Islam & China – Remaking Southeast Asia?: Islam & China – Remaking Southeast Asia? University of Chicago Graduate School of Business International Roundtable June 21, 2007


End of History or Clash of Civilizations?: End of History or Clash of Civilizations? Francis Fukuyama Liberal democracy and Western values prevail Sam Huntington Age of ideology over, but world reverts to cultural base of conflict Two “challenger civilizations” – Sinic (China, Korea, etc.) and Muslim World


Huntington’s Map of Major Civilizations: Huntington’s Map of Major Civilizations


Diversity: Diversity “Southeast Asia nurtures such rank and exuberant variegation of language, custom, and subsistence mode that it is scarcely possible to focus the jumbled pieces into a coherent image.” --Stanley J. O’Connor


Main Political Forces: Main Political Forces Democratization Military Economic & cultural elites Rural & urban poor Ethnicity Religion


Democratization: Democratization Democracy Legitimacy Effectiveness Security Prosperity Moral authority of leader Most important where there is lack of confidence in the institutions of law to protect against abuse of power National identity


Military: Military Organized National reach Protectors of national security Fight for independence, against insurgencies Avenue for upward mobility


Economic & Cultural Elites: Economic & Cultural Elites Chinese business Wealthy families Royalty Religious leaders Educators


Rural & Urban Poor: Rural & Urban Poor “People power” Poverty base of revolutionary movements Populist democratic movements


Ethnicity: Ethnicity Chinese economic power South Asians Indigenous people Malay “bumiputra” Hill tribes Multiplicity of ethnic groups may mitigate


Religion: Religion Multiple religious influences, but Clear religious majorities Buddhist Thailand Moslem Malaysia & Indonesia Christian Philippines Disadvantaged religious minorities Christians in Indonesia Moslems in Thailand and the Philippines


Moslems in SE Asia: Moslems in SE Asia More than 200 million Muslims in SE Asia (almost 20% of world’s 1.2 billion Muslims) Arab-Muslim traders spread Islam since the seventh century (reached SE Asia in 1300s) Minorities (localized communities) in Buddhist Thailand & Myanmar Christian Philippines Majorities in Malaysia & Indonesia


Slide14: Jakarta's Istiqlal Mosque


Historical Overlays: Historical Overlays Ancient foundations Stone age (java man, etc.) Australonesian, Polynesian, Malay Asian commerce East – Chinese South – Indian West – Arab Commerce also brought religion, customs and court practices


European Colonization: European Colonization Portuguese, Spanish, British, French, Dutch Political, economic & cultural Covered most of Southeast Asia Indonesia – Portuguese, then British, then Dutch Philippines – Spain, then US Burma & Malaysia – British Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia) – French Thailand – squeezed but never under European rule


Bandung Conference 1955: Bandung Conference 1955 Organized by Egypt, Indonesia, Burma, Ceylon, India & Pakistan 29 Asian and African nations attended Sukarno & Nehru key speeches Promote economic and cultural cooperation and oppose colonialism China role – eased fears Led to nonaligned movement (1961)


Threat of Communism : Threat of Communism Most SE Asian countries became independent during cold war era Communism was the major revolutionary political force With decline of communism, religious and ethnic differences gain significance


Mixed Issues: Mixed Issues Ethnic v. Religious divisions Ethnic & religious minorities in Thailand and the Philippines Islamic majorities in multi-ethnic Malaysia and Indonesia – Chinese minority with economic power Both situations worked against Islamic political dominance


Thailand: Thailand Area: 514,000 sq. mi. Population: 64,631,595 GDP per capita: $9,100 (PPP) Export economy Agriculture Manufactured goods


Thailand: Thailand Buddhist majority Only SE Asian country never under European rule Intermittent democracy/military rule King’s strong influence Militant Muslim minority in south


Democracy vs. Military Rule: Democracy vs. Military Rule Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932 First democratically elected PM in 1946 Army took back power in 1947 Phibun, Sarit, Thanom Thai values – order, hierarchy, religion 1970s – peasant/student unrest Democratically elected governments Military continued periodic intervention Currently devising 17th constitution


Slide26: Coup Needs King’s Support Yellow ribbons symbolize allegiance to the King


Sufficiency Economics: Sufficiency Economics Capitalism & globalization Reckless growth, crisis Too much liquidity/investment? King’s concern for poor people and the environment Capitalist Thaksin programs helped the poor Military – recent inept economic measures


Insurgency: Insurgency Communist insurgency in north and northeast no longer active Malay insurgency in south goes back 100 years – recently heated up Attacks on schools – symbols of Thai efforts to force assimilation Severity – links to global Islamic terror network?


