logging in or signing up magaddinometrans01 Me_I Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 84 Category: Business & Fin.. License: All Rights Reserved Like it (1) Dislike it (0) Added: April 09, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Regional Economic Forecast: Regional Economic Forecast Lisa M. Grobar, Director Economic Forecast Project Joseph P. Magaddino Chairman, Department of Economics California State University, Long Beach OER@CSULB.EDUAn Overview of the National Economy: An Overview of the National EconomySlide3: The Booming Economy 1997 1998 1999 2000 Real GDP 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.1 Inflation 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 Unemployment 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 Treasury Bond, 30 Yr. 5.1 4.8 5.9 6.2 Contraction or Recession?: Contraction or Recession? Housing and auto sectors in contraction Manufacturing sector in recession Stock Market Correction Consumer Sentiment PlungesGDP Growth Rates and Federal Funds Rate: GDP Growth Rates and Federal Funds RateSlide6: National Outlook 2000 2001-2005 GDP Growth 5.1% 2.4-3.5% Inflation 3.4% 2.5-2.8% Unemployment 4.1% 4.7-4.9% Treasury Bond, 30 yr. 6.2% 6.1-5.7% Contributions to GDP 1997-2000: Contributions to GDP 1997-2000Exports and Imports 1990-2000: Exports and Imports 1990-2000 (in billion $)Government Expenditures Rates of Growth: Government Expenditures Rates of GrowthThe Spending Binge Slows! Consumer Expenditures Growth Rates : The Spending Binge Slows! Consumer Expenditures Growth Rates Gross Private Investment & Investment in Equipment and Software: Rates of Growth, 1994-99: Gross Private Investment & Investment in Equipment and Software: Rates of Growth, 1994-99Productivity During 3 Expansions: Productivity During 3 ExpansionsOutput Per Hour & GDP Growth Rates [Potential Growth at 3.5-4%]: Output Per Hour & GDP Growth Rates [Potential Growth at 3.5-4%]Regional Economic Forecast 1999-2004 : Regional Economic Forecast 1999-2004 Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth [quarterly growth rates]: Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth [quarterly growth rates] County Employment Growth Rates 1999 & 2000 YTD: County Employment Growth Rates 1999 & 2000 YTD2000: What has been different? : 2000: What has been different? We are feeling the effects of higher interest rates, especially in outlying counties construction slower, but still healthy growth durable goods, FIRE, also impacted LA’s economy improving relative to 99 this, in spite of continuing losses in aerospaceRegional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth: Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth percentRegional Construction Employment Growth: Regional Construction Employment Growth percentRegional Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth: Regional Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth percentDeclines in Durable Manufacturing: Declines in Durable Manufacturing Much of the region’s decline due to Los Angeles County Last year, durable goods employment is down 1.4%. Of the 4,900 jobs lost, 6,900 were in the aircraft sector. Aerospace continues to be a drag on the region’s economyRegional Nondurable Manufacturing Employment Growth: Regional Nondurable Manufacturing Employment Growth percentRegional TCU Employment Growth: Regional TCU Employment Growth percentRegional FIRE Employment Growth: Regional FIRE Employment Growth percentRegional Trade Employment Growth: Regional Trade Employment Growth percentRegional Service Employment Growth: Regional Service Employment Growth percentRegional Government Employment Growth: Regional Government Employment Growth percentA Bull Market for Teachers!: A Bull Market for Teachers! In 1999 region added 36,000 in state & local government 24,000 of these jobs were in local educationTotal Nonfarm Employment Growth Region and the Nation : Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Region and the Nation Summary: Regional Economic Forecast: Summary: Regional Economic Forecast After strong growth in 2000, the pace of job creation will slow a bit in 2001-02 Region will not slow as much as the nation Region will continue to outperform US through 2005 Economic Forecast: Los Angeles County 2000-2005: Economic Forecast: Los Angeles County 2000-2005Los Angeles County Total Nonfarm Employment : Los Angeles County Total Nonfarm Employment Number of Jobs Added in 2000: Number of Jobs Added in 2000LA Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth: LA Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth percentLA Retail Trade Employment Growth: LA