Lubchenco SciencesSineQuaNon

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Science’s Sine Qua Non : Making Scientific Data & Knowledge Understandable, Relevant and Useful Jane Lubchenco CODATA – Beijing – 23 October 2006

Sine qua nonis Latin for “Without which, nothing”And refers to an essential condition or element.: 

Sine qua non is Latin for “Without which, nothing” And refers to an essential condition or element.

Science’s Sine Qua Non :  Making Scientific Data & Knowledge not only accessible but also Understandable, Relevant and Useful to Society: 

Science’s Sine Qua Non : Making Scientific Data & Knowledge not only accessible but also Understandable, Relevant and Useful to Society

Outline: 

Outline Science and Society: A Gap Bridging the Gap A Case Study: the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment A New Social Contract for Science

A Gapin perceptions of relevance and usefulness of scientific data, information & knowledge: 

A Gap in perceptions of relevance and usefulness of scientific data, information & knowledge Scientists: Our knowledge is relevant & important. Why isn’t it used? Why isn’t it better funded?

The Gap: 

The Gap Policy makers: Scientific information: far removed from our decisions. Results: too complex and couched in uncertainties and qualifiers. Conclusions: ambiguous, do not provide clear guidance & ignore the complexities of policymaking. Scientists can’t agree Some of our constituents don’t trust your science.

Some causes of the Gap: 

Some causes of the Gap Different ideas about the role of science Most scientists are not trained to translate complex science into understandable and policy-relevant information Data and information: too much and not enough Lack of opportunity to develop credible international scientific assessments Lack of transparency in the production of knowledge and lack of opportunities for non-scientists to contribute to knowledge base.

Bridging the Gap:Some Possible Solutions: 

Bridging the Gap: Some Possible Solutions Clarify role of science Train scientists to communicate more effectively Organize data & information to make them more useful and relevant Establish ongoing credible scientific assessments Increase openness in the conduct of science and opportunities for citizens to participate in meaningful ways

Historic Roles of Science: 

Historic Roles of Science 1. Improve Human-Well Being Health Labor-saving devices Communications Education Intellectual Curiosity Assist National Defense/Security 3. Enhance National Prestige 4. Promote Economic Growth Technology Transportation

Another, often unappreciated role of science: To inform (not dictate)the understanding, discussions, and decisionsof individuals and institutionsand thereby improve lives and enhance human well-being : 

Another, often unappreciated role of science: To inform (not dictate) the understanding, discussions, and decisions of individuals and institutions and thereby improve lives and enhance human well-being

Role of science: To inform: 

Role of science: To inform Discover how systems work (natural, social and coupled social-natural systems) Document changes Understand consequences of changes Develop and evaluate options for alternate pathways

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If decisions are to be informed by science, Decision-makers need to have access to scientific information that is understandable, relevant, usable and credible.

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However, and especially for some areas like environmental science, The science is complex, nuanced and difficult to communicate simply. Uncertainties are real (but there is often more agreement about the basics than is communicated). Vested interests often spin, distort or cherry-pick information.

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The Result: 1. Decisions are made without good science. 2. Science is seen as a weapon, not as useful knowledge.

Bridging the Gap:Some Possible Solutions: 

Bridging the Gap: Some Possible Solutions Clarify role of science: also to inform Train scientists to communicate more effectively: e.g. : Aldo Leopold Leadership Program (USA) 2-way communication “Know thy audience; know thy self; know thy stuff” Narrative; analogies; simple messages www.leopoldleadership.com

Bridging the Gap:Some Possible Solutions: 

Bridging the Gap: Some Possible Solutions Clarify role of science Train scientists to communicate more effectively Organize data & information to make them more useful and relevant

Bridging the Gap:Some Possible Solutions: 

Bridging the Gap: Some Possible Solutions Clarify role of science Train scientists to communicate more effectively Organize data & information to make them more useful and relevant Establish ongoing credible scientific assessments e.g.: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Bridging the Gap:Some Possible Solutions: 

