Charts for Inflation Report 3/2002: Charts for Inflation Report 3/2002


Chart 1.1 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44), trade-weighted exchange rate1) and interest rate differential against other countries2).. Weekly figures: TWI (right-hand scale) I-44 (right-hand scale) 12-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 1) A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone 2) The US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden Source: Norges Bank Chart 1.1 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44), trade-weighted exchange rate1) and interest rate differential against other countries2).. Weekly figures


Chart 1.2 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per cent: 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway 2) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Chart 1.2 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services2). 12-month rise. Per cent


Chart 1.3 Consumer prices. Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent: CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changes CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank CPI CPI-AT1) CPI-ATE1) Chart 1.3 Consumer prices. Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. 12-month rise. Per cent


Chart 1.4 Consumer prices for some imported goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent: Chart 1.4 Consumer prices for some imported goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Imported consumer goods Cars Clothing and footwear Audiovisual equipment


Chart 1.5 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and among Norway’s trading partners. Percentage change from previous quarter. Annual rate: Sources: National sources of statistics and EcoWin Chart 1.5 GDP growth in the US, the euro area and among Norway’s trading partners. Percentage change from previous quarter. Annual rate US Trading partners Euro area


Chart 1.6 Equity prices in Norway, the US and the UK. Index, Week 1 in 2002 = 100.: Chart 1.6 Equity prices in Norway, the US and the UK. Index, Week 1 in 2002 = 100. Source: EcoWin Wilshire 5000 FTSE 100 OSEBX


Chart 1.7 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel. Daily figures: Chart 1.7 Oil price, Brent Blend. USD per barrel. Daily figures Source: Norges Bank


Chart 1.8 Three-month forward rates1) for Germany and the US. Monthly figures. Per cent: Chart 1.8 Three-month forward rates1) for Germany and the US. Monthly figures. Per cent Germany US 1) Three-month forward rates are estimated using money market rates and government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 24 October. Source: Norges Bank


Chart 1.9 Registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted: Source: Directorate of Labour Registered unemployed and labour market programmes Registered unemployed Chart 1.9 Registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted


Chart 1.10 Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons: Whole country Western Norway Eastern Norway Central and northern Norway Southern Norway Source: Directorate of Labour Chart 1.10 Change in unemployment on same month previous year. In thousands of persons


Chart 1.11 Change in employment 2001 and 20021). Per cent: Chart 1.11 Change in employment 2001 and 20021). Per cent 1) Change first half of 2001 to first half of 2002 Source: Statistics Norway 2001 2002 Manu-facturing Cons-truction Private services Public sector Total


Slide13: Chart 1.12 Consumer confidence indicator.1) Unadjusted figures. 1999 Q1 - 2002 Q3 Total Own economy Norway's economy Provides an expression of the share with a positive assessment of the current situation and outlook for the future less the share with a negative assessment. Source: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS


Slide14: Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and Norges Bank Credit to households Chart 1.13 House prices and credit to households. 12-month rise. Per cent Rise in house prices


Chart 1.14 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume: 2002 2000 Source: Statistics Norway 2001 Chart 1.14 Goods consumption index. 1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume


Chart 2.1 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US, and prices for industrials. Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100. Weekly figures: Chart 2.1 Equity prices and long-term interest rates in the US, and prices for industrials. Index, Week 1 in 2001 = 100. Weekly figures Sources: EcoWin, The Economist, Wilshire Associates Wilshire 5000 Industrials Long-term rates (10-year)


Chart 2.2 Consumer confidence indicators in the US and the euro area. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. Monthly figures: Chart 2.2 Consumer confidence indicators in the US and the euro area. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. Monthly figures Sources: European Commission and the Conference Board Inc. Euro area (right-hand scale) US (left-hand scale)


Chart 2.3 Capacity utilisation in industry in the US and the euro area. Per cent of capacity. Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly figures: Chart 2.3 Capacity utilisation in industry in the US and the euro area. Per cent of capacity. Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly figures Sources: Federal Reserve and European Commission Euro area US


Chart 2.4 Three-month interest rates in the US, the euro area and Japan: Chart 2.4 Three-month interest rates in the US, the euro area and Japan Source: EcoWin Euro area US Japan