Retail Trade Employment Growth percentLA Services Employment Growth: LA Services Employment Growth percentLA Government Employment Growth: LA Government Employment Growth percentLA’s large sectors doing well: LA’s large sectors doing wellLA Nonfarm Employment Forecast: LA Nonfarm Employment Forecast percentPopulation Growth: LA County, State & Nation: 1980-1999: Population Growth: LA County, State & Nation: 1980-1999 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS® Sources of Population Growth Los Angeles County: Sources of Population Growth Los Angeles County SOURCE: CA Dept. of FinanceNET IMMIGRATION VS. DOMESTIC MIGRATION Los Angeles County: NET IMMIGRATION VS. DOMESTIC MIGRATION Los Angeles County Domestic net migration still negative: -39,337 Foreign immigration remains strong SOURCE: CA Dept. of FinanceHousing Prices : Los Angeles County: Housing Prices : Los Angeles CountySlide44: Median Housing Prices Los Angeles CountySlide45: Appreciation Rates Los Angeles CountyFactors Influencing Housing Appreciation : Factors Influencing Housing Appreciation Fundamentals job growth personal income growth interest rates population growth: net migration Intra-regional substitution effects ExpectationsMORTGAGE RATES: MORTGAGE RATES Fed has raised short term rates by 175 basis points five times since June 1999 Fed cut short term rate by 100 basis points in Jan 2001 SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp.Housing Affordability Index Los Angeles County: Housing Affordability Index Los Angeles County Source: California Association of RealtorsHousing Affordability Index Orange County: Housing Affordability Index Orange County Source: California Association of RealtorsUnsold Housing Inventory Index Los Angeles County: Unsold Housing Inventory Index Los Angeles County Source: California Association of RealtorsHousing Appreciation Forecast Los Angeles County: Housing Appreciation Forecast Los Angeles CountyHousing Prices Los Angeles County : Housing Prices Los Angeles County Recovery in housing coincided with regional growth accelerating faster than the nation Current prices meet or exceed previous highs; affordability not a problem….. Yet! Higher interest rates have dampened housing market a bit “Fundamentals” for future appreciation remain strong You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
magaddinometrans01 Me_I Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 84 Category: Business & Fin.. License: All Rights Reserved Like it (1) Dislike it (0) Added: April 09, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Regional Economic Forecast: Regional Economic Forecast Lisa M. Grobar, Director Economic Forecast Project Joseph P. Magaddino Chairman, Department of Economics California State University, Long Beach OER@CSULB.EDUAn Overview of the National Economy: An Overview of the National EconomySlide3: The Booming Economy 1997 1998 1999 2000 Real GDP 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.1 Inflation 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 Unemployment 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 Treasury Bond, 30 Yr. 5.1 4.8 5.9 6.2 Contraction or Recession?: Contraction or Recession? Housing and auto sectors in contraction Manufacturing sector in recession Stock Market Correction Consumer Sentiment PlungesGDP Growth Rates and Federal Funds Rate: GDP Growth Rates and Federal Funds RateSlide6: National Outlook 2000 2001-2005 GDP Growth 5.1% 2.4-3.5% Inflation 3.4% 2.5-2.8% Unemployment 4.1% 4.7-4.9% Treasury Bond, 30 yr. 6.2% 6.1-5.7% Contributions to GDP 1997-2000: Contributions to GDP 1997-2000Exports and Imports 1990-2000: Exports and Imports 1990-2000 (in billion $)Government Expenditures Rates of Growth: Government Expenditures Rates of GrowthThe Spending Binge Slows! Consumer Expenditures Growth Rates : The Spending Binge Slows! Consumer Expenditures Growth Rates Gross Private Investment & Investment in Equipment and Software: Rates of Growth, 1994-99: Gross Private Investment & Investment in Equipment and Software: Rates of Growth, 1994-99Productivity During 3 Expansions: Productivity During 3 ExpansionsOutput Per Hour & GDP Growth Rates [Potential Growth at 3.5-4%]: Output Per Hour & GDP Growth Rates [Potential Growth at 3.5-4%]Regional Economic Forecast 1999-2004 : Regional Economic Forecast 1999-2004 Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth [quarterly growth rates]: Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth [quarterly growth rates] County Employment Growth Rates 1999 & 2000 YTD: County Employment Growth Rates 1999 & 2000 YTD2000: What has been different? : 2000: What has been