tekelenburg antoni

Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity;Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 modeland the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework: 

Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity; Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 model and the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework International conference Millennium Assessment: Bridging scales and epistemologies

New Challenges: 

New Challenges Millennium development Goals Johannesburg 2010 target CBD biodiversity indicators Applications in the MA National (BINU) and regional EU / OECD applications

Outline presentation: 

Outline presentation Previous work GEO3 and PEEP land use change agricultural intensity climate change GLOBIO 3 applied to Latin America Biodiversity Assessment Ecuador Upscaling national to global Downscaling global to national 2010 target Global interactive research

Key questions to be addressed by GLOBIO 3: 

Key questions to be addressed by GLOBIO 3 What is changing: biodiversity (ecosystems, species and their abundance) natural areas expected trends (scenario’s) geographically explicit most vulnerable areas Why is it changing different pressures relative importance of pressures What can we do about it effects of response options (e.g. to reach policy targets)

Comparison pressure indices:Global (GEO3) and Regional EU (Peep): 

Comparison pressure indices: Global (GEO3) and Regional EU (Peep)

Contrasting trends of biodiversity impact: forest in EU: 

Contrasting trends of biodiversity impact: forest in EU

Suggestions for improvements: 

Suggestions for improvements Methodology for construction of pressure indices Considering agricultural landscapes (agroecosystems) dose-respons relationships from species abundance literature Upscaling local information Downscaling global information

Slide8: 

B = LU * Agr* For * C * N * F B = Biodiversity of a region LC = biodiversity value for land cover type Agr = biodiversity reduction due to agriculture For = biodiversity reduction due to forestry C = biodiversity loss due to climate change N = biodiversity loss due to Nitrogen pollution F = biodviversity loss due to Fragmentation Overall Biodiversity

Data flow in the Global Biodiversity Model: 

Data flow in the Global Biodiversity Model

Biodiversity impact from land use change: 

Biodiversity impact from land use change

Examples from literature: 

Examples from literature

Slide12: 

Biodiversity effects of Land cover change

Biodiversity impact from agricultural intensity: 

Biodiversity impact from agricultural intensity

Comparison organic and conventional Farming: 

Comparison organic and conventional Farming

Biodiversity loss due to of landuse change: 

Biodiversity loss due to of landuse change

Expected ecosytem quality in agroecosystems based on average production intensity (per Farming System): 

Expected ecosytem quality in agroecosystems based on average production intensity (per Farming System) Average based on land use change only 30%

Biodiversity loss per farming systemGLOBIO3 pressure approach (2000): 

Biodiversity loss per farming system GLOBIO3 pressure approach (2000) Remaining biodiversity? Forest based farming system 94% Coastal plantation & mixed 73% Intensive Highland Mixed North Andes 53%

Biovalores (ecosistema x producción): 

Biovalores (ecosistema x producción)

Ecosystem quality in Ecuador: 

Ecosystem quality in Ecuador

Ecosystem quality for agroecosystems per ecosystem in Ecuador: 

Ecosystem quality for agroecosystems per ecosystem in Ecuador

Área intervenida, mosaico y natural: 

Área intervenida, mosaico y natural 50-70% ecosystem quality

Slide22: 

Shifts of Biomes (IMAGE) and species (Euromove) Biodiversity impact from Climate Change

Biodiversity impact from Climate Change: 

Biodiversity impact from Climate Change

Downscaling from the global modelBiodiversity Situation 2000 NCI: 

Downscaling from the global model Biodiversity Situation 2000 NCI Loss by land use change 27% Loss by international air pollution 0% Loss by climate change 2% Loss by agricultural intensification 5% Loss by forest explotation 1% _______________________________________ Natural Capital (2000) 65%

Trends of biodiversity change on quality of ecosystems: 

Trends of biodiversity change on quality of ecosystems

Interaction of stakeholders with reference to the evaluation of the 2010 target : 

Interaction of stakeholders with reference to the evaluation of the 2010 target

End: 

End

Which process to indicate? : 

Which process to indicate? Main factors: - habitat loss - loss ecosystem quality The uniformity process of biodiversity loss: many rare species becoming more rare and few common species becoming more common (change of abundance or distribution of species)

The Natural Capital Index: Biodiversity =area size x ecosystem quality: 

The Natural Capital Index: Biodiversity =area size x ecosystem quality Ecosystem quality = average abundance/distribution of a set of characteristic species in relation to an ideal, original or historical reference

Natural Capital 2001 for Ecuadorian ecosystems: 

Natural Capital 2001 for Ecuadorian ecosystems

Comparison biodiversity state (NCI) of two ecosystems in Ecuador: 

Comparison biodiversity state (NCI) of two ecosystems in Ecuador bha = 87,23 28,20 77,05 7,35 2,83 5,1 7,14 15,96 87,23