Chart 2.5 Wage growth in the US and the euro area.Percentage rise on same quarter previous year: Chart 2.5 Wage growth in the US and the euro area. Percentage rise on same quarter previous year Source: EUROSTAT and Bureau of Labor Statistics Euro area US


Chart 2.6 Consumer price inflation¹) in the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK. Percentage change from previous year: Chart 2.6 Consumer price inflation¹) in the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK. Percentage change from previous year Euro area US Japan UK 1) CPI in the US and Japan, HICP in the euro area and RPIX in the UK Sources: EcoWin and national statistics sources


Chart 2.7 Oil price. Brent Blend. USD per barrel. Daily figures: Chart 2.7 Oil price. Brent Blend. USD per barrel. Daily figures Sources: International Petroleum Exchange, London and Norges Bank Futures prices 24 October 2002 IR 3/2002


Chart 3.1 Mainland GDP and number of employed. Percentage change from previous year, 1990-2004: Chart 3.1 Mainland GDP and number of employed. Percentage change from previous year, 1990-2004 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Mainland GDP Employment


Chart 3.2 Structural non-oil deficit. Percentage of trend mainland GDP. 2002-2009: Chart 3.2 Structural non-oil deficit. Percentage of trend mainland GDP. 2002-2009 Sources: National Budget 2003, Revised National Budget 2002 National Budget 2003 Revised NB 2002


 Chart 3.3 Change in the structural non-oil budget balance1). 1990-2003: Chart 3.3 Change in the structural non-oil budget balance1). 1990-2003 1) The budget balance as a percentage of trend mainland GDP; change from previous year. Source: National Budget 2003


Chart 3.4 Real underlying spending growth in the government budget and growth in mainland GDP. Percentage change from previous year. 1990-2002: Chart 3.4 Real underlying spending growth in the government budget and growth in mainland GDP. Percentage change from previous year. 1990-2002 Sources: Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank Mainland GDP. Real underlying spending growth


Slide27: 1) Figures for household disposable income taken from the national accounts Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.5 Household debt as a percentage of disposable income¹) and household interest expenses after tax as a percentage of cash income. 1980-2001 Interest expenses (right-hand scale) Debt (left-hand scale)


Chart 3.6 Debt in relation to disposable income¹) for households distributed by income level ²). Per cent. 1984-2001: Decile 10 Total Decile 1-6 Decile 7-9 1) Figures for household disposable income are taken from Statistics Norway's income and wealth survey, which is based on tax return statistics. The figures from and including 2000 are projections 2) Decile 10 consists of the 10 per cent of households with highest household income (over NOK 490 000 after tax in 1999), decile 9 consists of the next 10 per cent etc. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.6 Debt in relation to disposable income¹) for households distributed by income level ²). Per cent. 1984-2001


Chart 3.7 Labour costs¹) in Norway and among trading partners. Percentage change from previous year. 1993-2001: Chart 3.7 Labour costs¹) in Norway and among trading partners. Percentage change from previous year. 1993-2001 ¹) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing ²) Including costs of additional vacation days in 2000 and 2001 Sources: Ministry of Finance, TRCIS/IMF and Norges Bank Norway2) Trading partners


Chart 3.8 Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners. Index, 1970=100. 1970-2004: Sources: Statistics Norway, TRCIS/IMF and Norges Bank Local currency Common currency Chart 3.8 Relative labour costs in Norwegian manufacturing compared with trading partners. Index, 1970=100. 1970-2004


Chart 3.9 Petroleum investment. Actual investment and projections. In billions of NOK. Constant 1999 prices.: Chart 3.9 Petroleum investment. Actual investment and projections. In billions of NOK. Constant 1999 prices. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank


Chart 3.10 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2004.In 1000s employed: Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 3.10 Manufacturing employment, 1970-2004. In 1000s employed


Chart 3.11 Developments in some indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 03.01.00 -24.10.02. Index, 3 January 2000 = 100: Source: EcoWin Financial IT All share index Manufacturing Chart 3.11 Developments in some indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Daily figures, 03.01.00 -24.10.02. Index, 3 January 2000 = 100