different? We are feeling the effects of higher interest rates, especially in outlying counties construction slower, but still healthy growth durable goods, FIRE, also impacted LA’s economy improving relative to 99 this, in spite of continuing losses in aerospaceRegional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth: Regional Total Nonfarm Employment Growth percentRegional Construction Employment Growth: Regional Construction Employment Growth percentRegional Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth: Regional Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth percentDeclines in Durable Manufacturing: Declines in Durable Manufacturing Much of the region’s decline due to Los Angeles County Last year, durable goods employment is down 1.4%. Of the 4,900 jobs lost, 6,900 were in the aircraft sector. Aerospace continues to be a drag on the region’s economyRegional Nondurable Manufacturing Employment Growth: Regional Nondurable Manufacturing Employment Growth percentRegional TCU Employment Growth: Regional TCU Employment Growth percentRegional FIRE Employment Growth: Regional FIRE Employment Growth percentRegional Trade Employment Growth: Regional Trade Employment Growth percentRegional Service Employment Growth: Regional Service Employment Growth percentRegional Government Employment Growth: Regional Government Employment Growth percentA Bull Market for Teachers!: A Bull Market for Teachers! In 1999 region added 36,000 in state & local government 24,000 of these jobs were in local educationTotal Nonfarm Employment Growth Region and the Nation : Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Region and the Nation Summary: Regional Economic Forecast: Summary: Regional Economic Forecast After strong growth in 2000, the pace of job creation will slow a bit in 2001-02 Region will not slow as much as the nation Region will continue to outperform US through 2005 Economic Forecast: Los Angeles County 2000-2005: Economic Forecast: Los Angeles County 2000-2005Los Angeles County Total Nonfarm Employment : Los Angeles County Total Nonfarm Employment Number of Jobs Added in 2000: Number of Jobs Added in 2000LA Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth: LA Durable Manufacturing Employment Growth percentLA Retail Trade Employment Growth: LA Retail Trade Employment Growth percentLA Services Employment Growth: LA Services Employment Growth percentLA Government Employment Growth: LA Government Employment Growth percentLA’s large sectors doing well: LA’s large sectors doing wellLA Nonfarm Employment Forecast: LA Nonfarm Employment Forecast percentPopulation Growth: LA County, State & Nation: 1980-1999: Population Growth: LA County, State & Nation: 1980-1999 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; California Department of Finance; California Association of REALTORS® Sources of Population Growth Los Angeles County: Sources of Population Growth Los Angeles County SOURCE: CA Dept. of FinanceNET IMMIGRATION VS. DOMESTIC MIGRATION Los Angeles County: NET IMMIGRATION VS. DOMESTIC MIGRATION Los Angeles County Domestic net migration still negative: -39,337 Foreign immigration remains strong SOURCE: CA Dept. of FinanceHousing Prices : Los Angeles County: Housing Prices : Los Angeles CountySlide44: Median Housing Prices Los Angeles CountySlide45: Appreciation Rates Los Angeles CountyFactors Influencing Housing Appreciation : Factors Influencing Housing Appreciation Fundamentals job growth personal income growth interest rates population growth: net migration Intra-regional substitution effects ExpectationsMORTGAGE RATES: MORTGAGE RATES Fed has raised short term rates by 175 basis points five times since June 1999 Fed cut short term rate by 100 basis points in Jan 2001 SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp.Housing Affordability Index Los Angeles County: Housing Affordability Index Los Angeles County Source: California Association of RealtorsHousing Affordability Index Orange County: Housing Affordability Index Orange County Source: California Association of RealtorsUnsold Housing Inventory Index Los Angeles County: Unsold Housing Inventory Index Los Angeles County Source: California Association of RealtorsHousing Appreciation Forecast Los Angeles County: Housing Appreciation Forecast Los Angeles CountyHousing Prices Los Angeles County : Housing Prices Los Angeles County Recovery in housing coincided with regional growth accelerating faster than the nation Current prices meet or exceed previous highs; affordability not a problem….. Yet! Higher interest rates have dampened housing market a bit “Fundamentals” for future appreciation remain strong