Slide1 : In the Name of God Most Beneficent, The Merciful
Climate Change Over Africa : Climate Change Over Africa Alexandria May 2005
LONG TERM SOLAR FORCING ON AFRICA : LONG TERM SOLAR FORCING ON AFRICA Shahinaz Yousef
Astronomy&Meteorology Dept.
Faculty of Sciences
Cairo University
email :
shahinazyousef@yahoo.com
Objectives : Objectives 1- The 80 -120 years Solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycles
2-Expected drop of solar irradiance, UV, IR, Radio flux)
3-Effects on Ionosphere
4-Effect on precipitation ,lakes and closed seas levels
5.Expected cooling of the Earth (air and sea surface temperatures
6- Effect on El Nino and La Nina and NAO
7. Biological Effects on Fishery
And Locust outbreaks and Migration
1
Strategy : Strategy 1- The 80 -120 years Solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycles
2- Determine historical effects on the earth
3-predict solar activity
4-extrapolate the solar terrestrial relations and reflect them into the future 2
sunspots : sunspots
Types of Solar Cycles : Types of Solar Cycles 3 Maunder Minimum Type Weak cycles Normal
cycles
Wolf-Gleissberg Cycles (80-120) years : Wolf-Gleissberg Cycles (80-120) years On smoothing time series of sunspot number you get the Wolf-Gleissberg cycles(This fig includes prediction) 4
Slide10 : 5 CHARETERISTICS OF WOLF-GLEISSBERG CYCLES (Minimum & Maximum Years) Cycle 23 is weak
Slide11 : THE OCCURENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGES AT THE TURNING POINTS OF WOLF -GLEISSBERG CYCLES
3 1997 1877-78 1784 Solar induced climate changes occur at maximum turning points, at start and end of weak solar cycles around 1800,1900,2000. Note that 1997 is a climate change year with start of weak solar cycle 23. 9 1959 1981
Slide12 : 6 The solar equatorial rotation rate in degrees per day
change in solar rotation is an indicator that the deeper levels of convection are varying ,hence there is a variation in solar irradiance Weak solar cycles coincide with faster solar rotation leading to drop in solar irradiance. Solar Maximum,slowing equatorial rotation is expected for a brighter sun Cycle 20 is weak
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STATE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING WEAK CYCLES : Drop of solar irradiance
Drop in the number and importance of solar flares
Drop of coronal temperature and coronal magnetic loops
Drop in the flux of solar gamma rays, X-rays, UV , IR and radio waves.
Drop in the number of coronal mass ejections
Drop in solar wind flux and velocities
Drop in the strength of interplanetary magnetic field
Increased invasion of cosmic rays to the earth thus increased cloud cover 8 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STATE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING WEAK CYCLES
Slide14 : And We made the temperature far away from the lamp (the sun)variable 13 Al Nabaa The holy Quran 35
Slide15 : X-ray View of The Solar Cycle 1-Dramatic changes in the solar corona are revealed in this four-year montage from the soft x-ray telescope SXT aboard Yokkoh. The 12 images are spaced at 120 intervals from AUG 1991 AT Maximum phase of the 11 year cycle(left), to late 1995 near the minimum phase(right). The bright glow of X-rays near maximum comes from very hot corona, million degree coronal gases that are confined within powerful magnetic fields anchored in sunspots.
2-Near the cycle minimum, the active regions associated with sunspots have almost disappeared, and there is an overall decrease in X-ray brightness by 100 times.
3- The UV emission doubles from activity minimum to maximum. 25
4-At activity minimum, , the corona still stays hot when active regions go away, the million degree gas is just a lot more rarified .
