What Does It Take to Derive Adaptation Relevant Information from Climate Model Simulations?: What Does It Take to Derive Adaptation Relevant Information from Climate Model Simulations? Acknowledgement: WMO (invitation and travel support) ETCCDI (WMO), IDAG, Francis Zwiers (Canada), Tom Peterson (USA), Wenjie Dong (China), Gabi Hegerl (UK), Susan Solomon (USA) Xuebin Zhang Climate Research Division Science and Technology Branch www.ec.gc.ca COP 13, WMO Side Event, Dec. 5, 2007, Bali, Indonesia


Slide2: Global mean surface temperature Global mean sea level NH snow cover Fig SPM-3 Warming in the climate system is unequivocal Clear attribution of the 20th century warming to human influences at global and continental scales


Observed and model simulated precipitation trends (1925-1999): Observed and model simulated precipitation trends (1925-1999) Zhang et al. 2007, Nature A combination of human and natural influence provides the best explanation for the observed rainfall shifts over the past 50-75 years Natural influences alone can not explain the observed changes


Slide4: Cyclone Sidr Category 4 storm Death toll over 3000 Evacuation reduces loss of life Climate impacts are local and those from extreme weather and climate events are the most severe


Chongqing (China) 2006 Drought : Chongqing (China) 2006 Drought Source of photos: China Gov. website Hottest Summer


Slide6: Climate impacts are Local, and those from extreme weather and climate events are the most severe Current knowledge about the causes of climate change are most often based on large-scale and mean state Our knowledge is not sufficient to meet the needs of adaptation


Anthropogenic contribution to extreme temperature in China, a successful example: Anthropogenic contribution to extreme temperature in China, a successful example Use model simulations and climate data to identify the causes of climate change at the scale that is the most close to adaptation needs Transfer larger-scale climate change information for adaptation purpose Demonstrate the needs for additional science


Number of stations reporting warmest year during 1951-2005 in China: Number of stations reporting warmest year during 1951-2005 in China Warmest years occurred mostly in the last 10-15 years


Observed and modeled mean temperature anomalies in China: Observed and modeled mean temperature anomalies in China Climate models that include human forcing simulate the observed changes Natural influences alone can not explain the observed changes


Humans are responsible for the recent increase in extreme warm temperatures: Humans are responsible for the recent increase in extreme warm temperatures Humans may have increased the risk of extreme temperatures by this factor


Risk of extreme temperatures will increase by 2025: Risk of extreme temperatures will increase by 2025 Present 50-year event becomes 2~5-year event by 2025 Risk of extreme temperatures is projected to increase by this factor


What does it take… : What does it take… Climate models To understand the climate response to external forcing (e.g. CO2) To project future climate change Monitoring systems and historical climate data To document the past and to monitor the current climate To validate climate models Daily climate data essential for analyzing extremes Basic research To better understand the mechanisms of the climate system To improve models and to reduce uncertainty To understand the causes of changes in impact relevant variables (floods, heat waves, tropic cyclones etc.) at impact relevant scales


Challenges: Challenges Science Impact relevant variables and space-time scales Larger uncertainty at smaller scales Physical processes at regional and local scales Monitoring systems and data access Deteriorating monitoring network Limited data exchange slows scientific progress Digitized data not always available Data archives sometimes lost


Daily climate data scarcity was a challenge for IPCC 3rd assessment : Daily climate data scarcity was a challenge for IPCC 3rd assessment Note large blank areas in “global” indices map


Slide15: IPCC AR4 made great progress, but blank areas remain


WMO ETCCDI Workshops: WMO ETCCDI Workshops ETCCDI coordinated efforts contributed significantly to the IPCC AR4 We need to worry about updates for future assessment


Conclusions: Conclusions Best intelligence about climate change is climate science Poor and/or biased intelligence leads to disasters NMHSs should be included in planning of national adaptation and mitigation strategies We need to work together more than ever Climate knows no national borders More attention to less developed world Improve communication Scientific research plays a key role Improving models and reducing uncertainty Detection on variables and at scales relevant to impacts Data and monitoring systems are vital Improving access to and exchange of climate data Maintain and improve monitoring systems