Slide1: UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners Fast-start technology roadmapping Prague Thursday 9th October 2003, 09:00 - 13:00 Dr Robert Phaal


Slide2: Workshop aim An introduction to the theory and practice of technology roadmapping To provide:


Slide3: Agenda 09:00 Overview 09:10 Technology roadmapping - principles & practice 10:30 Break 11:00 T-Plan ‘fast-start’ approach 11:20 Group activity - the bicycle of the future 12:30 Discussion - getting started 13:00 Review and close


Slide4: Technology roadmapping - principles & practice


Slide5: Roadmapping - Planning for the Future


Slide6: Technology roadmapping process Benefits Facilitate the integration of new technology into the business Support for company strategy and planning processes Identify new business opportunities for exploiting technology Provide top level information on the technological direction of the business Support communication and co-operation within the business Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge Support sourcing decisions, resource allocation, risk management and exploitation decisions High-level integrated planning and control - a common reference / framework


Slide7: Time is a key dimension… Time Uncertainty / risk of prediction / investment Short term Medium term Long term Operations Innovation Strategy qualitative focus quantitative focus What to manufacture? How many of each model? What materials to order? Which products? Which markets? What cost? Which technologies? New (?): - Markets - Products - Technologies - Capabilities - Organisational structures - Distribution channels - Competition


Slide8: Technology ‘S’ curves Adapted from Bower & Christensen, 1995 Performance New dominant technology (disruptive??) Current dominant technology ‘Turbulence’ Time Technology as a dynamic resource Shape influenced by: Market demand Scientific knowledge Investment / innovation Technology discontinuity 1. Shape the future 2. Adapt to the future 3. Reserve the right to play Courtney et al (HBR, 1997) Strategic Postures Emerging Pacing Key Base


Slide9: Co-evolution Evolution of long range planning approaches 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Motorola develops technology roadmapping approach Strategic planning Take up in electronics sector Semiconductor Technology Roadmap Policy Futures & Scenario planning Foresight Forecasting Take up in other sectors - companies - consortia - government Roadmapping approach supports integrated strategic planning Science fiction


Slide10: Technology roadmapping Relationship to the strategic planning process Market Information Product-Market analysis Product-Technology Options Evaluation Technology Assessment Identification of Technology Available / Feasible / Possible Roadmap Creation Defined Targets Project Proposals Where are the boundaries of the roadmapping process? Source: EIRMA, 1997


Slide11: Technology roadmapping Two extremes 1. Market ‘pull’ - How to reach a goal? Planning Market focus Assumes product market opportunity Deterministic Convergent Customer driven 2. Technology ‘push’ - What opportunities could arise? Technology focus Looking for opportunities Open ended Divergent


Slide12: 1 Understand 2 Persuade 3 Synchronise Roadmapping influence Measure: Ongoing co-ordination Measure: Aligned priorities & decisions Measure: Accuracy and clarity Simplification Resource allocation Product planning Competitive analysis Forecasting Project management Programme management Corporate planning Portfolio management Kappel, 2001 (Lucent Technologies) Fast-Start The ‘fast-start’ concept: roadmapping as an ongoing process


Slide13: Flexibility of roadmapping Flexibility is a key strength (and challenge) of the roadmapping approach, in terms of: The wide range of aims that roadmapping can contribute towards The timeframe covered by the roadmap (past and future) The structure of the roadmap (layers and sub-layers), which can be adapted to fit the particular application The process that is followed to develop and maintain the roadmap/s The graphical format that is selected to present information and communicate the roadmap The set of existing processes, tools and information sources in the firm, which the roadmap and roadmapping process need to integrate with


Slide14: Types of roadmap: purpose and format


Slide15: Generic roadmap - links resources to objectives


Slide16: Technology roadmaps Examples of applications Motorola - To encourage business managers to give proper attention to the technological future - To provide a vehicle for organising the forecasting process - To communicate to design & development engineers and marketing personnel which technologies will be required in future products Lucas - To provide integrated project planning for engineering systems - To supply sound technological inputs to the budget process Post Office Research Group - To communicate the research plans to business sponsors - To help focus and prioritisation of research activity - To identify where expert knowledge is required in the future