SOLAR IRRADIANCE DROP : SOLAR IRRADIANCE DROP 10
Percentage Change of Solar Irradiance and the corresponding change of global mean temperature : Percentage Change of Solar Irradiance and the corresponding change of global mean temperature 11
Global Cooling : Global Cooling Drop in Land air temperature
Drop in sea surface temperature
Advance of glaciation
Delayed rise in sea level
Decrease in agricultural productivity
12
Drop in Land Air Temperature : Drop in Land Air Temperature 13 A. Air surface temperatures from Edinburgh, Wakefield ,and Greenwich in Great Britain shown with Wolf sunspot Numbers. Temperature appear to be out of phase with solar activity from 1880 to 1930, but in phase for other years. ( Adapted from Hoyt and Schatten 1997 and references therein)
. : . Notice global warming prior cooling
5°C drop in 1878
recovery around 1900 14 B.Temperature anomalies in Soria, a small town in Spain. Adapted from Donaire (2000) Bulletin of the Egyptian Geographical Society, 73, 127-144.
C.seasonal fluctuations of Temperature for Algeria Aesawy , A.M.and Hasanean, H.M. 1998Theor. Appl. Climatol. 61, 55-68. : C.seasonal fluctuations of Temperature for Algeria Aesawy , A.M.and Hasanean, H.M. 1998Theor. Appl. Climatol. 61, 55-68.
15 Notice
1. Three Cyclic variation of temperature followed by
2. Cooling
3. Rise of temperature with maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycle followed by drop of temperature.
Global Cooling : Global Cooling sea surface temperature 16
Global Surface Temperature and Sunspot Cycle Length : Global Surface Temperature and Sunspot Cycle Length Variations in the air temperature over land in the northern hemisphere (solid line) closely fit changes in the length of the sunspot number(dashed line). Shorter sunspot cycles are associated with increased temperatures and more intense solar activity . this suggests that solar activity is at least partly responsible for the rise in global temperature over the last century, and that the sun can substantially moderate global warming brought about by human increases of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
17
Global Cooling : Global Cooling Delayed rise in sea level
The drop in both air and sea surface temperature will work against the melting of snow in the poles, causing no sea level rise.
18
Global Cooling Effect on Agriculture : Global Cooling Effect on Agriculture
is estimated that a one degree drop in European temperature will lead to a drop of the number of people sustained by one hectare from three individuals to two and to the possibilities that one fifth of the world population will be subjected to hunger(extracted from Abu El Ezz (1980) short translation of CIA book " The Weather Conspiracy : the coming of the new ice age")
In 1878 cooling in Ireland caused damage to Potatoes crops and lead to the immigration of many to USA
Cooling in say Egypt may increase the production of wheat. 19
Recomendation : Recomendation It is advisable to study the effect of global cooling on various crops at different locations on Earth. We may have to cultivate those crops that need warmth at lower latitudes
Slide27 : Wolf-Gleissberg Cycle (WGc) Forcing on Sea Surface Temperature ٍ and El Nino Frequency Global average sea surface temperature from Reids model and the observed time series (cited in Roederer (1995). Lower curve is El Nino frequency and sunspot numbers (relative numbers (showing the Wolf-Gleissberg cycles), Anderson (1990) cited in Sharp (1992)
.Notice
1. Coherence between WGcs and Sea Surface temperature.
2. Coherence between the first WGC on the left following the little ice age and El Nino frequency
3. Anti-coherence between WGcs and El Nino Frequency.
a. during little ice age
b. since weak cycles start around 1800.
4. We should expect increased El Nino frequency since 1997.
5. Since there is increased El Nino during weak cycles and since the SST deacrease ,then we should also expect increase La Nina since 1997 20
Nile Floods, Weak Sunspot Cycles and El Nino-La Nina Predictions : Nile Floods, Weak Sunspot Cycles and El Nino-La Nina Predictions Solid line represents Nile hydrograph during the last weak cycles series. Dashed line represent the weak solar cycles Note
1. Occurrence of drought year at minimum of weak solar cycle (due to El Nino) followed by excessive high flood the following year (due to La Nina). 1997 strong El Nino and 1998 La Nina were forecasted more than a year and half ahead (Yousef 1995,96).