Chart 3.12 Change in employment from previous year. Per cent. Unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force. 1980-2004: 1) Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank Unemployment rate (left-hand scale) Employed (right-hand scale) Chart 3.12 Change in employment from previous year. Per cent. Unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force. 1980-2004


Chart 3.13 Change in the labour force from previous year. Per cent. The labour force as a percentage of the population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate). 1980-2004 : Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Labour force participation rate (left-hand scale) Change in labour force (right-hand axis) Chart 3.13 Change in the labour force from previous year. Per cent. The labour force as a percentage of the population aged 16-74 (labour force participation rate). 1980-2004


Chart 4.1 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent: Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Chart 4.1 Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services. 12-month rise. Per cent


Chart 4.2 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent: CPI CPI-ATE Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 4.2 Consumer prices (CPI). Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent


Chart 4.3 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate2). Per cent: Chart 4.3 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate2). Per cent 1) Average for all groups. Including costs of additional vacation days 2) Registered unemployed as a percentage of the labour force Sources: TRCIS, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank Unemployment rate Annual wage growth


Chart 4.4 Wage share1) and return on total assets2) in manufacturing. Per cent: 1) Labour costs as a percentage of value added 2) Ordinary profit/loss after tax + depreciation - write-downs as a share of total assets. Excluding oil companies Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Return on total assets (left-hand scale) Wage share (right-hand scale) Chart 4.4 Wage share1) and return on total assets2) in manufacturing. Per cent


Chart 4.5 Producer prices and consumer prices. 25 trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent: Sources: EcoWin, Datastream, the OECD and Norges Bank Chart 4.5 Producer prices and consumer prices. 25 trading partners. 12-month rise. Per cent Consumer prices Producer prices


Chart 4.6 Import-weighted exchange rate and prices for imported consumer goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent: Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) Imported consumer goods Chart 4.6 Import-weighted exchange rate and prices for imported consumer goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent


Chart 4.7 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent: Chart 4.7 Consumer price inflation1). Projection and uncertainty. 12-month rise. Per cent 2.5 2.5 1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank


Chart 4.8 Different scenarios for the krone exchange rate (I-44): Chart 4.8 Different scenarios for the krone exchange rate (I-44) Source: Norges Bank Uncovered interest rate parity Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 Average last 3 months (89.0) Stronger exchange rate


Chart 4.9 Different scenarios for consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent: Chart 4.9 Different scenarios for consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent CPI-ATE Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Uncovered interest rate parity Stronger exchange rate Baseline scenario


Chart 4.10 Technical assumption1) and expectations concerning short-term money market rates2). Per cent: Chart 4.10 Technical assumption1) and expectations concerning short-term money market rates2). Per cent 1) Sight deposit rate 2) Three-month money market rates up to and including Q3. Three-month forward rates are estimated using four money market rates and five government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 24 October. Source: Norges Bank Forward interest rates 24 October IR 3/02


Chart 4.11 Projected rise in CPI-ATE under various assumptions. 12-month rise. Per cent: Chart 4.11 Projected rise in CPI-ATE under various assumptions. 12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Uncovered interest rate parity and market expectations regarding interest rates Uncovered interest rate parity, market expectations regarding interest rates and 4½ per cent wage growth


Slide47: Annex 3


Slide48: Source: Norges Bank Deposit rate Overnight rate 3-month money market rate IR 3/02: 7.0


Slide49: Source: Norges Bank Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 (1995=100) Trade-weighted exchange rate, TWI (1990=100) IR 3/02: 94.6 IR 3/02: 89.0


The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent: Source: Norges Bank Credit to households C2 The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3). 12-month rise. Per cent C3 mainland Norway


Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent: Source: Norges Bank CPI Consumer prices (CPI and CPI-ATE). 12-month rise. Per cent CPI-ATE


Three-month interest rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent: 1) Theoretical ECU rate up to December 1998 Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank Euro area1) US Japan Three-month interest rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent


Mainland GDP and private consumption. Percentage change from previous year.: Source: Statistics Norway Private consumption Mainland GDP. Mainland GDP and private consumption. Percentage change from previous year.