biddersbrief

Bidder’s BriefingforDynamic Air & SpaceExecution and Assessment(DASEA)Critical Experiment22 Sep 04 : Bidder’s Briefing for Dynamic Air & Space Execution and Assessment (DASEA) Critical Experiment 22 Sep 04 Joe Caroli AFRL/IFSF carolij@rl.af.mil (315) 330-4205


Administrative : Administrative Introduction to DASEA Team Security Policy Breaks and Rest Rooms Meeting ROEs Local Restaurants


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DASEA Bidder’s Brief Agenda : DASEA Bidder’s Brief Agenda DASEA Overview, Vision, Requirements and Warfighter Perspective 0900 – 0950 DASEA CE Overview Joe Caroli/AFRL-IF 0950 – 1020 Effects Based Dynamic Tasking Process Buster McCrabb/DMM Ventures 1020 – 1050 AOC Block Requirements Related to DASEA Richard White/AFC2ISRC 1050 – 1110 Break 1110 – 1140 8th Air Force Perspective on Assessment Major Stewart Greathouse/608 CPS 1145 – 1315 Lunch Related Program Briefs 1315 – 1345 T-BONE Lt Col James Whitlow/C2BL 1315 – 1345 JAGUAR Carl DeFranco/AFRL-IF 1345 – 1400 Break 1400 – 1430 Human Effectiveness in the AOC Lt Cindy Gardner/AFRL-HE 1430 – 1500 PANACIA Brian Romano/AFRL-IF 1500 – 1515 Wrap-Up Joe Caroli/AFRL-IF Acronyms: DASEA – Dynamic Air and Space Execution and Assessment T-BONE – Theater Battle Operations Net-Centric Environment JAGUAR – Joint Air-Ground operations: Unified Adaptive Replanning PANACIA – Predictive Awareness & Net-Centric Analysis for Collaborative Intel Assessment


DASEA Critical Experiment : DASEA Critical Experiment Objective: Design, develop and demonstrate a capability for continuous effects based assessment in a dynamic tasking environment Effects Based Assessment capability Effects driven dynamic tasking/streaming ATO capability Goal is to leverage other developments


Problem/Operational Requirements : Problem/Operational Requirements The AOC lacks the capability to conduct dynamic planning and adjustment of execution to achieve JFC/JFACC desired effects (AOC ORD Oct 03) Traditional combat assessment does not support effects based operations Combat assessment practices are not adaptable to the complexity of a dynamic and evolving hyper-ops-tempo battlespace (ACC Effects Based Assessment WP Mar 04) AOC WS Future Capabilities (AOC IPT, May 04) 10.2 Capability to rapidly and accurately assess targeting effects and aggregates against COAs to continuously validate and adjust strategy 10.2 Enable parallel Strat/GAT/MAAP processes 10.2 Automated capability to track assessment 10.4 Applied effects based operations


Dynamic Tasking : Dynamic Tasking Today’s air tasking cycle Batch-oriented ATO Mission data Execution orders 24 Hr Execution Time To counter emerging threats or exploit emerging opportunities, commander’s require the means to react very quickly Not necessarily a shorter cycle More responsive More continuous Target queues dynamically executed as they are built Future executing orders Dynamic Air/Space Execution Order (DAEO) ? Effects Driven Streaming ATO ?


Effects-Based Dynamic Tasking ProcessHigh Level View : Effects-Based Dynamic Tasking Process High Level View Commander’s Intent Actions Assess Continuous Highly responsive to changes in: Guidance Resources Situation AOC Wings Squadrons Collaboration Dynamic Tasking Enablers Parallel & Concurrent Methods PBA ISR PF2T2EA EBO Technology Advances Decision Support Tools NCW DOTMLPF Doctrine Organization Training Material Leadership Personnel Facilities uncertainty analysis fusion Temporal Reasoning Case Based Reasoning JBI UAVs Semantic Web Command & Control Constellation/ Net Centric Wizards and agents


Effects Driven Streaming ATO : Effects Driven Streaming ATO Migrate from target driven ATO to an effects-driven ATO model Different classes of “effect chains” are available for various effect types Properties of interest can be assesses for the effect chains (timeliness, accuracy, collateral damage, vulnerability, etc.) Asset allocation is planned so that multiple effect chain types are always available Assets are allocated dynamically based on availability A consistent framework and capability for effects based assessment needs to be available