2. El Nino are forecasted for 2008,(2009) 2010 to 2015 (7 years) of La Nina, El Nino 2020,2032 ±2-3 yr. 21 El Nino La Nina 1990 2000 2010 2020 2040
Sun-Nile : Sun-Nile
Slide32 : The solar wind 1- The interplanetary space is full of the solar wind, previously inferred from comet’s tails. 2-The solar wind moves at supersonic speeds near Earth. 3-There are two types of solar wind fast &slow 4-The fast wind is always there , lasting for years without substantial changes in composition,speed or temperature. 5-Charged particles in the solar wind drags the Sun’s magnetic field with them with its roots below photosphere. The solar rotation bends the field into spiral shape.
SPIRAL PATHS OF INTEROLANETARY ELECTRONS 31
Long Range Interplanetary Magnetic Field : Long Range Interplanetary Magnetic Field Note Increased IMF During Cycles 19,21 and 22.
Note Drop of IMF During the Maunder Minimum and Weak Cycles around 1800&1900 and Cycles 20 and 23
expected drop of IMF during the coming next few cycles 32
Slide34 : 5- Drop in solar wind , Be 10 and increased invasion of galactic cosmic rays, C 14 . More Global cloud cover
Shorter comets tails, comets first seen closer to sun
33
UV DROP : UV DROP Effect On Ionosphere
Effect on Ozone hole
24
5- Drops in Solar irradiance, UV and X-rays,I.R lean ( 2000) Notice drop of solar irradiance at all wavelengths during minimum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycles at the weak cycles period. : 5- Drops in Solar irradiance, UV and X-rays,I.R lean ( 2000) Notice drop of solar irradiance at all wavelengths during minimum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycles at the weak cycles period. 27
Slide37 : Varying solar heating of the earth's upper atmosphere During the sun's 11-year activity cycle, the upper atmosphere temperature fluctuate by factors of 2 and neutral and electron densities by factors of ten. The bold lines register maximum values and the less bold the minimum values. Enhanced magnetic activity on the sun produces increases ultra violet and X-ray radiation that heats the earth's upper atmosphere and cause it to expand resulting in higher temperature and greater densities at a given altitude in our atmosphere.
26
Slide38 : AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (algae) Ozone Hole 28
Ozone Hole Consequences : Ozone Hole Consequences phytoplankton images The Southern Ocean is one of the world's most productive marine ecosystems, home to huge numbers of penguins, seals, and bottom plants, and a major supplier of nutrients carried to other parts of the world by undersea currents. Little is known about the effect of UV-B on marine life, particularly the microscopic algae called phytoplankton that form the foundation of the undersea food chain. These tiny plants capture the sun's energy through photosynthesis, providing food for microscopic animals. They are eaten by krill, which sustain the Antarctic's abundant seals, penguins, and baleen whales. Antarctic Krill Less phytoplankton means less food for these animals to eat 29
Slide40 : AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (algae) Proposed Schematic Presentation of Ozone Hole Closure 1.Reduced UV owing to weak solar cycles will revive the phytoplankton
2.10% increase in phytoplankton reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by 5 billion tons= man made CO2 fossil fuel production 30
Effect of Wolf-Gleissberg Cycles on Nile Floods : Effect of Wolf-Gleissberg Cycles on Nile Floods
Slide42 : Effect of Wolf Gleisssberg cycles on Precipitation and long range forecast of drought-flood hazards 35 34
Slide43 : And We have made the temperature far away from the lamp (the sun)variable (13) And We have Descended from cyclones pouring water (14)
Al Nabaa The holy Quran 36
Slide45 : Smoothed Precipitation Cycles
El Sahel
Slide46 : Smoothed Precipitation Cycles
Solar Forcing on Great American & Equatorial African Lakes : Solar Forcing on Great American & Equatorial African Lakes Fig : a Time Series of lake Erie showing the cyclic level variations in sympathy with solar cycles 15 and 16 prior 1930s.
b, The annual discharge of the White Nile at Malakal showing the cyclic rise and fall in sympathy with solar cycle 15. Note also the sudden rise in the early 1960s following the maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycle.