Bridging the Gap: Some Possible Solutions Clarify role of science Train scientists to communicate more effectively Organize data and information to make them more useful and relevant Establish ongoing credible scientific assessments Increase openness in the conduct of science and opportunities for citizens to participate in meaningful ways

Conclusions: 

Conclusions The Gap can be Bridged, but doing so requires effort by scientists and by society. Scientists can and should actively work to build these bridges, but they must be done in partnership with governments and civil society

Outline: 

Outline The Gap Bridging the Gap A Case Study: the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (the ‘MA’)

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Scientific Assessment

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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment international scientific assessment ecosystems and services around the world www.MAweb.org 2005, 2006 status & trends in ecosystems around the world

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA): 

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) A global scientific assessment of: the consequences of environmental changes to human well-being status of global ecosystem services options for change Released 2005, 2006 www.MAweb.org

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“Ecosystem Services” = Benefits provided by ecosystems

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Converting an ecosystem means losing some services and gaining others – e.g., A mangrove ecosystem: Provides nursery and adult habitat , Seafood, fuelwood, & timber; traps sediment; detoxifies pollutants; protects coastline from erosion & disaster

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Converting a mangrove to provide housing, shrimp ponds or agricultural areas, means Losing some services and gaining others Or crops Shrimp, Gain: housing, Loose: nursery and adult habitat , Seafood, fuelwood, & timber; traps sediment; detoxifies pollutants; protects coastline from erosion & disaster

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Many ecosystem services are quite valuable, but are not priced. Example: The Catskill Watershed provides drinking water to the city of New York water purification is one ecosystem service provided by this forest

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Options: 1) Restore the watershed so it could resume providing this service of water purification = $1 billion

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Options: 1) Restore the watershed so it could resume providing this service of water purification = $1 billion OR 2) Build a water purification plant (i.e., build a human-made substitute) = $8-10 billion

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“You don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone.” (Joni Mitchell)

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4 Types of Ecosystem Services Regulating climate regulation disease regulation flood regulation water purification Provisioning • food • fresh water • fuel wood • genetic resources Cultural • spiritual • recreational • aesthetic • educational Supporting • Soil formation • Nutrient cycling • Primary production

A unique feature of the MA: Consequences for People: 

A unique feature of the MA: Consequences for People

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1. Humans have radically altered ecosystems in last 50 years Changes have brought gains but at growing costs that threaten achievement of development goals Degradation of ecosystems could grow worse but can be reversed Workable solutions will require significant changes in policy Main Findings

Across all Ecosystems, 60% of Ecosystem Services are degraded : 

Across all Ecosystems, 60% of Ecosystem Services are degraded

The Ecosystem Services Balance Sheet: 

The Ecosystem Services Balance Sheet Crops Livestock Aquaculture Carbon sequestration Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh Water Air quality regulation Regional & local climate regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural Hazard regulation Spiritual & Religious Aesthetic values Timber Fiber Water regulation Disease regulation Recreation & Ecotourism Enhanced Degraded Mixed

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Mangrove ecosystem Mangrove Services: nursery and adult fishery habitat fuelwood & timber carbon sequestration traps sediment detoxifies pollutants protection from erosion & disaster Trade-offs among ecosystem services

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Mangrove Conversion Private Net Present Value per hectare Mangrove: $91 Shrimp Farm: $2000 1987 1999 Public Net Present Value per hectare Mangrove: $1,000 to $3,600 Shrimp Farm: $-5,400 to $200

The main messages of the MA: 

The main messages of the MA We are having increasingly larger impacts on ecosystems and their services Many segments of society have benefited from the mining of ecosystem services but the sustainability of these services is at risk Scenarios of the future show do not show substantial abatement of degradation We have options to build more favorable trajectories, but these will take substantial new actions

The MA Bottom Line: 

The MA Bottom Line We are spending Earth’s natural capital, putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted.  The future is in our hands.  We can reverse the degradation of many ecosystem services over the next 50 years, but many changes in policy and practice will be required.