Effects Driven Streaming ATO : Effects Driven Streaming ATO AOC JFACC is notified That a new target appears Several instantiations of effect chains to address target(s) attributes associated w/ each effect chain Assessment Select effect chain package that best fits the situation Effect Type Destroy Scud Destroy Scud Destroy Scud Destroy Scud


Effects Based Assessment : Effects Based Assessment “An effects based assessment process that meets the needs of warfighter commanders must be created to close the loop on effects based operations” Source: ACC Effects Based Assessment White Paper Critical AF Initiative aimed at developing a more effective assessment architecture AF/XO leads the assessment task force ACC Effects-based assessment vision / flight plan DOTMLPF focus AFRL’s Challenge: technology for continuous effects based assessment in a dynamic environment


Assessment Today : Assessment Today References: JP 3-60 Joint Doctrine for Targeting JP 3-30 Command and Control for Joint Air Operations AFOTTP 2-3.2 Air and Space Operations Center ACC White Paper and ACC/XPS Briefing “Effects-Based Assessment: Closing the Loop” Joint Doctrine has only Combat Assessment Comprehensive assessment architecture remains elusive Assessment cells concerned more with assessing actions rather than effects Communication among federated partners not as effective as it should be AFOTTP 2-3.2 Jun 04 Draft goes beyond Joint Doc definition of combat assessment and defines: Campaign Assessment Operational Assessment Combat Assessment …..with a focus on effects!


Air Combat CommandProposed Assessment Construct : Air Combat Command Proposed Assessment Construct Source: ACC White Paper “Effects Based Assessment”


An Effects Based Assessment Process : An Effects Based Assessment Process


An Effects Based Assessment Process : An Effects Based Assessment Process Continuous Review of Enemy System-of-Systems Reaction to Blue Actions


System-of-System Analysis:The Theme Connecting EBA and DT : System-of-System Analysis: The Theme Connecting EBA and DT Enemy As A System For Effects Based Assessment SoSA defines Indirect and cascading effects required for EB Assessment planning For Dynamic Tasking SoSA defines the flow from the COA down to the target. Dynamic adjustments of the SoSA based on EBA are required to generate the next time appropriate target SoSA drives both Campaign Planning and Assessment Planning


Perceived Capabilities of an Effects Based Assessment Tool : Perceived Capabilities of an Effects Based Assessment Tool Near real time / dynamic assessment Updates based on observed actions Roll-up of fused evidence Combined quantitative and qualitative decision aids Quantitative example: probabilistic assessment Qualitative example: decision matrix Multi-level / joint and collaborative Applicable to all levels of war (components, JFC, etc) Roll-up of assessments from engagement to strategic level Shared workspaces Capability to see plan as it evolves Source: AOC Requirements Working Group – Strategy Sub-group Workshop, Pensacola FL 8/04


Perceived Capabilities of an Effects Based Assessment Tool (Cont.) : Assessment planning capability Workflow manager Checklists Assessment templates Capability to assess multiple COAs M2M Interoperation w/ relevant applications and data Strategy tools, TBMCS apps, etc MSREPS, DISUMS, evidence, etc. Capability to manipulate data for assessment Filter, graph, sort, visualize, etc. Perceived Capabilities of an Effects Based Assessment Tool (Cont.) Source: AOC Requirements Working Group – Strategy Sub-group Workshop, Pensacola FL 8/04


Challenges of Predicting, Observing and Assessing Effects : Challenges of Predicting, Observing and Assessing Effects Effects Assessment Challenges Available evidence Fidelity of evidence Tracing high order effects back to their original causes Assessment in a dynamic environment Effects Prediction Challenges Predicting cause-and-effect linkages (especially behavioral results of physical actions) Assigning probability values to cause-effect relationships Maintaining consistency through prediction process Validity of lessons learned data Observation Challenges Maintaining SA on thousands of targets Observing other than 1st order physical effects Appropriate sensor availability Human interpretation of observations


Related Projects : Related Projects JAGUAR is focused on rapid ATO development and dynamic re-tasking T-BONE’s objective is to replace the Theater Air Planner (TAP) and improve database aspects PANACIA/FEBO will build fusion capabilities required for assessment Human Effectiveness in the AOC will develop intuitive front ends with optimal visualization DASEA’s effects-driven streaming ATO focus and effects based assessment approach can be used for the critical assessment piece


