COP8 Leary Oct2002

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Advancing Science and Building Capacity to Support Adaptation: 

Advancing Science and Building Capacity to Support Adaptation The AIACC Project Neil Leary Adaptation Day - COP8 Habitat Center, New Delhi 28 October 2002


IPCC Third Assessment Report affirmed Developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change Adaptation is necessary as a complement to greenhouse gas emission reductions Attention has focused on the need to develop adaptation strategies that would be effective in developing countries.

Developing sound adaptation strategies requires good science: 

Developing sound adaptation strategies requires good science Scientific investigation needed to answer: Who are most vulnerable? To what are they vulnerable? What are the causes of their vulnerability? What are their options for adaptation and what are the consequences and costs of adaptation? Answering these questions can help to identify effective adaptation strategies

But . . .: 

But . . . Scientific understanding is incomplete Though sufficient to begin acting, Must continually add to knowledge and adjust policies accordingly Scientific and technical capacity is generally deficient in developing countries There is a need to advance scientific understanding and build capacity to support adaptation actions in developing countries

AIACC is a project developed to address these needs: 

AIACC is a project developed to address these needs Advance scientific understanding Build and enhance scientific and technical capacities in developing countries Engage with stakeholders to produce information useful for adaptation planning Contribute to National Communications and National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA)

AIACC Partners: 

AIACC Partners Proposal for this global, 4-year initiative developed in collaboration with IPCC, UNEP, START, and TWAS Global Environment Facility (GEF) provided primary funding (7.5 million USD) USAID, USEPA and World Bank have provided supplemental funding Participating institutions in developing countries have provided collateral funding

24 regional studies funded: 

24 regional studies funded 150+ proposals submitted in 2001 for regional studies of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Proposals were peer reviewed Awards made in 2002 based on Scientific merit Regional significance

AIACC studies active in 46 developing countries: 

AIACC studies active in 46 developing countries Each study involves a team of scientists from multiple disciplines 235+ scientists from developing countries participating as lead investigators 60+ graduate and undergraduate students 40+ scientists from developed countries collaborating

Support provided to each study: 

Support provided to each study 3-years research funding (100k to 225k USD) Participation in Training Mentoring Scientific network

Activities in 2002: 

Activities in 2002 24 regional studies launched 3 workshops held to Assist with refining study designs and implementation Provide training in methods for constructing climate change scenarios and assessment of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Mentoring activities initiated

Activities in 2003: 

Activities in 2003 24 studies will continue their research Workshops in Africa, Asia and Latin America Present and discuss preliminary results Share expertise, collaborate to solve problems Capacity building activities Visiting scientist programs, training courses, etc Stakeholder engagement activities Development of web-based information network

2nd-Generation Assessments: 

2nd-Generation Assessments Emphasize understanding vulnerabilities Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why? Explore multiple, interacting stresses Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land use change, urbanization, . . . Evaluate responses, adaptations Focus responses on causes of vulnerability Engage stakeholders Enhance relevance, utility, credibility

Framework for “2nd Generation” Assessment: 

Framework for “2nd Generation” Assessment

Comparison of 1st & 2nd Generation Assessments: 

Comparison of 1st & 2nd Generation Assessments 1st Generation Motivation: how bad are the risks? Modus: to “predict” impacts Careful attention to modeling future exposure Typically focus on a single stress Other causes of vulnerability get little attention Treatment of adaptation is ad hoc, afterthought 2nd Generation Motivation: what responses can reduce risks? Modus: to investigate causes of vulnerability Careful attention to social causes of vulnerability Multiple stresses considered Recent experience with hazards, stresses used as analogues Treatment of adaptation central

Examples of AIACC regional studies: 

Examples of AIACC regional studies

Integrated Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watersheds and Communities of Southeast Asia: 

Integrated Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watersheds and Communities of Southeast Asia Philippines and Indonesia University of Philippines at Los Banos Institute Pertanian Bogor Impacts of climate change and land use change on water resources, forest ecosystems and social systems in selected watersheds Vulnerability of people dependent upon these resources Evaluate adaptation strategies Train scientists from Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia

Drought and vulnerability of rural households in W. African Sahel : 

Drought and vulnerability of rural households in W. African Sahel Nigeria and Mali University of Jos, Nigeria Institut D’Economie Rural, Mali Past/present vulnerabilities of household food & livelihood security from drought to be evaluated using survey techniques and observational data Develop and apply models of future vulnerabilities and adaptive responses under scenarios of climate change. Attempt to identify thresholds for coping with climatic extremes and evaluate risks of exceeding thresholds in future climate

Water resources, extreme events and climate change in Central America: 

Water resources, extreme events and climate change in Central America Guatamala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama University of Costa Rica Comite Regional de Recursos Hidraulicos Vulnerabilities to extreme events will be analyzed in context of regional dynamics. Scenarios of future climate change and extremes will be developed. Impacts on water resources and water uses will be assessed. Adaptation capacity, mechanisms and options will be evaluated.

Coastal vulnerability and adaptation in Pacific Island Countries: 

Coastal vulnerability and adaptation in Pacific Island Countries Fiji and Cook Islands University of the South Pacific, Fiji South Pacific Regional Environment Programme International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, New Zealand Integrated assessment of biophysical impacts on coasts, agriculture, water resources and health for scenarios of climate change, sea level rise, and socioeconomic change. Develop new models to evaluate human consequences and vulnerabilities. Identify and evaluate adaptation options.

Anticipated outcomes: 

Anticipated outcomes Publication of peer reviewed papers. Increased numbers of developing country researchers who are actively engaged in global change research. Increased participation of developing country scientists in future assessments of IPCC. Wider understanding of climate change issues among stakeholder groups in developing countries. Use of AIACC generated information in National Communications and NAPAs.

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