Slide48 : Fig 6 : a Time Series of lake Erie showing the cyclic level variations in sympathy with solar cycles 15 and 16 prior 1930s.
b, The annual discharge of the White Nile at Malakal showing the cyclic rise and fall in sympathy with solar cycle 15. Note also the sudden rise in the early 1960s following the maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycle.
The 1960s solar induced climate change
Forced both of the Equatorial African Lakes and the American Great Lakes to rise.
Coherent forcing on lakes level
The first weak cycle of the series (cycle 12) caused abrupt rise of lake Victoria level, cycles 13 to 15 forced the Equatorial lakes levels to rise and fall coherently ( Fig 6c). On the other hand, cycles 14 to 16 forced Lake Erie to rise and fall in sympathy (Fig 6a).
FORCAST: Lake Victoria is expected to experience cyclic rises and falls with the weak cycles 24 to 26. Lake Erie is to show this effect with cycles 25 to 27.
Solar Forcing on Equatorial African Lakes for the next few decades of weak solar cycles : Solar Forcing on Equatorial African Lakes for the next few decades of weak solar cycles Cycle
23 24 25 26
Slide51 : Lake Victoria 1960 solar induced Climate Change Cyclic variation of lake level 1922 cease of solar forcing on Equatorial Lakes levels
B-Change in general wind circulation. : B-Change in general wind circulation. The 1960s sudden variation of lakes levels either positive or negative indicated climate fluctuation due to solar forcing. According to Lamb (1966), Such sudden changes as that around 1961, are rare and may imply the passing of some critical threshold value of something affecting the total energy of the circulation. The large scale circulation of the atmosphere during the 1960s has produced current that had never been seen in the 20th century before then, but which seem to represent a recurrence of a regime that prevailed over long periods of years before the 1900-39 epoch of strong circulation , and were especially prevalent in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries and around 1880. The decline of temperate zone westerlies and increased frequency of blocking in high latitudes have been associated with anomalies (or changes) of temperature and rainfall regime that are having serious effects in many parts of the world.
Slide54 : Seasonal oscillations of water level in Lake Victoria. The maximum change in level (1896-1934) was one month earlier than the (1900-1970),(after Shahin 1985).
Slide55 : Shrinkage of
Lake Chad
Slide56 : Time Series of Lake Chad
Slide58 : Time Series of Lake Chad
Slide59 : Time Series of Lake Chad
Slide60 :
Fig2: Map showing the main four rivers flowing in El Sahel. Isohyetes
are also shown(after Faure and Gac 1981 and references therein).
Slide61 : Fig 6: The Maunder Butterfly diagram of sunspots and the associated 22 and 11yr. cycle(after Chernosky 1966). Notice the weak intermediate sunspot cycles number 12,13 and 14.
Cycle 19 is the maximum of all cycles since start of observation. Notice that the latitudinal distribution of sunspots of cycle 19(10 yr durarion).) is quite different from previous cycles as the spot appear at much lower latitude than usual. In addition the length of cycles 18 and 19 is 10 yr. each while the length of cycles 17 and 20 is 12 years.
Solar Forcing on Pressure : Solar Forcing on Pressure NAO
ENSO
A- North Atlantic Oscillations : A- North Atlantic Oscillations + low pressure over Iceland
- High pressure over Iceland
Slide66 : The pattern of NAO can be interpreted in terms of solar forcings: a- 1880-1900, with the start of the first two weak solar cycles in the series of faster rotational rate, the smoothed NAO index alternate signs.
b- A switch to positive NAO index happened for the next three weak cycles of the series as seen in Fig 4. The spin rate of the sun slowed down during those cycles as seen in Fig 3.
c- With the strong first peak of Wolf Gleissberg cycle, and the following weak cycle number 20, the NAO index was highly negative., induced the climate change of the 1960s and changed the general wind circulation.
d- A change of NAO from -ve to +ve occurred in the 1980s , again with a slowing down of solar rotation rate at the secondary maximum of wolf-Gleisssberg cycle.
e-In 1997, the NAO was switched from +ve to -ve. and back to + ve. in 1999 confirming that 1997 is a climate change year.