Slide17: Motorola Roadmap Matrix - summary of product plans and technology forecast


Slide18: 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 External influences Market Trends 1. 2. 3. 4. . a) b) c) d) . . 2 3 4 1 External Influences System Demonstrator Component / Sub-system Technology Project Lucas roadmaps - a required input to the budget process


Slide19: Lucas Technology Road-map activity coding Activity Description Market Trends Addressed Principal Participants/Collaborators Project Status External Funding Source Time Window


Slide20: Technology Base External : Markets Competitors Technologies ... Business Planning Acquisition Planning Acquisitions JVs Licensing PP+TRMs Make Buy Lucas - linking Technology to Business Planning


Slide21: Post Office Research - communicating & prioritising


Slide22: Foresight Vehicle technology roadmapping initiative The overall goal of the technology roadmapping initiative was to support the aims of the Foresight Vehicle consortium, providing a framework for ongoing investment in UK research partnerships, focused on achieving sustainable wealth creation and quality of life This required identification of market and industry trends and drivers that impact future requirements for road transport in the UK, and the associated technology needs and opportunities The roadmapping process encouraged communication and discussion within a creative workshop environment and the roadmap provides a framework for continuing this more broadly in the future


Slide23: Social Economic Environmental Technological Political Infrastructural Social, economic and environmental drivers reflect the three cornerstones of sustainable development Technology, policy and infrastructure enable or constrain progress towards the social, economic and environmental goals Road transport system: key themes


Slide24: Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: architecture Time Market / Industry drivers Performance measures and targets Technical Group areas +5 years Now Vision +10 years +15 years S T E E P I +20 years Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties Evolution of required and desirable functional performance of road transport systems of the future Required and desired technological response, including research requirements


Slide25: Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: process Planning (Oct ‘01) Market and industry trends and drivers Road transport system performance measures and targets Consultation Engine and powertrain (E&PT) Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicles (HEV) Advanced software, sensors, electronics and telematics (ASSET) Advanced structures and materials (FASMAT) Design and manufacturing Processes (DMaP) Synthesis Reporting (Sept ‘02) Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information 10 month duration 10 workshops More than 130 participants More than 60 organisations


