Transport lecture7 China

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ECN 145 Lecture 7: ECN 145 Lecture 7 Transportation Economics: China’s Entry to the WTO – A View from the Auto Industry

WTO Changes for the Auto Industry:: WTO Changes for the Auto Industry: Import Tariffs Current: 80-100% on passenger cars; as low as 9% on some other vehicles WTO: Reduced to 25% for passenger cars by 2006 Distribution Current: Car manufacturers must use Chinese distributors to sell their vehicles WTO: Distribution rights for foreign firms phased in over three years Finance Current: Chinese consumers have difficulty financing a vehicle purchase using domestic bank loans WTO: Foreign firms can provide auto financing by 2005

WTO Accession will place pressure on the domestic Chinese auto industry: WTO Accession will place pressure on the domestic Chinese auto industry Quality must increase – and it has GM’s Buick assembly line is state-of-the-art Other JVs have upgraded their manufacturing technology and product quality Costs must come down – but they will JV executives maintained that squeezing at most 25%-30% out of their manufacturing costs would enable them to remain price competitive with imports

Barriers to imports will remain post-WTO: Barriers to imports will remain post-WTO Most managers on the ground expect imports to increase Every manager on the ground expects non-tariff barriers to limit import penetration 10-15% market share for imported cars Domestic demand for cars will continue to be supplied principally by domestic suppliers

WTO Accession is expected to give JV manufacturers a freer hand: WTO Accession is expected to give JV manufacturers a freer hand Will obtain greater control over distribution and after-sales service Will be able to offer consumer financing (but cannot repossess vehicles) Can deal more freely with the local supplier base (but expect to source heavily from local suppliers) No plans for significant “delocalization” of sourcing parts

The consensus is that demand for cars will continue to grow slowly: The consensus is that demand for cars will continue to grow slowly Most JV manufacturers expect the slow growth of the late 1990s to continue into the medium-term future The official statistics suggest that household income is growing much more slowly than the economy Official government projections extrapolate the growth of domestic production over the last five years into the next five (13% compound growth rate) The outlier: GM Historical studies suggest that the mass market for automobiles “takes off” when per capita income reaches a threshold level “Urban coastal China” is at or very close to this level Other studies are less optimistic

JV Selected Model Prices 2001: JV Selected Model Prices 2001 Source: China Business Update Autostatistics, 2001

Taxes and fees are extremely high: Taxes and fees are extremely high The cost of acquiring a car in Shanghai Direct cost is $10,000 (up to $40,000 for Buick) Driver’s license cost $500 (plus 2 months of intensive training/testing) 8% consumption tax: $800 Registration fee: $2,500 17% vat: $1,700 Other operating costs (fees, tolls, etc.) Fuel costs are comparable to the US Per-capita income: < $4,000 per year Source: ITS-Davis Pew Study, 2001

Data and history are on the side of the pessimists: Data and history are on the side of the pessimists Source: Harwit,CAJ, April/May1999

Roadways are congested and parking is limited: Roadways are congested and parking is limited Source: Harwit, CAJ, February/March 1999

Growth in demand concentrated at the low end: Growth in demand concentrated at the low end Official government plans now focus on the 80,000 RMB car (about $9,700) All JVs are seeking to introduce “economy models” Most JV production has been forcibly steered toward the higher end, requiring substantial retooling Source: CBU translation of 5-year plan for automotive industry

The Agricultural Vehicle Market: The Agricultural Vehicle Market What is an agricultural vehicle? 3-wheeled or 4-wheeled vehicles produced primarily for the rural market Powered by small diesel engines (700cc – 1.7l) Restricted in terms of length, width, height, speed, and not allowed in urban areas, but exempt from licensing and other controls applied to cars, buses, and trucks Provide cost-effective transportation for farmers and other rural residents 3-wheeler cost: $610 - $975 4-wheeler cost: $1,220 - $3,660 Source: ASIMCO market research

AV sales are growing rapidly: AV sales are growing rapidly Source: ASIMCO market research

Are AVs the future?: Are AVs the future? AVs are inexpensive, labor-intensive, low-tech products that rural workers can afford “The agricultural vehicle is already China’s family car, our Model T” Lu Zaihou, ASIMCO “Domestic producers can make a profit selling 4-wheel agricultural vehicles for US $3,000 or less, while global assemblers generally find it difficult to make a profit on vehicles sold for three to four times as much” Jack Perkowski, ASIMCO Upgrading by the domestic producers of these vehicles could create “competition from below” for the JV manufacturers But the government could legislate them out of existence These vehicles are highly polluting, low-tech, and not very safe They do not correspond to the government’s vision of a “world class automobile industry”

