SpecialDistrictMeeti ngPresentation Nov06

Embracing The Future: 

Embracing The Future An Economic Vision for a Sustainable Community

Agenda/Purpose: 

Agenda/Purpose 2017 Team Analysis Dialog Build Understanding Develop a Shared Vision

Participants: 

Participants Estes Park Special District Board Members Citizen Information Academy (CIA) Graduates Estes Park Economic Advisory Council (EP2017) Town of Estes Park Board of Trustees Rocky Mountain National Park

Slide4: 

Sustainable Economy Quality Lifestyle

Town Board Goal #1: 

Town Board Goal #1 Develop an economic vision which recognizes and supports the economic component of tourism looks at future opportunities for diversity creates an overriding plan or strategy for future economic development.

Visioning Process: 

Visioning Process Goal Team: Town Staff & Board EP 2017 Economic Advisory Committee Estes Valley Businesses & Residents Market and Economic Data RRC Economic Development Study Baseline – How we’re doing Macro Trends Issues & Opportunities Strengths & weaknesses Who we are/aren’t 2017 ECONOMIC VISION Themes

EP 2017 Economic Advisory Committee: 

Bill Pinkham Town Trustee – Chairman Bill Almond Holiday Inn & Rocky Mountain/Trail Ridge Jim Bangs Estes Park Lumber Eric Blackhurst Anderson Realty & Management John Ericson Jr. EP Storage/Serendipity Paul Fishman 14’ers Cafe Donald Gleich Jr. Metal Container Corporation Bruce Grant The Estes Group John Hannon Rocky Mountain National Park Judy Lamy Retired Ken Larson All Budget Inn David Novic Warming House Brad Sishc Bank of Colorado Donna Stiens Retired John Tucker Sunnyside Knoll Resort Danial Via Wild Spirits Ltd EP 2017 Economic Advisory Committee Doug Frisbee Rita Kurelja Goal Team

Estes Park Past and Future: 

Estes Park Past and Future Joel Estes 1859 Hunting Pioneers Stage/Tourism FO Stanley 1903 National Park 2006 Pioneering Mountaineering Tourism Resort for affluent traveler National Vacation Destination Day Trippers 2017 Horse & Foot Wagon & Stage Automobile WW I Depression Cheap Energy Commercial Jets Front Range Growth Explosion Disposable income shrinking Energy Costs Growing Disposable income Growing WW II Radio Magazines TV Color TV Internet Home Computer Commercial Air Travel Interstate Highways What Lies Ahead? Newspaper Cell Phone 9/11 Iraq War Energy Crisis Baby Boomers born Local Economy------ Regional Economy ------------------------------ National Economy ----------------------------------- Global Economy ?

Slide9: 

We Are Not…. A Magnet for Industrial Development

Slide10: 

Who We Are…. A Premier Mountain Resort Community Gateway to Rocky Mountain National Park

Slide11: 

General Fund Revenues Taxes Licenses & Permits Intergovernmental Charges for Services Fines Rental Income Investment Income Miscellaneous Operating Transfers In Other Financing Sources Expenditures General Government Public Safety Public Works Culture & Recreation Operating Transfers Out Other Financing Uses Estes Park General Fund Revenues and Expenditures

Sales Tax revenue is key to economic sustainability: 

Sales Tax revenue is key to economic sustainability (000) $

How are we doing: 

How are we doing All mountain resort communities struggling to expand seasons. Estes season is upside down vs. most others. Estes performance substantially better than other mountain resort towns. Retail struggling in all the mountain towns. Sales tax revenues more dependant on lodging and restaurants due to changes in consumer spending and retail trends.

What Lies Ahead???: 

What Lies Ahead??? Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges and Opportunities: 

Challenges and Opportunities Demographics Housing Retail Base Energy Disposable Income Transportation and Parking Mountain Resort Competition Tax Structure Infrastructure

Demographics: 

Demographics A growing retirement population

Estes Valley Demographics: 

Estes Valley Demographics People from all walks of life, but a bit different from the norm Older population Many recently arrived Higher formal education Greater proportion of retirees and professionals Population doubles during peak season

National Demographic Changes: 

National Demographic Changes Aging population and retirement of boomers. Over 60 group will reach 45%+ of population Changing expectations and needs. Growing shortage of 24-45 year olds will impact workforce Significant impact on Estes Valley

Growing retiree population is changing Estes Valley dynamics…Younger families are needed for a balanced community: 

Growing retiree population is changing Estes Valley dynamics… Younger families are needed for a balanced community 2000 Census 2020 Estimate

Community Dynamics Changing : 

Community Dynamics Changing Boomers and retirees bring suburban values. Think of themselves as young, not seniors. Active lifestyle. Expect recreational amenities. Building lifetime vacation dream homes. Increase in second home owners. Detached from community issues. Demanding…. Little product loyalty. Less tolerant. Candidates for targeted retail and quality restaurants.

