Our Changing Climate - Implications for Human Health : Our Changing Climate - Implications for Human Health Presentation to Canadian Medical Association
Vancouver, B.C.
August 19, 2007
G. McBean, Ph.D., FRSC
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Departments of Geography and Political Science
The University of Western Ontario
London, Ontario
Slide2 : Elie, Manitoba, June 22, 2007 Fortunately no one died
Other tornadoes in Canada have killed and injured people : Barrie 1985
12 deaths Pine Lake
2000 –12 deaths Other tornadoes in Canada have killed and injured people
Slide4 : The Eastern Canada Ice storm - 1998 30+ deaths
$7B damages
Months of impact Floods in Newfoundland,
Quebec, B.C., Alberta Hurricane Juan in NS Canada has had its major weather events
Slide5 : The tragedy of Hurricane Katrina 16 25 The number of intense
Hurricanes is increasing
Slide6 : 50 80 160 210 360 $80B US Hurricanes PER YEAR Earthquake Tsunami Floods, storms, droughts, …>75% Earthquakes, tsunamis -7% - horrific Global Impacts of
Climate-related
Hazards
Climate is the Statistics of Weather What does that mean for our Health? : Climate is the Statistics of Weather What does that mean for our Health? Is the climate changing?
Climate is the Statistics of Weather
Look at the past and present
Projecting the future
How will it change in the future?
How can we respond to a changing climate?
Collective actions to reduce the rate of change
Implications for Human Health and Response Strategies
Direct and indirect health impacts
Taking actions to reduce risk
Making informed decisions – individually and collectively – locally to globally
Is the climate changing?
Climate Science Assessment : Climate Science Assessment The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme
Three Working Groups
I. Science
II. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
III. Mitigation (Emission Reductions)
Science Assessments – 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007
Summaries for Policy Makers – www.ipcc.ch
WGI The Physical Science Basis : WGI The Physical Science Basis 0.06°C (1901-2000) 0.13 °C (1957-2006) Linear trends per decade Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.
Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
The Last 50 Years : The Last 50 Years And
winters are
warming
more than
summers. The Arctic is
warming most.
Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations from ice cores and modern data : Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations from ice cores and modern data Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Last 10,000 y Now 1957
Slide12 : Solar forcing
vs Total Human forcing Attribution of Climate Change –
is there a human cause? Comparison of drivers
of change Greenhouse gases
CO2, Methane,… Ozone Land-use change Aerosols Jet contrails Solar radiation Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Our Changing Climate - Implications for Human Health : Our Changing Climate - Implications for Human Health Is the climate changing?
YES !!! – and we are the main cause.
Projecting the future
How will it change in the future?
How can we respond to a changing climate?
Collective actions to reduce the rate of change
Implications for Human Health and Response Strategies
Direct and indirect health impacts
Taking actions to reduce risk
Making informed decisions – individually and collectively – locally to globally
Projecting the future
Future climate change : Future climate change warming °C per decade 0.13 0.2 0.8 0.15 Science
Uncertainty “Our” impact Need for Integrated/comprehensive
Adaptation and Emission Reduction
Strategies
Our Changing Climate - Implications for Human Health : Our Changing Climate - Implications for Human Health Is the climate changing?
YES !!! – and we are the main cause.
Projecting the future
Global climate change will accelerate and unless major actions are taken, the rate by end of century could be 5-6 times larger than the past few decades.
How can we respond to a changing climate?
Collective actions to reduce the rate of change
Implications for Human Health and Response Strategies
Direct and indirect health impacts
Taking actions to reduce risk
Making informed decisions – individually and collectively – locally to globally
How can we respond to a changing climate?
Collective actions to reduce the rate of change – in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change : Collective actions to reduce the rate of change – in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change signed by 155 nations (1992) – came into force in 1994
developed countries aim to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by year 2000
Article 2
“ … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
Canada’s Projected GHG Emissions : Canada’s Projected GHG Emissions Kyoto Target 571 Mt
6% below 1990 2010 Emissions 809 Mt 1990 Emissions 607 Mt Mt CO2 equivalent Business as Usual (1999)
699 Mt Projections 36 Mt +23% US +13% 23.5 G 26.4 150 Mt 2.5% of global emissions 240 Mt
Our Changing Climate - Implications for Human Health : Our Changing Climate - Implications for Human Health Is the climate changing?