Drivers of Insurgency: Drivers of Insurgency Economic Poverty, inequality, exploitation Social Ethnic or class grievances Political Oppressive government Military/police brutality Foreign occupation Religious Purely religious Linked to local issues Linked to global movements


Philippines: Philippines Area: 300,000 sq. mi. Population: 89,468,677 GNP per capita: $5,000 (PPP) Economy Debt (69% of GDP) and inefficiency Industry, services, agriculture Remittances


Philippines: Philippines Catholic Spain evangelized most of the country – Muslim remnant minority ethnic groups US defeated Spain, took over administration Fought 14 year war against Filippino insurgents seeking independence Ultimately supported democratic self-governance - focus on education and legal system


Political Forces: Political Forces Mainstream politics Elite families & cronies Weak, fluid political parties Rebels Communists Muslim successionists Catholic Church influential


Democracy in Decline?: Democracy in Decline? Marcos took dictatorial power – forced out by “people power” revolution Last President (Estrada) forced to step down Accusations of election irregularity on the part of the current President (Arroyo) Proposals to change government to parliamentary style


Insurgents in the Philippines: Insurgents in the Philippines New People’s Army (NPA) Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)


Slide36: NPA


Moros – Centuries of Insurgency: Moros – Centuries of Insurgency Islam reached southern Philippines in 14th century Spanish arrived in the north soon after Moros fought Spanish and initially welcomed Americans Soon proved difficult foe for US (1902-1913) Juramentado – suicide attacks on civilians Fought Japanese Objected to position in Philippine Republic


MNLF & MILF: MNLF & MILF Moro National Liberation Front formed in 1969 by university students in Philippines and Mid East Support from Libya and elsewhere Leadership split – 1989, Moro Islamic Liberation Front MILF smaller but more militant


Abu Sayyaf: Abu Sayyaf Small but brutal group Wahabi influenced/financed Afghanistan fight experience Al-Qaeda connection


Common Themes: Common Themes Problems of governance Governments unable to deliver benefits equitably Democratic governments supported by poor brought down by educated elites Militant insurgencies Suppressed Islam minorities Seek local autonomy Connection to external support


Malaysia: Malaysia Population: 24,385,858 GDP per capita (PPP): $12,700


Mixed Progress: Mixed Progress Solid economic growth, but Dominant party autocracy and Social (ethnic) tensions


Political Forces: Political Forces Constitutional monarchy Position of king rotates King is not a significant political force Ruling coalition United Malays National Organization (UMNO) Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) Opposition Partia Islam se Malaysia (PAS) Democratic Action Party (DAP) Chinese base


Coalition of Elites: Coalition of Elites MCA and MIC in alliance with UMNO Barisan National (BN) coalition formed in 1946, dominated by UMNO Have won every election Economic disparities, social tensions & race riots led to measures to favor Malay Economic growth kept opposition at bay PM Matahir Mohammed co-opted Islamic issues


Islam & Democracy: Islam & Democracy Almost all Malays are Muslim Religion, like race, provides communal identity PAS grew to be largest opposition party in 1990s PAS embraced democratic process in competing with UMNO Anwar incident – failed opportunity for change


Stability : Stability BN coalition – careful balance between appeal to communal bases and stability Economic development central Ethnic division remain – parties continue to all have ethnic/racial bases


Indonesia: Indonesia Population: 245,452,739 GDP per capita (PPP): $3,800


Indonesia: Indonesia Pancasila (five principles) – official state ideology Belief in one God Just and civilized humanity National unity Democracy by consensus of representatives Social justice for all Held hundreds of ethnic groups together Many Muslims wanted to add Islam and Sharia – blocked by Sukarno


Communism: Communism After independence, widespread public participation in interest groups Communist party (PKI) – On the side of poor, workers & peasants Opposed landlords, also Muslim local elites. Military/senior bureaucrats managed economic assets taken from Dutch US alarmed at PKI growth 3 million by 1965 Potential influence on other underdeveloped nations


1965: 1965 Left-right divisions in military Sukarno Symbol of national unity – untouchable PKI balance power against right wing top generals Sept 30 mutiny by mid-level officers Killed 6 generals Suharto escaped (or was in on a conspiracy) Military leadership/Suharto blamed PKI Rumors of atrocities Used local forces to eliminate communists Real atrocities – 500,000 killed


Suharto : Suharto Suharto put technocrats (Berkeley Mafia) in major positions Consistent with Pancasila concepts of rational state Emphasis on indigenous concepts Islamic groups in opposition Military economic involvement


Bureaucratic Capitalism: Bureaucratic Capitalism Pertamina affair Powerful public figures build private economic empires Ethnic Chinese capitalists Suharto ties with Liem Sioe Liong Pervasive corruption growing political issue


Separatist Movements: Separatist Movements Moluccas East Timor Aceh West Papua


Free Aceh: Free Aceh Aceh home to conservative Muslim community Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh) separatist movement since Dutch colonial time More radical National Liberation Front Aceh Sumatra (GPK-Aceh) emerged in 1990s Post-tsunami agreements


