hispanic Center Latin American Migration to the United States: Trends and Impacts “Expert Group Meeting on International Migration and” Development in Latin America and the Caribbean” CONAPO & UNFPA Mexico City, DF — November 30–December 2, 2005

Immigration Today: 

Demographic Background -- Emergence of Latin sources -- How many? When did it start? What Are They Like? -- Socioeconomic characteristics -- Legal status & Labor force What Are Their Impacts? -- U.S. population & economy -- Origin & destination impactss Immigration Today

Demographic Trends: 

Demographic Trends Growing Numbers & Percents -- Mass migrations of ’70s What Drives the Flow? -- Recent peak or downturn? Emergence of New Centers -- Spread of unauthorized flows -- Mexicans and others Maturation of Some Flows? -- “Californization” spreading?

Slide4: 

U.S. Population (2004) Births (annual) Deaths Legal Immigration Undoc. Immigration Emigration Growth Rate (Very Rapid) 293.7 million 4.1 million - 2.5 million 700,000 750,000 -200,000 1.0 % U.S. Population -- Basics

21st Century:Latin Flows Emerge in’60s: 

* “Additional” immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens. Europe/Canada (Legal) Additional* All Other (Legal) 0.1 2.8 0.6 2.3 2.6 1.7 0.5 4.1 6.0 9.0 3.7 5.2 7 3.8 1.0 2.5 15+? 10 21st Century: Latin Flows Emerge in’60s

Rise, Peak, Decline, & ??: 

Rise, Peak, Decline, & ?? Annual Immigration (in 000s) Legal Permanent Residents (LPRs) Unauthorized Migrants Legal Temporary Migrants Note: Unauthorized exceed LPRs after 1997.

Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --: 

Percent Approaches Historic Highs Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --

Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --: 

Percent Approaches Historic Highs Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing -- 20 Million (2005)

Undocumented Clearly atNew High -- Trend Uncertain: 

Undocumented Clearly at New High -- Trend Uncertain Millions of Illegal Aliens Living in the U.S.

Legal Status of Immigrants: 

Legal Permanent Resident (LPR) Aliens (10.4 million) 29% Temporary Legal Residents (1.2 million) 3% Refugee Arrivals-- (Post-’80) (2.5 million) 7% Unauthorized Migrants (10.3 million) 29% 35.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2004 (Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS) Legal Status of Immigrants Naturalized Citizens (former LPRs) (11.3 million) 32%

Most UndocumentedArrived Since 1990: 

Most Undocumented Arrived Since 1990 10.3 Million in March 2004 1995-1999 3.6 million -- 35% (750,000 per year) 1990-94 2.2 million -- 21% (450,000 per year) 1980s 1.3 million -- 14% (130,000 per year) 2000-04 3.1 million – 30% (700,000 per year)

Latin Americans & AsiansDominate Foreign-Born: 

Latin Americans & Asians Dominate Foreign-Born Other Latin America -- 23% 8.2 million Africa & Other -- 4% 1.5 million Europe & Canada -- 15% 5.5 million Asia -- 25% 9.0 million Mexico -- 32% 11.2 million 35.3 Million Foreign-Born in 2004 (Adjusted March 2004 CPS)

Undocumented AreLargely Latin American: 

Undocumented Are Largely Latin American 10.3 Million in March 2004 Other Latin America -- 24% 2.5 million Africa & Other -- 4% 0.4 million Europe & Canada -- 6% 0.6 million Asia -- 9% 1.0 million Mexico -- 57% 5.9 million

Rapid Growth of Mexicans Continues: 

Rapid Growth of Mexicans Continues Millions of Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born 31%

Central America similar to MexicoCaribbean Flows Largely Legal: 

Central America similar to Mexico Caribbean Flows Largely Legal Foreign-Born Population, 2004 and Percent Unauthorized

South American Flows SmallerRelative to Others: 

South American Flows Smaller Relative to Others Foreign-Born Population, 2004 and Percent Unauthorized

Immigrants Are Concentrated: 

Immigrants Are Concentrated 35.3 Million Foreign-Born (Adjusted March 2004 CPS) Texas – 10% (3.5 million) New York – 11% (3.9 million) Florida – 9% (3.2 million) Arizona – 3% (970,000) New Jersey – 5% (1.6 million) All Others – 31% (11.0 million) California – 28% (9.8 million) Illinois – 4% (1.4 million)

Slide18: 

New Immigration Growth Centers

Unauthorized Concentrated,but Spreading: 

Unauthorized Concentrated, but Spreading California – 24% 2.4 million 10 Million for 2002-2004 Florida – 9% 850,000 Texas – 14% 1.4 million New York – 7% 650,000 Arizona* – 5% 450,000-500,000 Illinois – 4% 400,000 New Jersey – 4% 350,000 North Carolina* – 3% 300,000 All Others – 32% 3.1 million

Slide20: 

Size of Undocumented Population, 2003-04

Major Redistribution Away FromBig 6 Settlement States: 

Major Redistribution Away From Big 6 Settlement States Percent of Total Undocumented Immigrant Population 39% -- 3.9 Million 12% -- 400,000

Slide22: 

New Growth --> High % Undocumented Note: Revision based on adjusted March 2004 CPS .

Annual Arrivals of UnauthorizedExceed Legals Since ~1995: 

Annual Arrivals of Unauthorized Exceed Legals Since ~1995 Average Annual Arrivals of 2004 Population by Legal Status in 2004

Mexicans Diversify, Too: 

Mexicans Diversify, Too Percent of U.S. Mexicans 58% -- 2.5 million 38% -- 4.1 million 29% -- 3.1 million 12% -- 0.5 million

Slide25: 

Many Mexicans/Salvadorans in US Percent of County and Country’s Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of “Central American” Population in U.S. — 9% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.

