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THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND RUSSIA:WHAT IS TO BE DONE?: 

THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND RUSSIA: WHAT IS TO BE DONE? A. Illarionov Adviser to the President of Russia National Press Club, Washington, DC January 30, 2004 © Institute of Economic Analysis

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s total CO2 emissions are lower thanthose of other countries not adopting emission limits: 

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against Russia Russia’s total CO2 emissions are lower than those of other countries not adopting emission limits

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s CO2 emissions per capita are lower thanthose of other countries not adopting emission limits: 

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against Russia Russia’s CO2 emissions per capita are lower than those of other countries not adopting emission limits

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are lower thanthose of other countries not adopting emission limits: 

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against Russia Russia’s CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are lower than those of other countries not adopting emission limits

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s GDP per capita is lower thanthose of other countries not adopting emission limits: 

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against Russia Russia’s GDP per capita is lower than those of other countries not adopting emission limits

The Russia's Kyoto Cross.Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of CO2 quotas.(Actual Russia’s CO2 emissions, conservative forecast and its Kyoto Protocol limits): 

The Russia's Kyoto Cross. Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of CO2 quotas. (Actual Russia’s CO2 emissions, conservative forecast and its Kyoto Protocol limits)

The Russia’s Kyoto Trap.Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia won’t be able to sell its CO2 quotas.(Forecast of CO2 quotas market in the EU in 2008-2012): 

The Russia’s Kyoto Trap. Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia won’t be able to sell its CO2 quotas. (Forecast of CO2 quotas market in the EU in 2008-2012)

The Kyoto protocol’s inefficiency.The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve its proclaimed goals.(The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World’s CO2 emissions): 

The Kyoto protocol’s inefficiency. The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve its proclaimed goals. (The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World’s CO2 emissions)

The Kyoto Protocol is not universal.It is backed by the World minority.The World majority did not adopt the Kyoto Protocol limits.(The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World aggregates): 

The Kyoto Protocol is not universal. It is backed by the World minority. The World majority did not adopt the Kyoto Protocol limits. (The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World aggregates)

The Kyoto Protocol puts brakes on economic growth: 

The Kyoto Protocol puts brakes on economic growth

The Kyoto Protocol incompatible with economic growth.CO2 emissions are associated with economic growthin the mid-income countries (47 countries),1960-2000: 

The Kyoto Protocol incompatible with economic growth. CO2 emissions are associated with economic growth in the mid-income countries (47 countries),1960-2000 Doubling GDP Kyoto 2012 Kyoto 2050 -3.5

The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with poverty reduction.CO2 emissions are associated with economic growthin the low-income countries (52 countries),1960-2000: 

The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with poverty reduction. CO2 emissions are associated with economic growth in the low-income countries (52 countries),1960-2000

The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with wealth accumulation. СО2 emission are associated with economic growthin developed economies, too (38 countries), 1991-2000 : 

The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with wealth accumulation. СО2 emission are associated with economic growth in developed economies, too (38 countries), 1991-2000

The Kyoto Protocol is unbearably expensive.The cost of compliance can be as high as 1750 US$ tlnbetween 1990 and 2100, or up to 15% of annual GDP in affected countries: 

Source: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, IPCC, p.119. The Kyoto Protocol is unbearably expensive. The cost of compliance can be as high as 1750 US$ tln between 1990 and 2100, or up to 15% of annual GDP in affected countries

The Kyoto Protocol is oriented on technological illusions.It’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbonsto another energy base in a short period of timeWorld energy consumption by source of origin : 

The Kyoto Protocol is oriented on technological illusions. It’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbons to another energy base in a short period of time World energy consumption by source of origin

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science.The variation of CO2 concentration can not be explainedby variation in CO2 emissions of anthropogenic character: 

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation of CO2 concentration can not be explained by variation in CO2 emissions of anthropogenic character Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature can not be explainedby the variation in CO2 concentration: 

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature can not be explained by the variation in CO2 concentration Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature can not be explainedby variation in CO2 emissions of anthropogenic character: 

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature can not be explained by variation in CO2 emissions of anthropogenic character Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.

The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature is positively correlated with variation in CO2 concentration only from 1976-2003. This is the ONLY such sub-periodout of 6 sub-periods between 1860 and 2003: 

The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature is positively correlated with variation in CO2 concentration only from 1976-2003. This is the ONLY such sub-period out of 6 sub-periods between 1860 and 2003

The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen.It appears reasonable for short-term periods.Absolute temperature (30 YMA), England, 1659-2002: 

The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears reasonable for short-term periods. Absolute temperature (30 YMA), England, 1659-2002 Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.

The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen.It appears unproven for longer-term periods.Absolute temperature (30 YMA), NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992: 

The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods. Absolute temperature (30 YMA), NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992 Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.Absolute temperature (30 YMA), Tasmania,1571 BC - 1991 AD: 

The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods. Absolute temperature (30 YMA), Tasmania,1571 BC - 1991 AD Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest in the history of civilization.Variation in temperature in the last 5000 years: 

Source: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp.552-554. The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods. The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest in the history of civilization. Variation in temperature in the last 5000 years Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)

The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for long-term periods. The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest in the history of Earth. The long-term (M.Milankovitch) climatic cycles for the last 420 000 years.: 

Source: J.R. Petit et al. (19 authors). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. -Nature, 399 (1999), 429-436. The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for long-term periods. The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest in the history of Earth. The long-term (M.Milankovitch) climatic cycles for the last 420 000 years. о Temperature anomalies (Со)

The asserted increase in the frequencyof extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.Variance in temperature (30 YMA), England, 1659-2002: 

The asserted increase in the frequency of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven. Variance in temperature (30 YMA), England, 1659-2002 Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.

The asserted increase in the frequency of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.Variance in temperature (30 YMA), NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992: 

The asserted increase in the frequency of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven. Variance in temperature (30 YMA), NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992 Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

The asserted increase in the frequencyof extraordinary climatic events appears unproven. Variance in temperature (30 YMA), Tasmania, 1751 BC – 1991 AD: 

The asserted increase in the frequency of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven. Variance in temperature (30 YMA), Tasmania, 1751 BC – 1991 AD Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

Asserted increase in the speed of the current temperature change appears unproven. It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 1000 years.Change in the global temperature over 30 preceding years: 

Asserted increase in the speed of the current temperature change appears unproven. It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 1000 years. Change in the global temperature over 30 preceding years

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Asserted increase in the speed of the current temperature change appears unproven. It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 4000 years. Change in temperature over 30 preceding years, Tasmania, 1751BC–1991AD Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actuallyGlobal Cooling, not Global Warming. In the history of civilization climatic optimums are associated more with prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.Global absolute temperature (30 YMA), 1000-2003: 

Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actually Global Cooling, not Global Warming. In the history of civilization climatic optimums are associated more with prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes. Global absolute temperature (30 YMA), 1000-2003 Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actually Global Cooling, not Global Warming.In the history of humanity climatic optimums are associated more with prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.Variation in temperature in the last 5000 years: 

Source: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp.552-554. Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actually Global Cooling, not Global Warming. In the history of humanity climatic optimums are associated more with prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes. Variation in temperature in the last 5000 years Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)