Retail: 

Retail Struggling – Opportunities Emerging

Local Retail is Struggling – Sales Tax Impact: 

Local Retail is Struggling – Sales Tax Impact

Changing Value Proposition: 

Changing Value Proposition Transplants and boomers Age – expectations - needs Income levels Quality restaurants & merchandise Construction benefits. Higher energy costs = incentive to buy locally Estes increasingly attractive as tourist destination

Slide24: 

Creating attractive and functional retail environments is particularly important to resort communities because public spaces are an intrinsic part of a visitor’s experience. Resort retail is more than a necessary convenience. To operate successfully, resort retail requires a subtle blend of sociability, diverse activities, pedestrian linkages and ambiance. (Aspen Retail Analysis – BBC Research and Consulting for Aspen City Council – January 2003)

Housing Costs: 

Housing Costs Rapidly outpacing employee affordability

Land and housing costs are escalating: 

Land and housing costs are escalating Affordability already an issue for many residents and employees of the Estes Valley who provide essential services. Front Range urban areas attractive to younger individuals and families. affordable housing broad offering of schools, retail, and arts and culture Hard to attract and keep young families and employees

Estes Housing more expensive than Front Range : 

Estes Housing more expensive than Front Range Includes Pinewood to Allenspark, Drake and Glen Haven as well as the Estes Valley.

Estes Market - House vs. Condo Average Selling Price Trend: 

Estes Market - House vs. Condo Average Selling Price Trend Includes Pinewood to Allenspark, Drake and Glen Haven as well as the Estes Valley.

Estes Park less expensive than many Mountain Resorts: 

Estes Park less expensive than many Mountain Resorts (000$)

Energy: 

Energy A threat and an opportunity

“The world has never faced a problem like this” DOE Report: 

“The world has never faced a problem like this” DOE Report Source: Geologist Dr. Colin Campbell Hubbert’s Peak

Slide32: 

“one thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over” Chevron

Higher costs and disruption of energy supplies ahead: 

Higher costs and disruption of energy supplies ahead Global competition for petroleum. Disruptions likely due to weather, political unrest, terrorism and wars over oil source control. Oil and natural gas prices exhibit chaotic swings. Impact on economy and lifestyles. Estes Park tax base at risk.

Energy impact on Estes Park???: 

Energy impact on Estes Park??? Less discretionary income hurts tourist $ Estes attractiveness increases Proximity to DIA and Front Range More accessible and lower cost than ski towns and remote National Parks. Broad range of activities and amenities Healthy lifestyle Car-less vacation potential

The Bottom Line… Issues: 

The Bottom Line… Issues Estes economy at risk Tourist based Dependant on sales tax revenues and disposable Income Growing population of retirees and second homeowners who don’t relate to community needs or ballot initiatives. Here to have “fun”. Retail struggling for survival. Resist any tax increases. Community divided on support for schools. Housing increasingly expensive for young families Increasing energy costs and economic downturn. Colorado Tax Law

The Bottom Line… Opportunities: 

The Bottom Line… Opportunities Tourism advantage vs. other mountain communities Close to DIA and Front Range Front range population growth. Shuttles. Car-less vacation Summer/family oriented attractions. Low cost vacation. National Park a partner, not a competitor. Retirees offer potential to strengthen retail economy.

Our Vision: 

Our Vision To ensure the economic sustainability of the Estes valley

Our Vision: 

Our Vision Estes Park will continue to be a premier mountain resort community that cares about continuous improvement in our quality of life, building on our relationship with the National Park, honoring our historic influences and scenic corridors, strengthening our economic vitality, promoting active lifestyles, enhancing recreational and cultural opportunities, supporting families, and protecting the natural environment in and around the Estes community.

Our Vision: 

Our Vision To ensure the economic sustainability of our tourism based community, the vision includes the following: Community Character Economic Sustainability Natural Environment Recreational Resources Housing Transportation and Parking Cultural Resources

The Bottom Line…: 

The Bottom Line… Major challenges ahead Need to build on strengths Need to address issues and opportunities Need to work together as a community.

Need to build on strengths: 

Need to build on strengths National Park Natural surroundings Services and amenities Growing retirement community Our people

Need to improve the visitor and resident experience: 

Need to improve the visitor and resident experience Transportation & parking Indoor/outdoor recreation Cultural options Sense of community Affordability

Slide43: 

Community Character

Slide44: 

Economic Sustainability

Slide45: 

Natural Environment

Slide46: 

Recreational Resources

Slide47: 

Housing

Slide48: 

Transportation and Parking

Slide49: 

Cultural Resources

What’s Next???: 

What’s Next??? Use as blueprint for developing strategies and actionable items. Match with Town Goals. Assign responsibility. 2017 Advisory Team will assist Town Board and staff in planning and implementation. Engage the entire Estes Valley.

It takes all of us!!! to achieve a sustainable economy!: 

It takes all of us!!! to achieve a sustainable economy!