East Timor, Moluccas, West Papua: East Timor, Moluccas, West Papua Christian populations resisted Indonesian authority/integration Moluccas and Western Guinea claimed by Indonesia as part of former Dutch area East Timor – Portuguese control until 1975


East Timor: East Timor 1500s Portuguese arrive 1974 Portuguese abandoned 1975 Declared independence, but Indonesia invaded before international recognition US quiet support to Indonesia (fear of communism) Brutal military occupation 1999 Referendum for independence New Indonesian President UN, US, Portugal pressures Unrest and fighting continues


Molluccas: Molluccas 1513 Portuguese 1599 Dutch 1949 Indonesia given control 1950 Attempted succession Government in exile in Netherlands Transmigration exacerbated strife between Christians & Moslems 2002 Accords & relative peace


New Guinea: New Guinea Island of New Guinea divided by colonial powers Spanish (1545) Dutch (Western half – 1828) British, Germans (Eastern half – late 1800s) Oil, copper, gold WWII – US military base 1945 Dutch retained West New Guinea, but Indonesia claimed 1952 Papuan right to self-determination 1961 West Papua declared independence


Western New Guineaaka West Papua, West Irian, Irian Jaya: Western New Guinea aka West Papua, West Irian, Irian Jaya 1963 UN transferred control to Indonesia – subject to vote 1969 Indonesia took control “Act of Free Choice” ?? US support (concern about spread of communism) 1971 Construction of Freeport mine Transmigration 2000-2006 Separatist activity, limited autonomy, division


Islam in SE Asia: Islam in SE Asia Introduced between 1100 & 1400 AD “Soft penetration” Came through traders and missionaries rather than conquest Overlaid on animist, Hindu and Buddhist traditions Two main sources: Indian Islam – tolerant and easy going Yemen/Saudi Arabia – strict, orthodox, austere


Diversity & Local Flavor: Diversity & Local Flavor Diversity in the region reflected in religious practices Sufi influence through India (mysticism) resonates with traditional animist/Hindu/Buddhist culture Limited influence directly from Middle East Traders/migrants (Yemen)


Links to Middle East Islam: Links to Middle East Islam Historic gulf due to distance Better communications & easier travel Support for Islamic schools Local issues still dominant Common issues Resent Israel treatment of Palestinians and US support of Israel Object to US military action in Afghanistan and Iraq


Unity in Diversity: Unity in Diversity Ummah – despite diversity, recognition that all Muslims belong to one community Hajj – shared experience of pilgrimage Jihad – struggle to live the right kind of life Many Muslims do not separate religious from secular life Obligation to shape the world so people can live according to God’s will


Tolerance & Tension: Tolerance & Tension Muslim countries have traditionally been tolerant of Christian and Jewish minorities Most Muslim countries and leaders have condemned terrorist attacks But Perception of being under attack Colonialism Hollywood Israel Afghanistan, Iraq, Chechnya


Islamic Revival: Islamic Revival Internal factors Globalization – impact of Western culture Asian financial crisis Overthrow of Suharto; separatist movements State sponsored Islamic schools External factors Islamic revolution in Iran Saudi export of Wahhabi fundamentalism Afghan war against Soviets Israel Iraq, Afghanistan


Political Islam: Political Islam Muslim political agenda inspired by Islamic concerns Islamic parties with Islamic agenda Varied factors limit political Islam in SE Asia Resistance by economic elites Diversity among Islamic groups


Militant Islam: Militant Islam Abu Sayyaf (Philippines) Jemaah Islamiyah (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia) Al Qaeda support Philippines – foothold Indonesia – fertile ground Malaysia – worries Thailand – target of convenience


China: China “Charm Offensive” Free Trade Agreement Proposed joint military exercises US distraction


ASEAN Trade, 2005: ASEAN Trade, 2005 Value in US$ billions


China Trade, 2005: China Trade, 2005 Value in US$ billions


“Traditional” US Interests : “Traditional” US Interests Stability & balance of power Prevent being excluded by another power Keep sea lanes open Trade & investment Support allies Promote democracy, rule of law, human rights & religious freedom


Key Interests in SE Asia?: Key Interests in SE Asia? (According to google) Avian Flu China Combating terrorism


Recent Emphasis (2004): Recent Emphasis (2004) Top priority is war on terror Five strategic partners Philippines Thailand Japan South Korea Australia


USAID Indonesia: USAID Indonesia $130 million (2006) Focus on Democratic governance Basic human services Basic education Economic growth Environment Also Tsunami rebuilding Support for Aceh peace accord


USAID Philippines: USAID Philippines $70 million (2006) Focus on Family planning & health Education Economic governance Environment & energy Also Conflict reduction in Mindano & other areas


Slide80: Southeast Asia