African lag

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Why Does Africa Lag?: 

Why Does Africa Lag? April 13, 2004

Why Does Africa Lag?: 

Why Does Africa Lag?

The Nature of the Lag: 

The Nature of the Lag Hunger and Poverty Agricultural Production

Lagging in Alleviating Hunger and Poverty: 

Lagging in Alleviating Hunger and Poverty

Africa has had very little improvement in food availability. India was not much better, but India coped with a much large population increase.: 

Africa has had very little improvement in food availability. India was not much better, but India coped with a much large population increase.

The incidence of hunger in developing regions (1996-98): 

The incidence of hunger in developing regions (1996-98)

2000 FAO: 

2000 FAO

Number of Malnourished Children Increased in Africa; Decreased Elsewhere: 

Number of Malnourished Children Increased in Africa; Decreased Elsewhere

% of Malnourished Children Fell Slowly in Africa;Fell Rapidly Elsewhere: 

% of Malnourished Children Fell Slowly in Africa; Fell Rapidly Elsewhere

GDP Grew Slower than Population (2.6) in Africa;More rapidly than Population Elsewhere : 

GDP Grew Slower than Population (2.6) in Africa; More rapidly than Population Elsewhere AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH OF GDP (%)* 1990 - 2000 SUBSAHARAN AFRICA 2.4 SOUTH ASIA 5.6 EAST ASIA % PACIFIC 7.2 LATIN AMER % CARIB. 3.3 ALL LOW andamp; MIDDLE INCOME 3.6 * Source: WB, World Development report 2002

GROWTH OF GNP/CAPITA 1980-2000 (fao): 

GROWTH OF GNP/CAPITA 1980-2000 (fao)

Poor Prospects for Income Growth: 

Poor Prospects for Income Growth

Very High Infant Mortality End Of 1990s (UNDP 2000): 

Very High Infant Mortality End Of 1990s (UNDP 2000)

Low Human Development Index 1994: 

Low Human Development Index 1994

Lagging in Agricultural Production: 

Lagging in Agricultural Production 'Africa’s hunger is a farm productivity problem.' (Paarlberg2002, p. 27) Poverty derives from poor productivity Distribution is not the key.

Lagging Yields in Main Staple Crops (% Increase 1961-2003): 

Lagging Yields in Main Staple Crops (% Increase 1961-2003) AFRICA* Maize 66% Cassava 59 Rice 35 Millet 36 Sorghum 13 * Developing ASIA* Rice 124% Wheat 289 Maize 238 LATIN AMER andamp; CAR - Maize 175%

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Lagging Cereal Production Per Capita(% Change 1961 - 2003) : 

Lagging Cereal Production Per Capita (% Change 1961 - 2003) ALL CEREALS (Prod/CAP) AFRICA - 6% ASIA + 53% ALL DEVELOPING + 38%

Falling Grain Production Per Capita 1950-1995(World Watch): 

Falling Grain Production Per Capita 1950-1995 (World Watch)

Lagging in Cash Crop Yields(percentage change 1961 -2003): 

Lagging in Cash Crop Yields (percentage change 1961 -2003) COFFEE COTTON AFRICA - 9% + 69% ASIA + 75 +249 LATIN AM andamp; C + 47 +128

Why The Lag?: 

Why The Lag? 1. Rapid population growth 2. Poor soils; and fertilizer is costly -- see below 3. Poor rains: Many areas have a. low annual rainfall, b. high variability, and c. a short rainy season. 4. High temperatures a. excess evaporation in dry areas b. rapid decomposition of organic matter in wet areas

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5. Topography a. limited altitude variation so limited crop variety b. not much land is suitable for irrigation (4% of cultivated area is irrigated versus 44% in China) 6. Pests and diseases that attack crops, livestock and people 7. High Transportation costs because a. population is dispersed b. high potential areas are far from markets and ports c. road network is limited and in poor condition 8. Not suitable for Green Revolution crops and technologies -- see 2-6 above

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9. Falling prices for agricultural exports 10. State control (Socialism?) 11. Following western advice 12. Poor governance 13. HIV/AIDS

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1. High and rapidly growing population strains resources (natural, financial, human) and makes technological adaptation difficult.

