Presentation Transcript
California Crude Oil Prices : California Crude Oil Prices John Cook
Director Petroleum Division
Energy Information Administration
CA Crude Oil Price History : CA Crude Oil Price History
World Petroleum Supply/Demand Balance : World Petroleum Supply/Demand Balance
World Commercial Petroleum Stocks : World Commercial Petroleum Stocks
Light-Heavy Price Difference Varies : Light-Heavy Price Difference Varies
Function of Crude Market Factors
Function of Conversion Capacity
Function of Product Market Factors
Crude Market Impacts on Diff : Crude Market Impacts on Diff
Crude Price & Differential : Crude Price & Differential
Refinery Impacts : Refinery Impacts
Share of Conversion Capacity : Share of Conversion Capacity
Product Market Impacts : Product Market Impacts
Light-Heavy Crude & Product Price Differences : Light-Heavy Crude & Product Price Differences
Four Time Periods : Four Time Periods
1986-1990 : 1986-1990 Rising differentials
Major Factors
Rising crude oil prices (+)
Light product markets strong (+)
Slight decline in residual fuel demand with increasing production (+)
Slight increase in bottoms conversion capacity (0 to - )
Light & Heavy Product Price Differences : Light & Heavy Product Price Differences
Residual Fuel Demand : Residual Fuel Demand
1991-1994 : 1991-1994 Declining Differentials
Major Factors
Crude prices fell as crude surplus developed (-)
Atlantic Basin light crude production increased (-)
Bottoms conversion capacity increased (0 to -)
Cumulative Crude Production Additions (Annual) : Cumulative Crude Production Additions (Annual)
1995-1996 : 1995-1996 Differential Bottomed Late 1994 and Began Upturn
Major Factors
Increasing crude price (+)
Asian demand for Atlantic Basin light crudes increased (+)
New interest in heavy oil production (+)
W. Africa Crude Destinations : W. Africa Crude Destinations
1997-1998 : 1997-1998 Differential Turns Down
Major Factors
Crude price declined (-)
Increased price of resid relative to crude (-) despite poor demand
Asian demand for lights fell late in 1997 and averaged low in early 1998 (-)
Increased production of heavy crudes, e.g. Iraq (+)
Strong light product market (+)
CA Following World Prices : CA Following World Prices
More CA Crude Comparisons : More CA Crude Comparisons
CA Problem is Price : CA Problem is Price
World Petroleum Supply/Demand Forecast : World Petroleum Supply/Demand Forecast
Crude Oil Price Forecast : Crude Oil Price Forecast
Catch the
buzz on authorSTREAM
Copyright © 2002-2008 authorSTREAM. All rights reserved.