Martin ISU March06

Slide1: 

Evolution of NASA’s Exploration Vision Gary Martin March, 2006

Overview: 

Overview Decadal Planning Team (DPT) /NASA Exploration Team (NEXT) Space Architect Team New Vision for Space Exploration

Decadal Planning Team (DPT) NASA Exploration Team (NEXT)1999-2002: 

Decadal Planning Team (DPT) NASA Exploration Team (NEXT) 1999-2002

NASA Exploration Team (NEXT): 

NASA Exploration Team (NEXT) Chartered in June 1999 as the Decade Planning Team (DPT) to create an integrated strategy for science-driven space exploration…not destination-driven Coordinated a team across the entire Agency: a badgeless “virtual Center” with 100+ senior participants from all Centers Focused on revolutionary — not evolutionary — approaches: pushing the boundaries to do the “impossible” Developed alternative scenarios, architectures, and mission concepts to achieve NASA science goals with > 10-year horizon Developed technology roadmaps, investment priorities, and initiatives: In-Space Propulsion (FY02 Initiative) Nuclear Systems Initiative (FY03 Initiative) Space Radiation Program (FY03 Initiative)

Slide5: 

Decadal Planning Team/NASA Exploration Team 1999-2002 Process Space Act & NASA Strategic Plan Science : Questions, Pursuits, Activities Requirements and Systems Engineering Programmatic and Technology Road Maps Gap Analysis Architectural Studies & Technology Trades Strategic investments, Technology Requirements, Priorities, and New Initiatives Products:

Science Drivers Determine Destinations(Selected Examples): 

• History of major Solar System events • Effects of deep space on cells • Impact of human and natural events upon Earth • Origin of life in the Solar System • Planetary sample analysis: absolute age determination “calibrating the clocks” • Measurement of genomic responses to radiation • Measurement of Earth’s vital signs “taking the pulse” • Detection of bio-markers and hospitable environments Moon Mars Asteroids Venus Beyond Van Allen belts Earth orbits Libration points Mars Europa Titan Cometary nuclei Libration points • How did the Solar System evolve? • How do humans adapt to space? • What is Earth’s sustainability and habitability? • Is there Life beyond the planet of origin? • Origin of life in the Universe Science Drivers Determine Destinations (Selected Examples) Vision Exploration of Life in the Universe Pursuits Activities Science Questions Destinations

The Places We Could Go: 

Mars The Moon Earth-Moon L1 Asteroids or Other Targets... Earth and LEO The Earth’s Neighborhood Accessible Planetary Surfaces Outer Planets Discover pale blue dots with gigantic telescopes Discover Solar System history Discover traces of life Discover life in Europa’s oceans Sun-Earth L2 Discover valuable resources L1 L2 The Places We Could Go

Stepping Stones: 

Sustainable Planetary Surfaces Go anywhere, anytime Earth and LEO Earth’s Neighborhood Accessible Planetary Surface Space Station experience Solar System learning Technology advancements Traveling out to ~1.5 AU, and beyond Staying for indefinite periods Enabling sustainable scientific research Living and working on another planet Traveling out to 1.5 AU Staying for 1-3 years Enabling tactical investigations Visiting and working on another planet Traveling up to 1.5 million km Staying for 50-100 days Enabling huge optical systems Living in deep space Stepping Stones

Slide9: 

Stepping Stones Capability Development

Key Technology Challenges: 

Key Technology Challenges Space Transportation Safe, fast, and efficient Affordable, Abundant Power Solar and nuclear Crew Health and Safety Counter measures and medical autonomy Optimized Robotic and Human Operations Dramatically higher productivity; on-site intelligence Space Systems Performance Advanced materials, low-mass, self-healing, self-assembly, self-sufficiency…

Progressive Exploration Capabilities: 

2010+ 2020+ 2030+ Now Sustainable Planetary Surface Capability Accessible Planetary Surface Capability Current launch systems Payload: 40mt In-space propulsion, Isp>1000 sec, high thrust Power systems, >200 w/kg Integrated Human/ robotic capabilities Crew countermeasures for 100 days Closure of water/air systems Materials, factor of 9 Integrated Vehicle Health Monitoring ETO $/kg (under review) Payload: ~100mt In-space propulsion, Isp>3000 sec, high thrust Power systems, >500 w/kg Robotic aggregation/assembly Crew countermeasures for 1-3 years Complete closure of air/water; options for food Materials, factor of 20 Micro-/Nano- avionics ETO $/kg (under review) Payload: 100+mt In-space propulsion, Isp>3000 sec, high thrust Sustainable power systems Intelligent systems, orbital and planetary Crew countermeasures for indefinite duration Closure of life support, including food ISRU for consumables & spares Materials, factor of 40 Automated reasoning and smart sensing Earth’s Neighborhood Capability Progressive Exploration Capabilities

An Agency-Wide Approach: 

