2017Facing The Future: 2017 Facing The Future 2017 Embracing The Future An Economic Vision for a Sustainable Community


Slide2: Why bother about winter?" said the Grasshopper; "we have plenty of food right now."  The weather soon turned cold.  All the food lying in the field was covered with a thick white blanket of snow that even the grasshopper could not dig through.  Soon the Grasshopper found itself dying of hunger. He staggered to the ants' hill and saw them handing out corn from the stores they had collected in the summer. Then the Grasshopper knew: It is best to prepare for the days of necessity


Town of Estes Park Mission: Town of Estes Park Mission The Mission of the Town of Estes Park is to plan and provide reliable, high-value services for our citizens, visitors, and employees. We take great pride ensuring and enhancing the quality of life in our community by being good stewards of public resources and our natural setting.  


Town of Estes Park Estes Park Vision: Town of Estes Park Estes Park Vision The Town of Estes Park will continue to be one of the premier mountain resort communities in the United States. This vision includes: Being a caring organization sensitive to the needs of our citizens, visitors, and employees.   Having an employee team that takes pride in being recognized as a model of innovation and performance.   Providing services which are responsive and reliable.


Town Board Goal #1: Town Board Goal #1 Develop an economic vision which recognizes and supports the economic component of tourism looks at future opportunities of diversity creates an overriding plan or strategy for future economic development.


EP 2017 Economic Advisory Committee: Bill Pinkham Town Trustee – Chairman Bill Almond Holiday Inn & Rocky Mountain/Trail Ridge Jim Bangs Estes Park Lumber Eric Blackhurst Anderson Realty & Management John Ericson Jr. EP Storage/Serendipity Paul Fishman 14’ers Cafe Donald Gleich Jr. Metal Container Corporation Bruce Grant The Estes Group John Hannon Rocky Mountain National Park Judy Lamy Retired Ken Larson All Budget Inn David Novic Warming House Brad Sishc Bank of Colorado Donna Stiens Retired John Tucker Sunnyside Knoll Resort Danial Via Wild Spirits Ltd EP 2017 Economic Advisory Committee Doug Frisbee Rita Kurelja Goal Team


Visioning Process: Visioning Process Goal Team: Town Staff & Board EP 2017 Economic Advisory Committee Estes Valley Businesses & Residents Market and Economic Data RRC Economic Development Study Baseline – How we’re doing Macro Trends Issues & Opportunities Strengths & weaknesses Who we are/aren’t 2017 ECONOMIC VISION Themes


A realistic vision for a sustainable economy requires a holistic approach : A realistic vision for a sustainable economy requires a holistic approach


Estes Park Past and Future: Estes Park Past and Future Joel Estes 1859 Hunting Pioneers Stage/Tourism FO Stanley 1903 National Park 2006 Pioneering Mountaineering Tourism Resort for affluent traveler National Vacation Destination Day Trippers 2017 Horse & Foot Wagon & Stage Automobile WW I Depression Cheap Energy Commercial Jets Front Range Growth Explosion Disposable income shrinking Energy Costs Growing Disposable income Growing WW II Gas Rationing Radio Magazines TV Color TV Internet Home Computer Commercial Air Travel Interstate Highways What Lies Ahead? Newspaper Cell Phone 9/11 Iraq War Energy Crisis Baby Boomers born Local Economy------ Regional Economy ------------------------------ National Economy ----------------------------------- Global Economy ? Titusville


How are we doing?: How are we doing? The Baseline


Slide12: Who We Are…. A Premier Mountain Resort Community Gateway to Rocky Mountain National Park


Slide13: We Are Not…. A Magnet for Industrial Development


Slide14: General Fund Revenues Taxes Licenses & Permits Intergovernmental Charges for Services Fines Rental Income Investment Income Miscellaneous Operating Transfers In Other Financing Sources Expenditures General Government Public Safety Public Works Culture & Recreation Operating Transfers Out Other Financing Uses Estes Park General Fund Revenues and Expenditures


Sales Tax revenue is key to economic sustainability: Sales Tax revenue is key to economic sustainability (000) $


What Lies Ahead???: What Lies Ahead??? Challenges and Opportunities


Identified Challenges: Identified Challenges Population Housing Retail Base Energy Disposable Income Transportation and Parking Mountain Resort Competition Tax Structure Infrastructure


Demographics: Demographics A growing retirement population


National Demographic Changes: National Demographic Changes US population is aging Aging population and retirement of boomers. Over 60 group will reach 45%+ of population Changing expectations and needs. Growing shortage of 24-45 year olds will impact workforce


Estes Valley Population: Estes Valley Population People from all walks of life, but a bit different from the norm An older population Many recently arrived Higher formal education A greater proportion of retirees and professionals Population doubles during peak season


Estes Valley 60+ population will see substantial growth: Estes Valley 60+ population will see substantial growth constant profile assumes no percentage change. 60+ growth assumes new homes and residents are primarily retirees


60+ Group could = 50% of the Estes Valley population by 2020: 60+ Group could = 50% of the Estes Valley population by 2020


Pension, Social Security, Medicare Issues: Pension, Social Security, Medicare Issues


