Slide1: Impact of Climate Change Scenarios on Indian Agriculture PK Aggarwal, S Nagarajan, ME Shibu and YS Ramakrishna* Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi *Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad


Climate Change Scenarios for India: Climate Change Scenarios for India Source: Lal et al., 2001


Estimates of Future Levels of CO2: Estimates of Future Levels of CO2 Source: IPCC, 2001


Slide4: Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climatic Change


Impact Assessment Direct Effects on Crop Yields: Impact Assessment Direct Effects on Crop Yields


Impact Assessment of Direct Effects of Climate Change: Impact Assessment of Direct Effects of Climate Change Controlled Environment Facilities: Phytotron, Open-top chambers, Free Air CO2 Enrichment Simulation models Understand/ predict behavior of biological systems on the basis of quantitative understanding of dynamic processes from experiments in field and controlled environments Integrate spatial and temporal variability in soil, weather, crop, pests and management factors Methods


Slide7: Current weather Temperature Radiation Rainfall CO2 Wind, humidity Using Simulation Models for Impact Assessment of Climate Change


Slide8: Validation of Wheat model-WTGROWS in Contrasting Agro-Environments Source: Aggarwal et al. 1994


Slide9: Validation of Rice model-ORYZA in Contrasting Agro-Environments Source: Kropff et al. 1994


Slide10: Response of Simulated Grain Yields of Irrigated Wheat to Climate Change in North India


Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Wheat Yields in North India: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Wheat Yields in North India Minimum and maximum changes refer to the impacts under different scenarios


Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Rainfed Wheat Yields in Central India: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Rainfed Wheat Yields in Central India Minimum and maximum changes refer to the impacts under different scenarios


Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Rice Yields in North India: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Rice Yields in North India Minimum and maximum changes refer to the impacts under different scenarios


Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Maize Yields in North India: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Maize Yields in North India Minimum and maximum changes refer to the impacts under different scenarios


How Does Global Warming Effect Crop Yields of Resource Poor Farmers?: How Does Global Warming Effect Crop Yields of Resource Poor Farmers?


Slide16: Resource poor farmers may, however, be more vulnerable due their limited capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity


Impact Assessment on Regional Production: Impact Assessment on Regional Production


Food Demand in India: Food Demand in India Can India meet its food requirements?


Slide19: Regional Estimates of Crop Production The Approach PRODUCTION CROP YIELD Fertilizer Variety Dates of sowing Weather (current and past season) Soil Management (current and past season) SATELLITE MULTIDATE IMAGES CROP AREA CROP GROWTH MODEL Irrigation


Comparison of Measured and Forecasted Wheat Production in India: Comparison of Measured and Forecasted Wheat Production in India


Possible Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India: Possible Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India Average decrease is 100,000 tons/year


Declining Response of Wheat to Improved Management in Global Warming Scenarios: Declining Response of Wheat to Improved Management in Global Warming Scenarios


Slide23: Impact Assessment Indirect Effects


Slide24: Appearance dates of black rust in 1972-73 and its relation to changes in temperatures in different regions of India Months with 14oC isolines Appearance dates of black rust


Increased climatic variability may have serious impact on Indian agriculture: Increased climatic variability may have serious impact on Indian agriculture Extreme weather events are projected to increase: higher maximum and minimum temperatures, more hot days, fewer cold days more intense precipitation events over many areas increase in tropical cyclone and precipitation intensities intensified floods and droughts events in many regions


Slide26: Droughts in Rainfed Rice Area Source: Pandey et al, 2000 22 m ha of rice area in India (largely eastern India) is drought prone Probability of drought : 35% Drought frequency higher in UP, Chattisgarh, and Bihar compared to Orissa and West Bengal


Anomaly of Kharif Rainfall and Production of Rice in E. India: Anomaly of Kharif Rainfall and Production of Rice in E. India Source: Gadgil et al., 1999,


Recent Changes in Weather: Recent Changes in Weather


Slide29: Trends in Rabi Temperature Maximum Minimum


Slide30: Trends in Kharif Temperature Maximum Minimum


Slide31: Climatic Variability in Uttaranchal Seasonal / Annual scale trend analysis of long term rainfall Source: Pant et al (1999) Trends expressed as cm / 100 years * Significant at 5%


Slide32: Decline in Yield of Rice and its Relation to Weather at Ludhiana Decline in yield is apparently also related to decrease in radiation and increase in minimum temperature


Adaptation Strategies: Adaptation Strategies


Adapting to Global Warming by Changed Management and Breeding: Minimum and maximum changes refer to the impacts under different scenarios, new management refers to a longer duration variety and one week early planting Adapting to Global Warming by Changed Management and Breeding


Uncertainties: Uncertainties Magnitude of change Technologies Crop and pest responses Adaptation options Policies Methods of assessment


Slide36: Uncertainty of Response to Global Climate Change


Conclusions: Conclusions


Slide38: On an aggregated level, no significant impact provided pests are under control. Some regions and crops may show slight negative effect, particularly rainfed rabi crops. Recent changes in weather indicate a warming trend at many places. This could be partly related to observed yield stagnation/decline in intensive cropping systems. Direct Impacts of Climate Change Short-term


Direct Impacts of Climate Change: Long-term Production of kharif crops may be less effected but may become more risky due to increased climatic variability and pest incidence and virulence. Production of rabi crops is more seriously threatened due to shortened crop growing period, and increased water stress. Partial mitigation possible by alternate management. Increasing future demand for food may have to be met in a scenario of reducing crop yields and with much higher levels of input usage. Direct Impacts of Climate Change


Slide40: More serious due to increased incidence of extremes of the weather such as rainfall onset, duration and frequencies of drought and floods, and submergence of some coastal land. Diseases and insects strongly influenced by temperature and humidity. Any increase in the latter, depending upon their base value, can significantly alter their population, and associated yield loss. Quality of fruits, vegetables, tea, coffee, aromatic, and medicinal plants can be effected by small changes in temperature. Indirect effects of climate change


Slide41: Agriculture in India is at present undergoing rapid transformation due to changing demands, markets and agricultural technologies. Pace of these changes is likely to increase in near future These changes may perhaps be more important than the climate change. Need to develop integrated (intra- and inter-sector) assessment procedures for impact assessment of global climate change Drivers of Agriculture in an Uncertain Future


Slide42: Projections Speculations Predictions Explorations Uncertainty about future Understanding of the integrated response of agro-ecosystems to climate change