An Agency-Wide Approach Human Exploration and Development of Space Space Science Enterprise Biological and Physical Research Enterprise Aero-Space Technology Enterprise THREADS 1.0 Systems Integration, Analysis, Concepts, Modeling 2.0 Enabling Advanced Research and Technology 3.0 Technology Flight Demonstrations Enterprises... HEDS Technology & Commercialization Initiative (HTCI) Advanced Mission Studies Cross Enterprise Exploration Team Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts (RASC) / NASA Institute for Aerospace Concepts (NIAC) ISE Collaborative Engineering Environment & Costing Tools HEDS Technology & Commercialization Initiative Space Operations R&T Mars Exploration Technology ASTEP Program(s) New Millennium Program Gossamer S/C In-Space Transportation Program (ISTP) Advanced Human Support Technology Biomedical Research and Countermeasures Physical Sciences Research Space R&T Base (incl. NRAs) Intelligent Systems ISTP SLI SBIR supporting (THREADS) HEDS Technology and Commercialization Initiative Space Shuttle Upgrades New Millennium Program Data from Robotic Mars Missions/Experiments In-Space Transportation Technology Program (ISTP) Space Launch Initiative (SLI--coordination) Earth Science Enterprise ES Vision Technologies Advanced Mission Concepts Instrument Incubator Program Advanced Technology Initiative Advanced Information Systems Technology New Millenium Program (EO-X) On-going programs in 2001

Top-10 R&D Areas: 

Top-10 R&D Areas Biological Risk (Radiation) Space Solar Power (High Power) Space Assembly, Maintenance & Servicing (Robotic, EVA) Cryogenic Propellant Depots Aero- Assist/Entry and Landing Electric/Electromagnetic Propulsion (High Power) Adaptation and Countermeasures (Gravity) Communications and Control Human Factors and Habitability Regenerative Life Support Systems Surface Science & Mobility (Human-Involved) Materials and Structures (Manufacturing Validation) Space Medicine and Health Care Earth-to-Orbit Transportation In-Space Chemical Propulsion Nuclear Propulsion Advanced Habitation Systems Space Nuclear Power In Situ Resource Utilization In Situ Manufacturing Flying Systems Earth Neighborhood Accessible Planetary Sustained Planetary Surface The Top-10 Biological Risk (Radiation) Space Power (High Power) Space Assembly, Maintenance & Servicing (Robotic, EVA) Regenerative Life Support Surface Science & Mobility Systems Cryogenic Propellant Depots Materials and Structures (Mfg) Advanced Habitation Systems PLUS… Systems Studies, Advanced Concepts, etc. Technology Flight Demos Requires additional funding in FY’02 Important, but does not require additional funding at this time 13

Strategic Building Block InvestmentsBroadly Enabling Capabilities: 

Strategic Building Block Investments Broadly Enabling Capabilities

In-Space TransportationExample: Interplanetary Transportation Options: 

ISS Mass (~470 mt) All Solar Electric Propulsion Opp-class Tether / Chemical M2P2 Initial Mass In Low Earth Orbit (mt) 4000 Round Trip Mission Duration (years) Trip time is for the crew departing from HEO. 3 - Tether / Chemical 4 - High powered electric propulsion/nuclear electric propulsion (HPEP / NEP) 5 - Variable Specific Impulse Rocket (VaSImR) 6 - Solar Electric (SEP) / Chemical 7 - All Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) * = One year total trip time Min Energy Tether / Chemical In-Space Transportation Example: Interplanetary Transportation Options 7 * 3 6 4 Typical pre-DPT reference mission duration

Space SystemsExample: Mars Human Mission: 

Space Systems Example: Mars Human Mission Mass Savings Normalized to ISS Mass 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Today Advanced Avionics (7%) Maintenance & Spares (18%) Advanced Materials (17%) Closed life Support (34%) Advanced Propulsion (EP or Nuclear) (45%) Aerobraking (42%) Normalized Mass HW Consum- ables

Space Architect Team2002-2004: 

Space Architect Team 2002-2004

Architecture Studies : 

Architecture Studies Architectures are used to: Understand requirements for exploration in the context of other space missions and research and development programs Establish an end-to-end mission baseline against which other mission and technology concepts can be compared Derive enabling and enhancing capability needs Derive technology research and development plans Define and prioritize requirements Define and prioritize flight experiments Comparing architectures specific measures of merit; Safety Cost Performance Mission return Schedule

Architecture Study #1Exploration Metro Map: 

Sun-Earth L1 , L2 High Earth Orbit Earth-Moon L1, L2 Moon Low Earth Orbit Earth Mars Earth’s Neighborhood Accessible Planetary Surfaces Outer Planets and beyond Sun, Mercury, Venus Architecture Study #1 Exploration Metro Map

Architecture Study #1 Focus: 

Architecture Study #1 Focus Assemble and Service Large Astronomical Facilities Evaluate options for the assembly and deployment of large, complex science facilities Understand how humans and robots, working together in an optimum way, can build and service the next generation of space facilities Develop mission architectures using the Earth’s Neighborhood L-points to support this activity Lunar Exploration Study how lunar exploration scenarios fit into mission strategies for assembly and deployment of large science platforms in space Artificial Gravity Transfer Vehicle Demonstrate preliminary engineering feasibility of a nuclear propulsion, artificial-gravity (AG), interplanetary human exploration spacecraft SAFIR GEO SAR Mission Architectures Science Platform Servicing Large Infrared Telescope Return to the Moon Artificial-g Mars Transfer Vehicle