Slide26: 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Vision Social attitudes towards road transport and the environment? New working / living patterns Cheap, safe, reliable, clean convenient, comfortable transport for all 2030: population in the UK is forecast to increase by 3.3%, to 61 million 1,39,40,67, after which it will decline to 57 million by 2050 73 2016: 4 million (25%) increase in housing (80% single-person), increasing demand for travel 1,67 Continued growth of cities and towns, mainly in South East Frustration with congestion and public transport continues ? (journey time no longer predictable) Increasing mobile working 80-85% of journeys by car 39,40,103 Increasing leisure time 39,40 Increasing complexity of lives ? Increasing concern about crime, security and safety 2000: 3,500 road traffic deaths and 40,000 serious injuries in UK, at an estimated cost of £13.3bn (40,000 deaths and 1.7 million injuries in EU, representing a cost of 2% of GDP) 8,37,39,40 Journey times increasing (70% longer by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67 Growth in personal mobility (70% of drivers use car for leisure day trips every week or month; 50% expect to be making more by 2020) 42 Vehicles sold increasingly as ‘lifestyle’ choices ? Increasing female vehicle purchase / ownership (women are more likely to describe their cars as ‘stylish’, ‘sporty’ or ‘fun’) 42 Shift in social attitudes to speeding Demand to reduce deaths and injuries on roads Trend towards career ‘downsizing’ for improved lifestyle ? Younger generation more IT-literate Increased use of car pools ? 2010: 50% increase in rail passenger miles 30 2010: 10% increase in bus passenger journeys 30 2012: Bicycle journeys double 31 2010: Passenger numbers through UK airports increase by 50% 30 2030: 22- 27% of UK population over retirement age, compared to 19% in 1998; pension costs rise from 4.5-5.5% of GDP 1,25,39,40 2015: 150% increase in international air traffic; 100% increase in domestic, compared to 1995 1 2031: 57% increase in UK road traffic, compared to 1996 80,103 2007: working at home becoming common (currently more than 66% of European organisations with more than 500 employees already practice teleworking) 28,39,40 2021: Households in South-east forecast to grow by 19% on 2001 levels 41 Between 8 and 20% of car-owning households experience vehicle-related crime each year, depending on region 41 1999: UK ‘leads’ world in vehicle theft (twice global average at 2.5%); cost of vehicle-related crime £6bn 46,47 2016: 25% increase in number of UK households, 80% of growth due to single person households; 1.3% rural land use predicted to change to urban land use 39,40 Legal issues and frameworks ? More residential traffic calming schemes and pedestrianisation of town centres Many different stakeholder groups, with different needs from transport system Balance between global, national and local solutions ? UK car-centric culture Shift from car ownership to car access ? Individual ‘time budget’ for travel remains constant ? 2010: 20-50% increase in European road passenger and haulage traffic 13,80 2010: 25% of UK workforce teleworking at least two days per week 57 2015: 400 million people live in megacities of more than 10 million inhabitants 57 Key: Health, safety & security Mobility & congestion Lifestyle & attitudes Demographics 2031: 40% increase in bus / coach vehicle miles, compared to 1996 1 2022: 70% increase in journey times in many UK cities 1996 80 Increasing proportion of women in paid employment (9.9 million in 1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73 75% of all journeys are under 5 miles and 45% are less than 2 miles 31 Nearly one third of UK households do not have a car (13 million people) 31 More than half of drivers exceed speed limits on motorways, dual carriageways and residential roads 66 People and jobs have moved out of the city and town centres 103 Example detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers


Slide27: Society Cheap, safe, convenient, comfortable, clean and secure transport for all Ageing population Changing working and living patterns Growing demand for mobility Increasing concern for health, safety and security Congestion and pressure on infrastructure Continued growth of cities and towns Consumer demand for greater variety, quality and performance of products and services Increased mobile and home working More single person households Social attitudes towards transport and the environment Continued growth of South East Example summary roadmap content: Social trends & drivers 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022


Slide28: Example summary roadmap content: Social performance measures & targets Society Vehicle adaptability Urban people transport Effective selling and customer support 2005: 70% user satisfaction with all transport modes (measure of ‘convenience’) 2010: 80% user satisfaction with all transport modes 2005: Road traffic noise reduced by 3dBA from 1998 levels 2010: Road traffic noise reduced by 4dBA 2020: 85% user satisfaction with all transport modes 2020: Road traffic noise reduced by 6dBA; Homologated noise reduction of 4dBA and 8dBA for light and heavy vehicles, respectively Aim for ‘equitable’ mobility (same price for same journey for all groups in society) 2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5 - Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5 minutes - Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window glass: 2 minutes 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022


Slide29: Example summary roadmap content: Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology Hybrid, electric & alternatively fuelled vehicles Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology development, leading to new fuel and power systems, such as hydrogen and fuel cells, which satisfy future social, economic and environmental goals Sustainable vehicle fuel and engine systems, that meet the needs of society, industry and the environment Increasing variety and use of hybrid, electric, multi-fuel and alternatively fuelled vehicle technologies, and development of fuels and infrastructure Hydrogen fuel cell technology and infrastructure becoming viable on a large scale Pilot trials and local fuel distribution infrastructure development Continuous improvement in terms of range, life, safety and performance; development of legislation and standards Use of hydrogen in IC engines, and with fuel cells as auxiliary power units Development of electrics, electronics and battery systems for new engine and powertrain systems Development of supporting technologies (storage systems, compressors, air supply, reforming, materials, thermal management, etc.) trucks and buses first 50kW fuel cells and subsystems 200kW fuel cells and subsystems for heavy vehicles ? 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022