Very rapid population growth: 

Very rapid population growth POPULATION GROWTH RATES 1990-2000 (%)* ALL LOW andamp; MIDDLE INCOME 1.6 SUBSAHARAN AFRICA 2.6 MIDDLE EAST AND N. AFRICA 2.2 SOUTH ASIA 1.9 LATIN AMER. andamp; CARIB. 1.6 EAST ASIA andamp; PACIFIC 1.2 EUROPE andamp; CENTRAL ASIA 0.2 HIGH INCOME 0.7 *Source: World Bank, World Development Report 2002

Troublesome Projection: African Population will double in one generation(Divide 70 by growth rate to get doubling time): 

Troublesome Projection: African Population will double in one generation (Divide 70 by growth rate to get doubling time)

Traditional shifting cultivation cannot deal with rapid population growth: -fallows become too short; -new technology cannot be adopted fast enough. : 

Traditional shifting cultivation cannot deal with rapid population growth: -fallows become too short; -new technology cannot be adopted fast enough.

Example Of A Traditional Shifting Cultivation System: 

Example Of A Traditional Shifting Cultivation System Northwest Tanzania on the south shore of Lake Victoria - a good farming area 30 inches of rain in bimodal pattern Cassava and maize are main staples Cotton is main cash crop Average farm is 25 acres -- 8 in crops 1/3 own cattle (no plowing, don’t use manure; it’s too much work to spread and weed) Fish from lake are in regular supply

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2. Soils 3. Rains 7. Transportation 9. Export Prices 10. State Control 11. Western Advice 12. Governance 13. Hiv/Aids

2. poor soils 3. low and variable rainfall The challenges of rapid population growth are exacerbated by poor natural conditions: : 

2. poor soils 3. low and variable rainfall The challenges of rapid population growth are exacerbated by poor natural conditions:

1997: 

1997

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An Example of Low and Variable Rainfall:The West African Sahel: 

An Example of Low and Variable Rainfall: The West African Sahel

7. High transportation costs are caused by a. dispersed population, b. high potential areas far from markets and ports, and c. poor roads. This contributes to high input costs (hence low fertilizer use) and low farmgate output prices. : 

7. High transportation costs are caused by a. dispersed population, b. high potential areas far from markets and ports, and c. poor roads. This contributes to high input costs (hence low fertilizer use) and low farmgate output prices.

Dispersed population: 

Dispersed population

Cultivation intensity 1996. Compare Africa to Asia and North America: 

Cultivation intensity 1996. Compare Africa to Asia and North America

Costly Transportation: An Example From Tanzania: 

Costly Transportation: An Example From Tanzania The high potential cotton growing area south of Lake Victoria is about 500 miles overland from Dar es Salaam, the port for exporting cotton and importing fertilizer.

9. Prices for Africa’s agricultural exports have been falling for 30 years.: 

9. Prices for Africa’s agricultural exports have been falling for 30 years. (deflated prices in 1990 terms) 1970 2001 Cotton: $0.31/kg $0.11/kg Cocoa: $2.68/kg $1.04/kg Coffee: $2.01/kg $0.44/kg Sisal price declined by more than half from 1976 to 2001 Source: FAO. 2002. 'Ag Commodities: Profiles …' http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4343E/y4343e00.htm#Contents

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10. State control and socialist programs stifled incentives, created perverse market signals, and fostered inefficiency and corruption. 11. Western advice to use agriculture as an engine of growth led to disincentives for farmers. Western advice on structural adjustment led to problems for the poor.

12. Poor governance has impeded development.: 

12. Poor governance has impeded development. African governments have not consistently provided key requisites for development: Internal peace Rule of law Rural infrastructure Agricultural research and extension Source: Paarlberg, Robert. 2002. ‘Governance and Food Security in an Age of Globalization,' IFPRI, Food, Ag and Env Disc Paper #36

Lack of internal peace cuts production: 

Lack of internal peace cuts production Between 1975-1995 12 African countries (1/4 of population) had wars for long periods. Armies and militias take labor and food Food production per capita 12.4% less during war Refugee problems Causes: Arbitrary boundaries, many ethnic groups, and the struggle for wealth-generating political power?