Cultural Context: NASA is a Potential Leader in Shaping a New Future Vision for the U.S. : 

Cultural Context: NASA is a Potential Leader in Shaping a New Future Vision for the U.S. Traditionally American’s have bought into positive visions of the future such as ‘city of the future’. NASA’s vision must fit into America’s larger vision for the future. The lack of resonance of NASA’s accomplishments is reflective of the current state of the larger system. America currently has no overarching compelling vision for NASA’s vision to fit into. NASA has one of the most widely recognized ad supported ‘brands’ in the world. But the brand is still integrally bound up with the Mercury and Apollo programs. Robots are acceptable,but only in their role as helpers to humans. But without human presence, robotic exploration loses critical mass as a compelling vision, and becomes exploration for exploration’s sake. There are no popularizers (e.g., Carl Sagan) or outside driving force (i.e., a Cold War) to help build NASA’s vision. NASA must take the lead in communications. Source: Harmonic Cultural Analysis April 2004

The Good News: NASA Enjoys Highly Favorable ‘Brand’ Equity : 

The Good News: NASA Enjoys Highly Favorable ‘Brand’ Equity 80% overall interest in the space program (39% very interested). 84% feel NASA is doing a good job (33% excellent). 75% feel that their personal lives are better because of NASA’s work (35% much better). 86% feel the country is better off because of NASA’s work (46% much better off). Source: Harmonic Brand Equity Research

Lack of Knowledge is what puts NASA on Defensive: 

Lack of Knowledge is what puts NASA on Defensive Positives: Brand is powerful. Emotions are positive. Vision is desired. Vast majority are supportive. There are no serious negatives; but: Citizens, which include media and politicians, can not articulate anything more about NASA than one obvious thing. While people “believe” NASA does important things for society, specifics don’t reside in our shared consciousness. It’s easy for the nay-sayers and cultural cynics to sustain their point-of-view because they appear to have “facts.” Therefore, when someone is challenged about NASA’s relative value, defense is weak.

New Vision for Space Exploration2004-Present: 

New Vision for Space Exploration 2004-Present

National Vision for Space Exploration: 

National Vision for Space Exploration Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations; Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests. THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF THIS VISION IS TO ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTEREST THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE EXPLORATION PROGRAM

A Bold Vision for U.S. Space Exploration: 

A Bold Vision for U.S. Space Exploration Complete the International Space Station Safely fly the Space Shuttle until 2010 Develop and fly the Crew Exploration Vehicle no later than 2014 (goal of 2012) Return to the Moon no later than 2020 “We’ll invite other nations to share the challenges and opportunities of this new era of discovery. The vision I outline today is a journey, not a race, and I call on other nations to join us on this journey, in a spirit of cooperation and friendship.” President George W. Bush – January 14, 2004

Slide27: 

Mars Outer Moons Extrasolar Planets Moon Identify Key Targets Robotic Trailblazers Human Missions To Moon Go Beyond Mars Rovers Recon Orbiter Phoenix Lander Mobile Lab Past and Present Water and Life; Testbeds and Resources Mars Scout Mars Testbed Mars Testbed Sample Return Mars Scout Mars Testbed Field Lab Mars Human Landings* Mars Scout Building Blocks Lunar Orbiter Robotic Testbed Missions Human Landings* Cassini Saturn Arrival Cassini Titan Landing Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter Underground Oceans, Biological Chemistry, and Life Earth-Like Planets and Life Exploration Testbeds, Resources, and Solar System History Spitzer Space Telescope Kepler Mission Space Interferometry Mission Terrestrial Planet Finder Life Finder Mars Testbed Deep Space Telescope Deployment/Upgrades Robotic Landing Station Assembly Complete Human Research Complete CEV Operational CEV Test Flights Orbital Tech Demos Optical Comm Demo Nuclear Power / Propulsion Demo Key Planned Robotic Mission Potential Robotic Mission/Decision* Robotic Operations Planned Human Mission Potential Human Mission/Decision* Human Operations Mars Robotic Missions Dawn Asteroid Orbiter Begin Exploration Systems/ Heavy Lift Decisions Planet Imager MESSENGER Mercury Orbiter New Horizons Pluto Flyby Stardust Comet Return Deep Impact Comet Mission Webb Space Telescope Space Shuttle Retirement Comm’l. and/or Foreign Cargo Soyuz and/or CEV Station Transition Lunar Exploration Systems Mars and Beyond Exploration Systems 2020 2010 2000 * Earliest estimated date Hubble Space Telescope NOTE: All missions indicate launch dates

Notional Architecture Exploration Research Testbeds: 

Notional Architecture Exploration Research Testbeds P = Primary s = secondary

Notional Architecture Strawman Timeline: 

Notional Architecture Strawman Timeline

The Exploration Roadmap: 

The Exploration Roadmap Lunar Outpost Buildup Mars Development 1st Human CEV Flight 7th Human Lunar Flight