BackusCoping

Slide1: 

Simulation of Coping to Understand Conflict Dynamics George Backus, D.Engr. Policy Assessment Corporation Denver, Colorado, USA Telephone: 1-303-467-3566 CU August 19/21 2003

Peace And War: 

Peace And War Opposites? Blends? Wrong Question? You cannot understand the future if you do not understand the past. We dare not deny what the past tells us about ourselves. We cannot make up a future that violates who we are. Belief/hope is not a valid approach. Math and science must have falsification.

Math Facts and Fancy: 

Math Facts and Fancy Conclusions (given “facts) will possibly be incontrovertible. Need to find realistic, doable, change in system to allow sustainability and stable future. Optimization is not a valid approach; the assumptions violate what real humans can do. Human response represents a distribution --from the individual through the global level.

Two Days and then Refutation: 

Two Days and then Refutation The End of the World History: The present History: -30 years History: -6M years “Limits to Growth” and Technological Salvation System Dynamics Overshoot and Collapse: Pacifism Prevents Peace The Arms Race: US and Russia Coping with Peace The Distribution of Nothing to Lose Every Conflict has a Solution United We Fall (Conflicts have No Solution)

Morality is a Choice: 

Morality is a Choice Mathematical not philosophical statement There is only morality if you choose Living in affluent American neighborhood is not like living in the Ivory Coast, Liberia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Guatemala etc., etc., etc. Promoting group-hugs and singing “Give Peace a Chance” to stop war is a denial of reality. In mathematics, you must consider all alternatives (all potential choices). Only when you are faced with the full spectrum of possibilities does choice have a moral meaning.

End of the World: 

End of the World A bit of “garage” engineering A bit of history 1996: Peace: Lithuania-Kaliningrad Border 1974: Fuel Processing: San Diego, California 1984: Cold War: Czechoslovakia-Austrian Border 1971: Vietnam War: Madison, Wisconsin

Waiting on an Individual Extremist: 

Waiting on an Individual Extremist

Very Real Individual Choices: 

Very Real Individual Choices U239+n=Pu239 Available to all who have a reactor. U235 is 0.007 of Natural Uranium Centripetal separation with vacuum cleaner would take ~ 5 years. Fission bomb limit is ~2MT Fusion has no limit Realistic limit is 50MT to avoid catastrophic fracture of earth’s crust. Requires very high tech and lots of $ Doomsday bomb is “too easy” to make. (US has it?) You have something to lose. You are not a threat. But if you believed you were “right” and “they” were wrong…

Learning from History: 

Learning from History 1996: Peace: Lithuania-Kaliningrad Border 1974: Fuel Processing: San Diego, California 1984: Cold War: Czechoslovakia-Austria Border 1971: Vietnam War: Madison, Wisconsin

Protesting War: 

Protesting War http://www.leemark.com/featuredcontent/sterling/sterling.html

Zimbardo Experiment (1971): 

Zimbardo Experiment (1971) Stanford University Student Pacifists Prison Simulation: Guards and prisoners Violence and Psychological Reality ”The Stanford Prison Experiment is a classic psychology experiment. What happens when you put good people in an evil place? Does humanity win over evil, or does evil triumph? How we went about testing these questions and what we found may astound you. Our planned two-week investigation into the psychology of prison life had to be ended prematurely after only six days because of what the situation was doing to the college students who participated. In only a few days, our guards became sadistic and our prisoners became depressed and showed signs of extreme stress.” http://www.prisonexp.org/ The John Wayne effect Fall of Iran and the “Ayatollah”

History – 6 Million Years and 6000 Peoples: 

History – 6 Million Years and 6000 Peoples Constant Battles: Steven LeBlanc (2003) Guns, Germs, and Steel: Jared Diamond Not one peaceful people in 6 Million years. Peace is an transient accident Mahandas Gandhi And Martin Luther King Neville Chamberlain and Hitler Ecological imbalance is also economics and cultural Technology and Centralized Power There is “peace” within a strongly-governed country…if forced. Technology will lead to abundance for all… if only the earth were not finite.

Good versus Evil: 

Good versus Evil MT MG NB SH ATH AH JS PP OBL? Good? Evil? AH (6-20 Million), JS(7-30M), PP(20% of Pop) 150 years ago life had no value anywhere. “Genocide” continues today.

Limits to Growth and Technological Salvation: 

Limits to Growth and Technological Salvation Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World: D. L. Meadows (1972) “Discredited”… except it is still forecasting correctly. Technology can overcome, but at the wrong time. Technology extends the low-cost exploitation of a finite resource. It delays the hard decisions. With even weak exponential growth, there is no time to substitute from one resource to the next. War is the outcome. Mathematical models can change the world.

WORLD3 Model: 

WORLD3 Model

Mathematical Simulation: System Dynamics: 

Mathematical Simulation: System Dynamics Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling in a Complex World. John Sterman. POP(t)=POP(t-1)+dt*(BR-DR) d(POP)/dt=BR-DR: BR=POP*FR: DR=POP*MR Feedback, Delays, DQ as causal language Complete: Constant to Variable, One to Many Fear and greed behavior (Only need fear.)

Population and “Needs”: 

Population and “Needs”

Overshoot and Collapse (And War): 

Overshoot and Collapse (And War)

Detailed Dynamics: 

Detailed Dynamics

Resources and Population: 

Resources and Population At collapse, all die or some WILL die. It is a “war” choice. Maya, Indus, Mesopotamia, Moche, etc. are examples of the collapse. If factions, largest (fastest growing population) wins. 26 members of the human family may have existed together. Only the ONE best predator survived – by destroying the others.

Arms Race: 

Arms Race The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Paul Kennedy Uncertain Mistrust Peace as a Darwinian Dead-End (Is that same ultimately true of war?)

Unlimited Arms Race : 

Unlimited Arms Race

The Rise and Fall of Nations: 

The Rise and Fall of Nations

Coping With (Human) Nature: 

Coping With (Human) Nature

Figure 1: Attention Behavior : 

Figure 1: Attention Behavior

Figure 2: Response Behavior : 

Figure 2: Response Behavior

Figure 3: Net Active Behavior : 

Figure 3: Net Active Behavior

Figure 4: Steady State Pressure.: 

Figure 4: Steady State Pressure.

Figure 5: Coping-Skill Atrophication : 

Figure 5: Coping-Skill Atrophication

Figure 6: Maximum Sustainable Growth : 

Figure 6: Maximum Sustainable Growth

Figure 7: Near the Limits to Growth: 

Figure 7: Near the Limits to Growth

Figure 8: Collapse: 

Figure 8: Collapse

Figure 9: Moderate Coping-Skill Overshoot : 

Figure 9: Moderate Coping-Skill Overshoot

Figure 10: Gradual Coping-Skill Overshoot : 

Figure 10: Gradual Coping-Skill Overshoot

Figure 11: Maximum Sustainable Growth with a Coping-Skill Limit : 

Figure 11: Maximum Sustainable Growth with a Coping-Skill Limit

Figure 12: Excess Repetitive Pressure: 

Figure 12: Excess Repetitive Pressure

Figure 13: Tolerable Repetitive Pressure : 

Figure 13: Tolerable Repetitive Pressure

Figure 14: Almost Burnout : 

Figure 14: Almost Burnout

Figure 15: Burnout: 

Figure 15: Burnout

What is the Probability?: 

What is the Probability? Any individual bilateral conflict can be accommodated via coping. Given a distribution of incompatible (irrational?) individuals, there is no stable solution for multiple interacting parties at the extremes of the distribution. “The End” probability goes to unity in the long-term. Will an attempt to make all have something to lose succeed soon enough?