DASEA Critical ExperimentApproach : DASEA Critical Experiment Approach Conduct Warfighter Analysis Workshops Architecture and operational concept developments Maintain warfighter user’s group throughout program Develop a real-time/dynamic effects based assessment prototype Within an effects driven streaming ATO environment Taxonomy of indicators and MOPs, MOEs, SIs for EBA Spiral development approach focused on warfighter requirements Demonstration and experimentation participation Closely couple with JAGUAR, T-Bone, PANACIA, and HE in the AOC Address Net Centricity


DASEA Critical ExperimentPlanned Acquisition Strategy (FY05-07) : DASEA Critical Experiment Planned Acquisition Strategy (FY05-07) 20 Aug 04 - Fed Biz Ops Announcement Posted with Read File 22 Sep 04 – Bidder’s Brief 22 Oct 04 - Initial White Papers Due Mid Nov 04 - Initial Proposals Due Feb/Mar 05 – Anticipated Contract Kick-Offs


Slide23 : Program Milestones Design, develop and demonstrate the capability for: - Dynamic Tasking - Effects Based Assessment Technology Benefits to the War Fighter Description Dynamic Air & Space Execution and Assessment (DASEA) CE AOC Strategy Division - Provide Operational Assessment Team the capability to conduct an effects based approach to operational assessment - Benefit: Ability to assess results of operations in light of attainment of commander’s desired effects AOC Combat Plans and ISR Divisions - Capability to produce dynamic attack and ISR execution orders - Benefit: Increased responsiveness to changes in guidance, resources and situation - Benefit: Enables dynamic decision making & continuous assessment - Benefit: Early identification of resource bottlenecks & critical paths As of June 04 Develop ontology, exploit semantic web technologies Methods for reasoning under uncertainty (e.g. DBNs) Pub/Sub information management and intelligent agents Constraint-based advisable planners & scheduling algorithms Exploit Multi-INT fusion for effects-based assessment Case-based reasoning and templates w/ wizards Collaboration and visualization 05 06 07 TRL-6 Sep 07 Dynamic Tasking Capability Develop Operational & Technical Concept (OV Archs.) FY Streaming ATO Prototype Spiral SW Prototypes/Demos Test/Demonstrate/Experiment JEFX06 Effects Based Assessment Capability Develop Operational & Technical Concept (OV Archs.) Near-Real Time Operational Assessment Prototype Spiral SW Prototypes/Demos Test/Demonstrate/Experiment JEFX06 A more responsive, highly iterative and dynamic ATO cycle Fusion SIGINT ELINT HUNIT COMINT PBA: IPB+ISR+TSA Funding 1.0 2.25 2.25 FOUO FOUO


DASEA Bidder’s Brief Agenda : DASEA Bidder’s Brief Agenda DASEA Overview, Vision, Requirements and Warfighter Perspective 0900 – 0950 DASEA CE Overview Joe Caroli/AFRL-IF 0950 – 1020 Effects Based Dynamic Tasking Process Buster McCrabb/DMM Ventures 1020 – 1050 AOC Block Requirements Related to DASEA Richard White/AFC2ISRC 1050 – 1110 Break 1110 – 1140 8th Air Force Perspective on Assessment Major Stewart Greathouse/608 CPS 1145 – 1315 Lunch Related Program Briefs 1315 – 1345 T-BONE Lt Col James Whitlow/C2BL 1315 – 1345 JAGUAR Carl DeFranco/AFRL-IF 1345 – 1400 Break 1400 – 1430 Human Effectiveness in the AOC Lt Cindy Gardner/AFRL-HE 1430 – 1500 PANACIA Brian Romano/AFRL-IF 1500 – 1515 Wrap-Up Joe Caroli/AFRL-IF Acronyms: DASEA – Dynamic Air and Space Execution and Assessment T-BONE – Theater Battle Operations Net-Centric Environment JAGUAR – Joint Air-Ground operations: Unified Adaptive Replanning PANACIA – Predictive Awareness & Net-Centric Analysis for Collaborative Intel Assessment


Wrap-Up : Wrap-Up


Take Away Thoughts:White Paper Focus : Take Away Thoughts: White Paper Focus Looking for Innovation!! Strongly Encourage: Teaming Interoperation w/ other initiatives presented DASEA is not an integration effort Operational focus embedded in efforts Focus Areas for Efforts Effects based assessment tool !! Streaming ATO concept demonstration EBA/streaming ATO combined SoSA applications to EBA and DT Taxonomy of SIs, MOEs, MOPs for assessment


The End! : The End! Questions? Thank You!!