Slide44: 


Weak rule of law stifles incentives.: 

Weak rule of law stifles incentives. Rule by leader or party instead of rule by law. Inadequate protection for property Inadequate enforcement of contracts Higher levels of corruption than Asia and LA Makes domestic wealth holders invest abroad, and dissuades foreigners from investing in Africa Causes: Personal rule stemming from colonialism. enclave economies, debt, and foreign aid?(source: Leonard, D. and S. Straus. 2003. Africa’s Stalled Development, Boulder: Lynne Reinner Publishers)

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 1980, 1998: 

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 1980, 1998

Low investment in rural infrastructure slows growth: 

Low investment in rural infrastructure slows growth Lack of rural sanitation and access to clean water spreads disease and malnutrition Limited road coverage, 1/3 LA and 1/6 Asia Only 7% of Uganda’s roads are paved Poor roads mean high transport and marketing costs, which mean lower farmgate prices for outputs and higher cost of inputs. Causes: 'Personal rule' government is oriented to the international community and to enclaves, not to prosperity of mass of residents? Poverty?

Low investment in agricultural research and extension means low innovation: 

Low investment in agricultural research and extension means low innovation 'Between 1971 and 1991,, 44 Subsaharn African countries, public expenditures on research and development for agriculture increased by only 35 percent, versus a 166 percent average increase in all 131 devloping countries together.' (Paarlberg, p. 37 Causes: Personal rule? Poverty?

13. HIV/AIDS: 

13. HIV/AIDS Loss of agricultural labor force Loss of funds and labor time for patient care Sale of productive resources for funerals Shift to less time-intensive crops: less nutritious, less cash cropping, less plant diversity decreased transmission of knowledge across generations Collapse of social safety net, of social assets

WHAT TO DO?: 

WHAT TO DO? World Bank 1981 and 2003 USAID IFPRI Africa Conference Uganda

World Bank priorities for Africa, 1981(Structural Adjustment): 

World Bank priorities for Africa, 1981 (Structural Adjustment) More suitable trade and exchange rate policies 'open' the economy: via devaluation, end import quotas Increased efficiency of resource use in the public sector public sector is overextended, especially in ag marketing encourage indigenous private sector Improvement in agricultural policies better farmgate prices, more competitive marketing improve irrigation and rural roads invest more in ag research Source: WB. 1981. Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa ('The Berg Report'), p. 5

World Bank Priorities for Africa, 2003: 

World Bank Priorities for Africa, 2003 Priorities Debt relief Post-conflict support Dealing with communicable diseases Regional integration Capacity building Market access for African products

World Bank Lending to Africa 2003: 

World Bank Lending to Africa 2003

USAID Initiative to End Hunger in Africa: 

USAID Initiative to End Hunger in Africa Agricultural technology Efficient agricultural trade and market systems Community and producer based organizations Human capital, infrastructure, and institutions Help the chronically poor and reduce vulnerability to shocks Environmental management

Conference on Assuring Food and Nutrition Security in Africa by 2020Kampala, Uganda, April 1-3, 2004: 

Conference on Assuring Food and Nutrition Security in Africa by 2020 Kampala, Uganda, April 1-3, 2004 Strategies Strengthen governance and public accountability Foster macroeconomic growth and stability Invest in food processing for value addition Invest in pro-poor health policies to increase labor productivity and nutrition security Invest in raising agricultural productivity (GMOs?) Invest in human capacity, particularly education of women, youth, and farmers

Uganda’s Poverty Eradication Action Plan, 2002: 

Uganda’s Poverty Eradication Action Plan, 2002 Enabling environment for growth (macroeconomic policy) Good governance and security Increase incomes of the poor via infrastructure (roads), access to market, land tenure, … Improve quality of life for the poor via health care, water, sanitation, … http://www.finance.go.ug/peap.html

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