Slide30: Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping Aims: To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap for Faraday Partnership, bringing together industrial and research communities To collect, structure and share knowledge about recent and future developments in markets and technology, together with requirements and capabilities of future applications To identify key emerging strategic issues, research challenges, and way forward


Slide31: Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping approach Trends & drivers Applications Technology Past Now Plans Future Vision Architecture Process 1a) Map trends & drivers 1b) Map technology 2a) Application needs 2b) Application capabilities 3) Applications - Map - Research challenges - Skills - Way forward 1a 1b 2a 2a 2b 2b 3


Slide32: Faraday Partnership technology roadmap process Planning 1 day Workshop (knowledge mapping & strategic review) Review meeting Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information Detailed TRM Phase 1 Phase 2 Roll-out Summary TRM Strategic TRM Thematic TRM Template TRM Project TRM Potential TRM ‘modes’


Slide33: Software for technology roadmapping Software supports the roadmapping process, in terms of data storage Integration and communication, particularly as the process matures… A number of systems are used: MS PowerPoint or other graphics software MS Project or other Gantt software MS Excel or other spreadsheet software US Office of Naval Research ‘Graphical Modelling System’ (GMS) - free! - http://www.onr.navy.mil/gms/gms.asp The Learning Trust ‘Geneva Vision Strategist’ - enterprise solution (Motorola) - http://www.learningtrust.com


Useful references: Useful references Willyard and McClees (1987), ‘Motorola's Technology Roadmap process’, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19 EIRMA (1997) ‘Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision’, Working Group Report No 52 Groenveld (1997) ‘Roadmapping integrates business and technology’, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55 Kostoff, R.N. (1997), ‘Science and Technology Roadmaps’, Defense Technical Information Center, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html Garcia & Bray (1997) ‘Fundamentals of technology roadmapping’, Sandia National Lab, http://www.sandia/gov SAND97-0665 Schaller(1999) master roadmap bibliography: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rschalle/master.html Kappel (2001) ‘Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future’, Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol 18, pp39-50 Research Technology Management - special edition on technology roadmapping, Vol 42, No. 2, March 2003 (5 papers, including Domino Printing Sciences, Lucent Technologies, Roche and Rockwell Automation experience) OEM Roadmaps - lots of links to (mainly) sector roadmaps: http://www.oemroadmaps.com US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50, July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/links.html Australian guide to developing technology roadmaps - technology planning for business competitiveness, August 2001: http://industry.gov.au/library/content_library/ 13_technology_road_mapping.pdf Industry Canada - Technology roadmapping - a strategy for success, including a guide for government employees: http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/intrm-crt.nsf/vwGeneratedInterE/Home


Slide35: T-Plan ‘fast-start’ approach


Slide36: Roadmapping challenges Source: CTM survey, 1999


Slide37: To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes To establish key linkages between technology resources and business drivers To identify important gaps in market, product and technology intelligence To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm To support communication between technical and commercial functions http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/pubs/TPlan/index.htm T-Plan aims


Slide38: T-Plan Applications Sector / product Industrial coding (x3) Postal services (x10) Security / access systems Labelling software Surface coatings Medical packaging (x2) Automotive sub-systems Power transmission Railway infrastructure (x3) National infrastructure Building controls Road transport Technical consulting (x6) Automotive / Aerospace Academic (x2) Biochemicals Satellite navigation Food processing Pneumatic systems Emerging technologies Automotive Retail (x2) Construction Aims - Product planning - Integration of R&D into business; business planning - Product planning - Product planning - New product development process - Business reconfiguration - Service development & planning - Business opportunities of new technology - Capital investment planning and technology insertion - Research programme planning - New product / service opportunity; business reconfiguration - Defining the national research agenda for the sector - New product / service development, strategy - Corporate co-operation and synergy - Strategic planning - Research priorities / network development - Research priorities / network development - Research priorities / network development - Innovation strategy - Research priorities - Innovation opportunities - Business and product strategy - Global production strategy