The Government’s Vision for 2005The 5-Year Plan for the Automotive Industry: The Government’s Vision for 2005 The 5-Year Plan for the Automotive Industry Steady, but not explosive growth through 2005 Domestic producers will continue to dominate the market Consolidation of auto assembly, auto parts, and motorcycle production into a small number of dominant enterprise groups Extensive technology upgrading Belief in the market potential of rural China, the Western regions The state will continue to play a strong guiding role in the evolution of the industry

Growth in domestic production has come at the expense of imports: Growth in domestic production has come at the expense of imports Sources: 1999 China Automotive Industry Yearbook, CATARC press,Tianjin, 2000, and China Auto Consulting

 There is no room in the government’s forecast  for import growth!: There is no room in the government’s forecast for import growth!

 To accommodate even modest growth in imports, domestic production will have to fall …: To accommodate even modest growth in imports, domestic production will have to fall …

Or the total market will have to grow much faster: Or the total market will have to grow much faster

Tensions in the government plan: Tensions in the government plan Environmental concerns versus industrial development Industrial development wins High technology versus appropriate technology Persistent tendency to “push” advanced technology Short shrift given to the potential of agricultural vehicles Rhetoric versus reality on industry consolidation The theme of necessary consolidation is relentlessly emphasized But this was true in earlier industry plans Policies to stimulate demand Government recognizes the problem, but poses no concrete solutions Free market versus government control Government will still play a strong role in steering the development of the automobile industry after the implementation of WTO Noneconomic state objectives are explicitly emphasized: development of indigenous design capability

The multinationals will not push for a greater opening to exports: The multinationals will not push for a greater opening to exports Most major manufacturers have been induced to purchase a stake in the protected pre-WTO market A “de facto VER” would arguably be in the best interests of company profits Chief beneficiaries of a free market would be Korean manufacturers This gives the Chinese government political cover to delay the opening of the market at the expense of consumers

Empirical analysis conducted to date: Empirical analysis conducted to date Empirical analysis using registration data Breakdown by province, year, production model Publication of these data ceased in early 1990s Empirical analysis using import data Detailed customs data available from late 1980s through late 1990s Can be used to model import demand

Regression of log quantity demanded on:: Regression of log quantity demanded on:

Income Effect: Income Effect As income increases, how will auto demand change? These income effects have been estimated for the three sizes of imports (Regression estimates on previous slide) We can use these to simulated the effects of provincial growth in income per capita

Estimated Percentage Change of Passenger Car Imports: Estimated Percentage Change of Passenger Car Imports Note: Calculation based on author’s log-linear regression estimates with year and province fixed effects. In the past decade, 20% growth occurred in two years; 50% growth occurred in four years; 100% growth occurred in six years.

Growth of Per Capita GDP ($),1988-98: Growth of Per Capita GDP ($),1988-98

Income Effect on Passenger Car Imports-Change in Quantity: Income Effect on Passenger Car Imports-Change in Quantity Note: In the past decade, 20% growth occurred in two years; 50% growth occurred in four years; 100% growth occurred in six years.

Income Effect on Passenger Car Imports- Change in Market Share: Income Effect on Passenger Car Imports- Change in Market Share

Estimated Percentage Change of Imports, if Tariff Cut by 60%, Equivalent to a 33% Price Cut: Estimated Percentage Change of Imports, if Tariff Cut by 60%, Equivalent to a 33% Price Cut Note: Calculation based on author’s log-linear regression estimates with year and province fixed effects.

The Effect of a 60% Tariff Cut On Passenger Car Imports –Change in Quantity: The Effect of a 60% Tariff Cut On Passenger Car Imports –Change in Quantity

The Effect of a 60% Tariff Cut On Car Imports-Change in Market Share: The Effect of a 60% Tariff Cut On Car Imports-Change in Market Share

Combined Income Effect on Passenger Car Imports With a 60% Tariff Cut - Change in Quantity: Combined Income Effect on Passenger Car Imports With a 60% Tariff Cut - Change in Quantity

Income Effect on Passenger Car Imports With a 60% Tariff Cut-Change in Market Share: Income Effect on Passenger Car Imports With a 60% Tariff Cut-Change in Market Share

Conclusions:: Conclusions: Combined growth of income (100% over 6 years) and tariff reduction will shift market shares towards inexpensive imports (from 62% to 81%), and raise quantity from 26,000 to 633,000 units. Market share of mid-range imports falls (from 33% to 19%), while quantity rises from about 14,000 to 150,000 units. Luxury imports remain at about 3,000 units.