Slide26: 

Larger Share of West Indians in US Percent of County and Country’s Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of “Caribbean” Population in U.S. — 15% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.

Slide27: 

Only Guyana Sends Large Share Percent of County and Country’s Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004 Share of “South American`” Population in U.S. — 1% Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.

Characteristics of Unauthorized: 

Characteristics of Unauthorized Who Are They? -- Mainly in Families -- Relatively Young -- Almost All Work What Are They Like? -- Low Education -- Jobs reflect Skills -- Low Education -- Lack of Insurance

Unauthorized FamiliesMixed Composition: 

Unauthorized Families Mixed Composition 13.9 million in Unauthorized Families (2004) Unauthorized Children 1.6 million 14% of all unauthorized Other Adults 400,000 U.S. Citizen Children 3.1 million 67% of kids Adult Women 3.9 million 44% of Adults Adult Men 4.9 million 56% of Adults

“Mixed Status” Families Common Among Unauthorized: 

“Mixed Status” Families Common Among Unauthorized 6.3 Million Unauthorized Families (Estimated with March 2004 CPS) No Children 59% 3.7 million families With Non-Citizen Children 10% 630,000 families With US Citizen & Non-Citizen Children 7% -- 460,000 families (“Mixed”) With US Citizen Children 24% 1.5 million families “Mixed” Solo Men 36% 2.3 million Solo Women 12% -- 740,000 Couples 9% -- 540,000 Other 3% -- 160,000

Children of Unauthorized Mostly in “Mixed Status” Families: 

Children of Unauthorized Mostly in “Mixed Status” Families 4.7 Million Children of Unauthorized (Estimated with March 2004 CPS) US Citizen Children with Unauthorized Siblings 13% -- 620,000 children “Mixed” Unauthorized Children Only 20% 920,000 children Not “Mixed” Unauthorized Children with US Citizen Siblings 12% 580,000 children “Mixed” US Citizen Children (Only) 55% 2.6 million children “Mixed”

Slide32: 

Natives Education “Hourglass” & “Diamond” Less than High School Graduate College Degree or Beyond Share of Each Group’s 25-64 Population, 2004 Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

Slide33: 

Natives Men more likely to work; Women less Males Females Labor Force Participation, Ages 18-64, 2004 Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations: 

Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations Service Occupations 33% – (15%) 6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004 Transportation & Material Moving 8% – (6%) Management, Business, & Professional 10% – (35%) Production, Installation, & Repair 16% – (10%) Construction & Extractive 17% – (6%) Farming, etc. 3% – (1%) Sales & Admin. Support 13% – (27%) Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” occupation group is shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

Slide35: 

Overall Proportion Of Workers Who Are Unauthorized — 4.3% Most Concentrated Occupations Percent Unauthorized within Occupation Group, 2004 Farming Cleaning Construction Food Prep. Production Transport Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries: 

Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries Construction 17% – (7%) All Other Industries 17% – (43%) Leisure & Hospitality 18% – (8%) Other Services 6% – (5%) Wholesale & Retail Trade 12% – (15%) Professional & Business Services 12% – (15%) Manufacturing 15% – (12%) 6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004 Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” industry group is shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

Slide37: 

Most Concentrated Industries Percent Unauthorized within Industry, 2004 Overall Proportion Of Workers Who Are Unauthorized — 4.3% Private HH’s Hotels Food Mfg. Admin. Farming Food Service Textiles Construction Mfg. Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

Incomes Increase with Time in US: 

Incomes Increase with Time in US Natives $47,800 Average Family Income, 2003

Immigrant Families Larger: 

Immigrant Families Larger Natives 1.98 Average Family Size, 2004

Income per Person Suffers: 

Income per Person Suffers Average Family Income per Person, 2003

Immigration Drives Growth: 

Immigration Drives Growth Population in millions

Immigration Critical for Hispanics: 

Immigration Critical for Hispanics Population in millions

Projected Role ofImmigrants in Work Force: 

Projected Role of Immigrants in Work Force Immigration Drives Growth Education Upgrading of LF -- Better Education -- “Aging Out” of Low Education Aging Population, 2010-2030 Immigrants Help Social Security -- Relatively Small Impact -- Offsets from More Children

Labor Force Grows in FutureDriven by Immigration (esp. after 2015): 

Labor Force Grows in Future Driven by Immigration (esp. after 2015) Labor Force (in millions)

Slide45: 

Low Education LF Shrinks -- College Degree LF Explodes Less than High School Graduate College Degree or Beyond Labor Force by Education (in millions) Percent Foreign-Born of Labor Force

Migration Flows to U.S.: 

Large, Increasing Flows Overall Increases Due to Unauthorized Responsive to Origin & Destination -- Job Availability in U.S. -- Conditions in Mexico & Elsewhere New Destinations Emerge Decrease from Peak in Response to Economic Decline Migration Flows to U.S.

Impact of New Programs: 

Large Numbers (10+ million) Scattered Around Country Mixed, Young Families Significant “Investments” Potential Economic Mobility Continued High Demand (?) Opening Up to New Flows (?) Impact of New Programs

For more information,contact:: 

For more information, contact: Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D. Pew Hispanic Center Pew Research Center 1615 L St., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 (202) 419-3625 jpassel@pewhispanic.org www.pewhispanic.org