Slide39: Fast-start TRM process Standard and Customised process Integrated product-technology strategic planning General strategic planning


Slide40: Workshop 1 Market Workshop 2 Product Workshop 3 Technology Workshop 4 Roadmapping Performance dimensions Market / business drivers Prioritisation SWOT Gaps Product feature concepts Grouping Impact ranking Product strategy Gaps Technology solutions Grouping Impact ranking Gaps Linking technology resources to future market opportunities Gaps Standard T-Plan process Procedure: 4 half-day workshops Setting up the process Managing the process Following on from the process


Slide41: time Business / Market Product / Service / Production Technology / Resources Product features Business / Market drivers Product features Technology solutions Technology Roadmap Analysis Grids Roadmap input data & structure development


Slide42: Example Market-Product grid (Softco)


Slide43: Example Product-Technology grid (Softco)


Slide44: Example first-cut technology roadmap (Softco)


Slide45: Group activity - the bicycle of the future


Slide46: Biko, a small traditional but well regarded bicycle manufacturer has just been taken over by a large sports equipment and clothing manufacturer, Sportco The new owner has requested a technology roadmap outlining how Biko proposes to develop its market offering over the next 10 years, and if convinced by their business case is willing to make significant investment A preliminary market review and SWOT analysis have resulted in two areas of potential interest being identified: 1. Power assisted bicycles 2. High performance ‘lifestyle’ bicycles Biko: Introduction


Slide47: Biko: Instructions Read handout & follow step-by-step guidance Step 1: Market & Business Step 2: Product & Service Step 3: Technology


Slide49: Feedback What lessons have been learnt about roadmapping? How would you take it forward from here?


Slide50: Discussion - getting started


Slide51: Planning (customisation checklist) Standard process: - Follow the guide Customised process: - Creative and collaborative design activity Context: scope, focus, aims and resources Roadmap architecture Process Participants Workshop scheduling Integration: systems, processes & information Preparatory work


Slide52: Plan dialogue Business owner TRM process owner Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process Domain knowledge Business need Focus, scope, aims


Implementing roadmappingIndividual planning & discussion: Implementing roadmapping Individual planning & discussion See planning sheet: Objectives, scope, stakeholders, architecture, process, information sources, key issues, next steps Individually (or with colleagues) work through ‘planning sheet’ - 10 minutes Pull out key points for discussion


Slide54: Roadmapping success factors Source: CTM survey, 1999


Slide55: Communication roadmaps What is the message? Who are you communicating to? Information representation / graphic design challenge, drawing on detailed TRM… focus on the ‘story’ and ‘big picture’


Slide56: Conclusions Benefits of roadmapping: A focus for integrated strategic planning Can be applied in a wide range of contexts Supports communication and network development Challenges of roadmapping: Not a magic bullet - initially more questions than answers likely Maintaining the process - the real benefit lies in its ongoing use The process and roadmap typically need to be customised


Slide57: Review Has the workshop met your expectations? Will you give roadmapping a try? Any questions? Further support: Contact us: Rob Phaal at rp108@eng.cam.ac.uk TRM User Group: http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/trmug.htm


Slide58: Close


Slide59: Example Biko output “Super-bike” £500-1000 Style Comfort Technical Designer look Ergonomic design Direct drive On-line design Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc. New owner - Investment New Range 2nd Generation “Design your own bike” Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition Demonstrator Moulded seat Customised frame Expand range Automatic” “Chip-on-bike” Internet design Electronics Networked business Communications Ergonomics mass customisation Security Materials / mechanics Visualisation CADCAM Networked factory Alliances: gear / drive; styling; electronics Capital Branding & promotion Skills Sportco