The Boomers Are Coming…: The Boomers Are Coming… Unique population segment Born between January 1, 1946 and December 31, 1964 Grew up expecting to be winners Age 50+ own over 70% of the financial assets. The “want it - get it” generation. Demanding customers. Little product loyalty. Think of themselves as young, not seniors Shun products pitched to them as “older” consumers


Retail: Retail Important – Struggling – Opportunities Emerging


Local Retail is Struggling: Local Retail is Struggling


Primary Sales Tax Revenues: Primary Sales Tax Revenues


2005 vs. 2004 Sales Tax Revenues: 2005 vs. 2004 Sales Tax Revenues


2005 Sales Tax RevenuesMuch of General Merchandise is discretionary : 2005 Sales Tax Revenues Much of General Merchandise is discretionary


2005 vs. 2004 Sales Tax Change for general merchandise.: 2005 vs. 2004 Sales Tax Change for general merchandise.


Slide34: Creating attractive and functional retail environments is particularly important to resort communities because public spaces are an intrinsic part of a visitor’s experience. Resort retail is more than a necessary convenience. To operate successfully, resort retail requires a subtle blend of sociability, diverse activities, pedestrian linkages and ambiance. (Aspen Retail Analysis – BBC Research and Consulting for Aspen City Council – January 2003) The Retail Environment and Sense of Place


Housing Costs: Housing Costs Rapidly outpacing employee affordability


Slide36: Housing… a growing issue


Slide37: The Gateway Phenomenon


Estes Park Market - House vs. Condo Sales: Estes Park Market - House vs. Condo Sales Includes Pinewood to Allenspark, Drake and Glen Haven as well as the Estes Valley.


Estes Park less expensive than many Mountain Resorts: Estes Park less expensive than many Mountain Resorts (000$)


Estes Market - House vs. Condo Average Selling Price Trend: Estes Market - House vs. Condo Average Selling Price Trend Includes Pinewood to Allenspark, Drake and Glen Haven as well as the Estes Valley.


Energy: Energy A threat and an opportunity


Slide42: Energy - a significant issue


Hubbert’s Peak: Hubbert’s Peak M. King Hubbert introduced the accepted model of petroleum production in 1957


Global Petroleum Reserves are Shrinking: Global Petroleum Reserves are Shrinking Geologist Dr. Colin Campbell Global use increasing at 2%/year


Slide45: “Energy will be one of the defining issues of this century, and one thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over. What we all do next will determine how well we meet the energy needs of the entire world in this century and beyond. ” – Chevron “The world has never faced a problem like this” – DOE Report


Industries Affected…: Industries Affected… Agriculture mechanization, fertilizers, pesticides Ranching Forestry Mining Manufacturing Transportation Energy production


Slide47: Chevron Print Ads


Higher costs and disruption of energy supplies ahead: Higher costs and disruption of energy supplies ahead Global competition for petroleum. Disruptions likely due to weather, political unrest, terrorism and wars over oil source control. Oil and natural gas prices exhibit chaotic swings. Impact on economy and lifestyles. Estes Park tax base at risk.


Impact of higher oil prices…: Impact of higher oil prices… Reduces importer incomes (US) Balance of trade deterioration Higher costs increase inflation and lower consumption. Economic growth slows. Disposable income reduced. Consumers focus on essentials – adjust lifestyle. Financial markets and personal investment impacted. Significant event for individuals on fixed income or with high debt.


Energy impact on Estes Park???: Energy impact on Estes Park??? Need to minimize energy dependence Less discretionary income hurts tourist $ Estes popularity increases Proximity to DIA and Front Range More accessible and lower cost than ski towns and remote National Parks. Broad range of activities and amenities Healthy lifestyle Car-less vacation potential


Our Vision: Our Vision To ensure the economic sustainability of the Estes valley


Our Vision: Our Vision Estes Park will continue to be a premier mountain resort community that cares about continuous improvement in our quality of life, building on our relationship with the National Park, honoring our historic influences and scenic corridors, strengthening our economic vitality, promoting active lifestyles, enhancing recreational and cultural opportunities, supporting families, and protecting the natural environment in and around the Estes community.


Vision Components: Vision Components To ensure the economic sustainability of our tourism based community, the vision includes the following: Community Character Economic Sustainability Natural Environment Recreational Resources Housing Transportation and Parking Cultural Resources


The Bottom Line…: The Bottom Line… Major challenges ahead Need to build on strengths Need to address issues and opportunities Need to work together as a community.


The Bottom Line…: The Bottom Line… Need to build on strengths National Park Natural surroundings Services and amenities Growing retirement community Our people


The Bottom Line…: The Bottom Line… Need to improve the visitor and resident experience Transportation & parking Indoor/outdoor recreation Cultural options Sense of community Affordability


What’s Next???: What’s Next??? Town Board will use as blueprint for developing strategies and actionable items. 2017 Advisory Team will assist Town Board and staff in planning and implementation. Need to engage the entire Estes Valley.


What have we accomplished?: What have we accomplished? Identified strengths and weaknesses Established who we are and who we are not Identified emerging issues and opportunities Established a basis for managed and sustainable economic growth


Trend is Not Destiny: Embracing The Future Trend is Not Destiny


It takes all of us!!! to achieve a sustainable economy!: It takes all of us!!! to achieve a sustainable economy!