david ellwood

From Research to Social Policy and Back Again:Translating Scholarship into Practice Through the Starry Eyes of a Sometimes Scarred Veteran: 

From Research to Social Policy and Back Again: Translating Scholarship into Practice Through the Starry Eyes of a Sometimes Scarred Veteran David T. Ellwood Harvard University

Searching for Success: 

Searching for Success Contrasting Cultures—Politics/Policymaking versus Scholarship Three Critical Research Findings That Influenced Policy What Were the Findings? How and Why Did They Influence Research? Limitations: Misuse, Overuse, and Unintended Policy Implications Connecting the Next Generation of Research and Policy

Political Policymaking Vs. Research: 

Political Policymaking Vs. Research Democracy as Ideology Truth NOT Ideology Political Allies/Constituencies Independence/Conflict of Interest Success is Policy Change Success is The Compelling Finding/Model Time and Timing is Everything Reflection Not Timeliness is a Virtue Crafting Compromise Maintaining Principle The Devil is in the Details Mind-numbing Details

Three Research Ideas For Social Policy: 

Three Research Ideas For Social Policy Duration and Dynamics—Reframing the Problem Randomized Control Welfare-to-Work Experiments—Evaluating Programs Incentives and Work—Understanding and Influencing Behavior

Durations and Dynamics: 

Durations and Dynamics Cross-sectional Questions: Who is poor? Who is receiving aid? How serious is the hardship? Longitudinal Questions: How long are people poor? How long do they receive aid? What leads people into and out of need? The Answers are More Complicated than One Might Think

Distribution of Time in Spell and Total Time for On Public Assistance Among Single Parents in the U.S.: 

Distribution of Time in Spell and Total Time for On Public Assistance Among Single Parents in the U.S. Women Receiving Public Assistance At Any Point in Time Women Beginning a First Spell on Public Assistance Duration in Years 100.0 100.0 Total 56.6 14.1 10 + 19.5 11.4 6 – 9 15.4 25.6 3 – 5 8.5 48.9 0 – 2 Duration of Total Time Over Multiple Spells Duration of Total Time Over Multiple Spells Duration of Completed First Spell

Percentage Distribution of AFDC Endings By Type: 

Percentage Distribution of AFDC Endings By Type 12.1 Transfer Income Increased 6.7 Earnings of Others Increased 100.0 TOTAL 9.2 Unidentified 1.6 Family Moved 5.4 Family Became Smaller 25.0 Head’s Earnings Increased 10.8 No Longer had Eligible Child 29.4 Female household head became wife Percent of All Endings Ending Type

Policy Implications/Impacts: 

Policy Implications/Impacts Not Very Meaningful by Itself—How long is too long? But in World Where Independence and Empowerment Are Critical Issues: Dependency Potentially Real Concern Want Shorter Durations—Greater Avenues to Independence Make Work Pay Make People Work? Dynamic Research Leads to Dynamic (time dependent) Policy

Policy Misuse and Overreach?: 

Policy Misuse and Overreach? Simplistic Policies: One Size Fits All Time Limits Original Clinton plan “solves” this with a complicated “clock” “And then what?” Simply Cut People Off “Two years and you’re off” Clinton really meant two years but he signed something very different Predictions of 1 million more poor children What About Recessions? Individual versus systemic focus

Welfare-to-Work Experiments: 

Welfare-to-Work Experiments Implemented by States Using Special Waiver Authority Lots of Variety, But Plenty of Overlap Federal Government Required Randomized Controlled Experiments Very Serious Evaluators The biggest question: Should government first train people or push them right into work even if they have limited skills?

Slide11: 

National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies Earnings over Five Years, by Program Type: Program Group Members Earned More than Control Group Members Gain: $788 Treatment Group Control Group

Slide12: 

National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies Earnings over Five Years, by Program Type: Program Group Members Earned More than Control Group Members Gain: $788 Gain: $2,187

Slide13: 

National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies Earnings over Five Years, by Program Type: Program Group Members Earned More than Control Group Members Gain: $788 Gain: $1,538 Gain: $2,187

Policy Implications/Impacts: 

Policy Implications/Impacts Because of the Randomized Evaluations, and Consistent Findings Over Many Sites, Nearly Universal Social Science Acceptance of Finding Strong Emphasis on Work First Little Federal Support for Education and Training Work, Work, Work

Policy Misuse and Overreach: 

Policy Misuse and Overreach Does training fail or just disembodied short term training When experiments bleed into ideology and orthodoxy—Excessive certainty The end of experimentation

Slide16: 

National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies Earnings over Five Years, by Program Type: Program Group Members Earned More than Control Group Members Gain: $788 Gain: $1,538 Gain: $2,187 Gain: $5,150

Incentives and Work: 

Incentives and Work Vastly Expanded Support for Working Families Reduced Support to Families with Healthy Adults and No one in the Market Changing “Culture of Welfare Offices” and “Work First” Question: Do Incentives really matter?

Income and Benefits for a Single Mother with Two Children When Working and Not Working in 1988 and 1999: 

$7,051 $2,325 Net financial gain from working Children Under 16 No Yes Government Paid Health Insurance? (Medicaid) $15,018 $11,156 $8,832 Disposable Income 0 0 Child Care Support -2,000 0 Child Care Expense 1,231 0 Earned Income Tax Credit 2,310 2,850 8,832 TANF(AFDC) and Food Stamps -737 0 Payroll Taxes $9,813 0 Total Earnings Full Time Minimum Wage Not Working 1999 1988 Income and Benefits for a Single Mother with Two Children When Working and Not Working in 1988 and 1999

Policy Implications/Impact: 

Policy Implications/Impact Incentives Really Do Matter Make Work Pay People Far More Capable of Work Than Many Believed

Misuse/Overreach: 

Misuse/Overreach Was it really the economy? Exceptionally strong economy Do incentives work when jobs are not plentiful? Was it really the message? Very clear message about work Culture of welfare offices Would original Clinton plan have worked? The remaining 40% - the really hard cases

What Happened to Caseloads and Poverty?: 

What Happened to Caseloads and Poverty?

But….: 

But…. Many people are not getting Medicaid and food stamps they are eligible for. People who are not really able to work—the hard to serve. Evidence that some are worse off Time limits have not fully hit Pressures on welfare offices and workers—need for training and support of caseworkers Mostly converted the welfare poor to the working near poor AND THE ECONOMY!!

And Recession: The Big Unknown: 

And Recession: The Big Unknown Converted the Income Support System from Being Strongly Counter-Cyclical to One That Is More Pro-cyclical: Lose your job AND lose your benefits? Can A Work Based System Work During Recessions Without Some Form of Subsidized Jobs and With Minimal Added Federal Support During Recessions?

Lessons: 

Lessons Politics must provide the values—essence of democracy Scholarship and research can be of enormous help in determining the most important means

Strategies Connecting the Next Generation of Research and Policy: 

Strategies Connecting the Next Generation of Research and Policy Data—the life blood of research—Critical need for reform Evaluation—especially randomized controlled evaluation Connections between scholars and at risk populations Policy Centers/Policy Schools—Scholars who want to bridge worlds Intimate low key gatherings of policymakers and scholars—in the end it still is mostly about trust The scholar as policy entrepreneur—Risky and rewarding. Must be very open about values along with analysis and policy prescription.

Connecting Policy and Research…: 

Connecting Policy and Research… Is About Achieving Value Based Goals, Not Replacing Values With Science Research is Especially Helpful in Thinking About Means Research Must Examine Management and Administration Along With Behavior and Outcomes Research Should Bolster Rather Than Ignore Humanity and Identity