YES !!! – and we are the main cause.
Projecting the future
Global climate change will accelerate and unless major actions are taken, the rate by end of century could be 5-6 times larger than the past few decades.
How can we respond to a changing climate?
Collective actions to reduce the rate of change
Implications for Human Health and Response Strategies
Direct and indirect health impacts
Taking actions to reduce risk
Making informed decisions – individually and collectively – locally to globally
Implications for Human Health and Response Strategies
Slide19 : Global Continental Regional City Local 100 years 1 year 1 month 1 hour 1 day 10 days 1 minute Climate Change El Nino Drought Watershed
floods Tornado Flash flood Snow Storm Urban Smog Ozone Depletion Sea ice/state Avalanches Fires Climate is the Statistics of Weather
and weather-related events occur on time scales of today to the next decades
Natural and human events interact on time scales of today to the next decades : Global Continental Regional City Local 100 years 1 year 1 month 1 hour 1 day 10 days 1 minute Climate Change El Nino Drought Watershed
floods Tornado Flash flood Snow Storm Urban Smog Ozone Depletion Natural and human events interact on time scales of today to the next decades Sea ice/state Avalanches Fires
Slide21 : More frequent hot days – virtually certain
Warm spells – very likely
The Human Toll of Heat Waves: Selected Examples from Europe in August 2003 : The Human Toll of Heat Waves: Selected Examples from Europe in August 2003 Country Deaths Other Details
France 14,802 40C Paris highest records began in 1873.
Germany 7,000 41C hottest since records began in 1901
Spain 4,230 High T + ozone > EU health-risk threshold.
Italy 4,175 Increase 9C previous year.
U. K. 2,045 First 38C recorded in London.
Netherlands 1,400 8C warmer than normal.
Portugal 1,316 > 40C throughout much of the country.
Belgium 150 highest T since records began in 1833. TOTAL OF ABOVE COUNTRIES 35,118 Record setting August 2003
every second summer – by mid-century
Slide23 : Projected Observed *A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum temperature above 30C 10 25 37 68 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Centre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique Actions:
Better design our structures and cities
more green space-shade-use of passive cooling
Heat alerts and responses – medical advice
Cleaner air
Slide24 : Winter Summer Changing Precipitation and Water Supplies Reduced summertime
precipitation
Slide25 : More heavy precipitation events – very likely
More drought areas – likely Intense tropical cyclone activity
increases – likely
Slide26 : Floods in Newfoundland, Quebec
B.C., Alberta Power Blackout Fires in BC Hurricane Juan in NS As the climate changes
More drought events
are Likely Water supply and Agricultural Systems
Need to re-think what and how we do it. Tornadoes –
Will climate change
increase the Risk?
Diseases Carried By Mosquitoes : Diseases Carried By Mosquitoes West Nile
Malaria
Dengue Fever
Yellow Fever
West Nile spreading across Canada Wet spring
Dry, hot summer
Climate change will
influence spread of WNV
And occurrences of other
Vector diseases
Slide28 : Primary
economic,
technological
social, cultural
drivers Environmental
change e.g., + UVrad
thermal stress Health impact Health impact Health impact Ecosystem
change +mosquitoes
+/- food Social, political
Economic
relations T, soils Jobs,poverty
consumption Socio-economic
Level of risk Livelihood
population An EcoHealth View Climate change will
Impact on all these
Relationships!!
Implications for Human Health and Response Strategies : Implications for Human Health and Response Strategies Taking actions to reduce risk
Making informed decisions – individually and collectively – locally to globally
The Role of the Medical Community
Collectively – as CMA and provincial bodies
Individually – with patients
Slide30 : Climate change is a long-term issue – need policies and instruments and analysis
Questions of intergenerational and international equity
Slide31 : The End Thank you for
your attention