Example: global ocean trends: 

Example: global ocean trends Depletion of ocean ecosystems Loss of resilience (increased likelihood of abrupt changes)

“The times they are a changin’…Today we fish- farther and farther from shore,- deeper and deeper,- more efficiently,- more safely,- and in formerly  inaccessible places: 

“The times they are a changin’… Today we fish - farther and farther from shore, - deeper and deeper, - more efficiently, - more safely, - and in formerly inaccessible places

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Year of Peak Fish Harvest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

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Year of Peak Fish Harvest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project

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Fishing Deeper and Deeper: Global Average Depth of Fish Catches www.MAweb.org

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Global fisheries peaked in 1980s and are now declining* 25% of global fisheries are significantly depleted* 90% of all big fish are gone** The Oceans are Being Depleted * UN FAO 2005 ** Myers and Worm 2003 Nature -www. MAweb.org

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Newfoundland Cod landings www.MAweb.org There is an increased likelihood of abrupt changes

The Result:Empty OceansEmpty Nets: 

The Result: Empty Oceans Empty Nets

Biological Causes of Declines: 

Biological Causes of Declines Rate of Fishing > rate of replenishment Selective catch of big old fat female fish (BOFFF) undermines replenishment Unintended ecosystem impacts of fishing: habitat destruction & by-catch Cumulative and interactive effects of fishing, pollution, coastal development, upstream activities, climate change

What’s Down the Road?: 

What’s Down the Road? More of the same unless underlying problems are addressed (overfishing + coastal development + chemical and nutrient pollution + climate change)

A vision for the future:: 

A vision for the future: Healthy seafood Clean beaches Stable fisheries Abundant wildlife Vibrant coastal communities For now and future generations

Key recommendations to achieve vision: 

Key recommendations to achieve vision Protect and restore ecosystems Improve fishery management & implement ecosystem-based management Establish networks of marine reserves Couple management of land and sea Educate citizens Invest in research and monitoring

Historical Note: 

Historical Note Until very recently, the ocean was replete with de facto marine reserves – areas where it was: too far away, too deep, or too rocky to fish. Now, < 1% is in reserves

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Changes inside Marine Reserves: - From Halpern ‘03 and Palumbi ‘03 Species are more abundant, larger and more diverse inside reserves.

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Size matters: A 40 cm vermilion rockfish produces 150,000 young, whereas a 60cm one produces 1.7 million young 40cm 60cm = 100,000 babies 50 cm

 Marine Reserve Conclusions:Potential to Benefit both Conservation & Fishery Management: 

Marine Reserve Conclusions: Potential to Benefit both Conservation & Fishery Management Protect Habitats, Species and Ecosystem Functioning Provide Spill over of juveniles & adults Provide Export of larvae Protect big old fat female fish (BOFFF) Provide insurance against mismanagement or environmental changes Serve as scientific reference areas

Recap: Role of science - To informexamples from oceans: 

Recap: Role of science - To inform examples from oceans Document changes: depleted oceans Understand consequences: poverty; poor human health; economic and social disruption; political conflict Develop and evaluate options: e.g., marine reserves = “no take” areas

Recap: Outline: 

Recap: Outline Science and Society: A Gap Bridging the Gap A Case Study: the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment : Oceans A New Social Contract for Science?

Recap: Bridging the GapSome Possible Solutions: 

Recap: Bridging the Gap Some Possible Solutions Clarify role of science Train scientists to communicate more effectively Organize data & information to make them more useful and relevant Establish ongoing credible scientific assessments Increase openness in the conduct of science and opportunities for citizens to participate in meaningful ways

Society needs credible, understandable and relevant scientific data, information and knowledge.Are we delivering?Are we fulfilling our social contract?: 

Society needs credible, understandable and relevant scientific data, information and knowledge. Are we delivering? Are we fulfilling our social contract?

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www.MAweb.org www.leopoldleadership.org www.PISCOweb.org