Slide67 : NAO
Slide70 : 21 January 2005 Aurora Norway
Slide71 : Recent Mud showing annual banding , Lake of Zurich
Slide72 : Comparison of recurrence of droughts in different places with relevance to intermediate drops between Wolf-Gleissberg cycles
Slide74 : SOME IMPLICATIONS OF ENTERING A PERIOD OF WEAK SOLAR CYCLES 1- Sudden rise of lake Victoria level and other equatorial lakes 2-Drop in Land air temperature 3-Drop in sea surface temperature 5- Drop in Solar irradiance, UV and X-rays,solar wind and increased invasion of galactic cosmic rays, shorter comets tails,comets first seen closer to sun. 4- Delayed sea level rise 6- A chance of recovery of Ozone hole 7- increased frequencies of El Nio’s, hurricanes and wide spread flood-drought hazards 37
Slide75 : ُEnd of Solar Forcing of weak solar cycles on the Earth 1- End or reverse correlation with sunspot number
2- Occurrence of deluges at some places
Evidences that 1997 is a solar induced climate change : Evidences that 1997 is a solar induced climate change
A- North Atlantic Oscillations : A- North Atlantic Oscillations + low pressure over Iceland
- High pressure over Iceland
Slide78 : Lake Victoria 1997 solar induced climate change
1997 Solar Induced Climate Change : 1997 Solar Induced Climate Change Fig 6d: The 1997 climate change induced 1.55 m sudden rise in Lake Victoria level. with the start of solar cycle 23. Cycle 23 is the first of weak cycles series. Earlier similar rise occurred in 1878 with the start of solar cycle 12 which was first of the previous weak solar cycles series.
Slide80 : Lake Chad Rise El Nino La Nina La Nina
1997 Rise In Mediterranean Sea Level : 1997 Rise In Mediterranean Sea Level
Slide82 : Aral Sea Shrinkage
Solar Forcing on Dead Sea. Aral And Caspian Seas : Solar Forcing on Dead Sea. Aral And Caspian Seas
Slide84 :
A.on Herring catches in the North Sea
1. Controle of WDcs on fish number. Individual 11 years cycles are also evident in the number of catches as if the fish draw a computer figure of WGcs.
2;following the
1957-59 maximum,Herring disappeared from North Sea and climate change happened
Effect of Wolf-_ Gleissberg Cycles WGcs(Top) On Fishery 22
B.The Sardine Catches Case On Global basis (also east Mediterranean sea ), Sardine disappeared with the first maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycle and the following 1960s climate change but multiplied greatly, particulary the Chlean and California Sardine, with the second maximum of the WGc in the 1980s : B.The Sardine Catches Case On Global basis (also east Mediterranean sea ), Sardine disappeared with the first maximum of Wolf-Gleissberg cycle and the following 1960s climate change but multiplied greatly, particulary the Chlean and California Sardine, with the second maximum of the WGc in the 1980s 23
The Route Of Locust Invading Libya From South-West : The Route Of Locust Invading Libya From South-West 22 October 2004 29 September 2004
5 October 2004 Libya
The Invasion of Locust to Egypt : The Invasion of Locust to Egypt 22 Nov 2004 18 Nov 2004
Slide88 : 8 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov
Slide92 : Flooding of El Kabaa Al Musharafa in 1924 due to solar induced climate change with the end of weak cycles series
Flash floods Over Mecca 25 January 2005 at the start of weak cycle series, due to excessive high energy protons and electrons entering the poles inducing heat into the polar air, thus expanding it and making the Siberian high very strong Peace Be On You
800 years cross correlation between White and Blue Niles : 800 years cross correlation between White and Blue Niles