overview 2004 MF Meeting v2

Overview of RMC Activities in 2004: 

Overview of RMC Activities in 2004 Gail Tonnesen, Chao-Jung Chien, Zion Wang, Mohammad Omary University of California, Riverside Zac Adelman, Andy Holland University of North Carolina Ralph Morris, Sue Kemball-Cook, Yiqin Jia, Bonyoung Koo, Steven Lau, Abby Hoats ENVIRON Corporation Int., Novato, CA WRAP Modeling Forum Meeting, San Francisco, CA March 8-9 18, 2005

MM5 Modeling: 

MM5 Modeling Completed 2002 36-km modeling: Poor initial performance in the WRAP region. Added a sensitivity study for 36 & 12-km MM5 Completed 36 and 12-km MM5 modeling using configuration identified in sensitivity testing. MM5 results are now available for distribution on both the 36 and 12-km WRAP domains. Deliverables include updated modeling protocol, reports on sensitivity testing, peer-review comments and MM5 output.

Emissions Modeling: 

Emissions Modeling Developed several iterations of the Preliminary 2002 emissions inventory, Pre02 A – F, 36km: Pre02a: initial test version Pre02b: Pre02: included fire emissions Pre02e: included only natural fire emissions. Pre02d 12-km emissions completed in March 2005. Deliverables include reports, ppt files and QA results on the RMC webpage.

CMAQ Modeling: 

CMAQ Modeling Ran CMAQ and completed model evaluation for each emissions version. Ran comparisons with new CMAQ releases: Versions 4.2.2; 4.4beta and 4.4final CMAQ 12-km Pre02d is still in progress: Initial version had bad NH3 soil EI, currently have results for Jan/July with no soil NH3 EI. Corrected Pre02d 12-km case to be completed end of March. Deliverables include reports and ppt files on the RMC webpage.

Source Apportionment: 

Source Apportionment Early in 2004 decided to port the tagged species source apportionment algorithm to CMAQ v4.4beta. Major problems in the algorithm with mass conservation: Attempted several different schemes to renormalize to account for lost mass. Error terms accumulated and were substantial. Completed an annual simulation with source apportionment for SO4 and NO3 Error term accumulated in “other” category. Results are qualitative, not quantitative

Natural Background: 

Natural Background Reviewed availability of natural emissions data – list of references included in report. Still missing major categories of natural emissions – uncetain if current EI would be a substantial improvement ove our previous 1996 natural modeling. Develop natural EI in 2005/6 work plan.

Compare Alternate Models: 

Compare Alternate Models Selected CAMx as alternate model. Decided to include PSAT, the CAMx source apportionment algorithm which does not suffer from mass conservation problems. Model results delayed due to wait for latest 2002 MM5 and pre02d emissions results and bug in emissions converter – results available for this meeting.

Model Evaluation Software: 

Model Evaluation Software Many updates made to the evaluation software: Recoded to improve efficiency and clarity of code New evaluation plots and metrics implemented Much uncertainty over site locations (“no right answer”) so we now use expanded site list. Experimented with new methods of presenting model evaluation – stacked bar plots and bugle plots. Plan to release “Open Source” version of the model evaluation package.

Fire Sensitivity Modeling: 

Fire Sensitivity Modeling Performed fire sensitivity studies, cases included: vertical distribution of ag buring Natural and anthropogenic fires Analysis of previous base and optimal smoke cases. Difficult to obtain data sets for all planned sensitivities studies: Deferred studies of small fires and point source vertical distribution sensitivity.

Alaska Modeling: 

Alaska Modeling Completed MM5 modeling for Alaska Uses polar stereographic projection Use of sea ice limits in winter PBL/LSM options Preparing Emissions and data sets needed for CALPUFF modeling Assisting Alaska emissions contractor

Training/Tech Transfer: 

Training/Tech Transfer Developed introductory training material for managers Provided some support to state agencies in systems configuration Decided to support only a single, standardized modeling platform. Preparing FAQ to assist in systems and model set up Data sets are being transferred to WRAP members.

2004 Problems and Solutions: 

2004 Problems and Solutions Significant staff turnover at UCR during 2004 New programmer on board still need project management help Included funding for Tech Writer at UNC to assist in reporting. Major problems with computer hardware and disk storage needs for 12-km modeling. Need to redesign SMOKE 3-D emissions data structures. Need expanded and more reliable disk storage.

2004 Problems and Solutions (cont.): 

2004 Problems and Solutions (cont.) Mass conservation errors in CMAQ 4.4beta: EPA funding to revise source apportionment algorithm CAMx available as alternate model for source apportionment modeling. Significant improvements in evaluation tools for presenting modeling results: Still lack formal guidance on “acceptable” model performance.