WestNileVirus WhattoExpect2004BobR olfs

West Nile Virus2004What to Expect?: 

West Nile Virus 2004 What to Expect? Robert T. Rolfs, MD, MPH State Epidemiologist Utah Department of Health

WNV Infection – HumanOther Western States, 2003: 

WNV Infection – Human Other Western States, 2003

WNV Infection – HumanOther Western States, 2003: 

WNV Infection – Human Other Western States, 2003

WNV – Human Disease Burden2004, Weld County: 

WNV – Human Disease Burden 2004, Weld County Population (2001) = 194,949 Cases = 402 (206.2 per 100,000) Neuroinvasive = 118 (60.5 per 100,000) Deaths = 5 Hospitalizations - 10-12 / day Hospital census (WNV) ~10%

WNV – Human casesSelected Western Counties: 

WNV – Human cases Selected Western Counties NID – Neuroinvasive disease (meningitis, encephalitis)

Utah 2004 - Human WNV CasesProjected from Colorado rates: 

Utah 2004 - Human WNV Cases Projected from Colorado rates *Numbers based on calculated rates only, not actual cases in Utah

Utah 2004 - Human WNV CasesProjected from S. Dakota Rates: 

Utah 2004 - Human WNV Cases Projected from S. Dakota Rates *Numbers based on calculated rates only, not actual cases in Utah

Utah 2004 - Human WNV CasesProjected from Weld Co. Rates: 

Utah 2004 - Human WNV Cases Projected from Weld Co. Rates *Numbers based on calculated rates only, not actual cases in Utah

West Nile Fever VirusLessons from 2004 National Conference: 

West Nile Fever Virus Lessons from 2004 National Conference WNV Not going away and has hit harder each year since 1999 WNV Fever not as benign as was thought “Why didn’t you tell me it would be like this?” Don’t be surprised by speed and intensity of outbreak Need to emphasize Prevention

WNV 2004 -- Prevention: 

WNV 2004 -- Prevention Coordinated surveillance and communications Mosquito control Personal protective behavior Changing behavior isn’t easy, but it can be done Education, risk communication, social marketing, etc. We need to get some help Health educators, marketing expertise Community-based organizations – Rotary, churches, Boy and Girl Scouts, etc.

WNV 2004 – What can we expect?: 

WNV 2004 – What can we expect? I guess we could be lucky (New Mexico) Utah estimate if N.M. rates occur here: 265 cases, 92 neuroinvasive But I’d rather prepare for Colorado, Nebraska, and South Dakota and be disappointed: Utah estimate of S.D. rates occur here: 3,318 cases, 482 neuroinvasive, 46 deaths